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Wealth Insights | Asset Allocation | Investing101 | Equities | Fixed Income

Investing 101: How To Build a Diversified Core Portfolio

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 Key Takeaways:

  1. Time in the market matters more than timing the market:
    Staying invested has historically enhanced portfolio returns by avoiding the risk of market timing and outperformed holding large cash allocations.
    Longer Holding periods have historically enhanced portfolios’ long-term returns.

  2. Asset Allocation is key
    Strategic asset allocation provides a guide to both meeting long-term investment objectives and benefitting from shorter term tactical adjustments.
    How investments are allocated within a portfolio is a crucial determinant of long-term returns.

  3. Diversification may offer potential opportunities
    Allocating selectively across different geographies can improve portfolio diversification as sector allocations vary across borders and economic cycles in different geographic regions are not always aligned.
    Adopting a multi-asset strategy can improve portfolio resilience and can help limit drawdowns.

Time in the market vs Timing the market

The age-old question. Does market timing work? How hard is it? What happens if I get it wrong? In this section, we present a few points and evidence that puts to rest the question of market timing.

Timing the market is hard, and getting it wrong is costly

The best and worst days often occur together making spotting true turning points challenging. Over 90% of S&P 500 daily rallies of 4% or more since 1970 have occurred when markets were more than 10% below their most recent market high. There can be multiple rallies of this strength during down markets, which can make catching genuine turning points challenging, and missing out on being invested during these days costly.

Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Global, Global Investment Lab. Data from 2nd January 1970 to 29th September 2023. A “log scale” is a way of displaying numerical data over a wide range of values in a compact way. Equivalent vertical distances on a log scale represent the same percentage change in the index between two periods. Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary. Please see the Appendix for important information (including important disclosures, a glossary of terms, indices and risks).

Trying to time the market doesn’t work

Time in the market matters more than trying to time the market. Fear of loss often leads to selling near market lows and missing out on recoveries. Switching to cash after periods of market drawdowns historically have underperformed staying invested in the global equities.

Sources: Bloomberg, Global Investment Lab. Data from 2nd January 1993 to 31st December 2023. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary. Please see the Appendix for important information (including important disclosures, a glossary of terms, indices and risks).

Patience pays off: longer holding periods can enhance returns

Over a longer holding period, the probability of positive annualized returns rises. Using data from 1950 onwards, we looked at the average net annualized returns from a diversified asset allocation held for amounts of time between 1 and 20 years. Longer holding periods resulted in a smaller spread between returns, and even the lowest quartile of annualized returns became positive over a longer holding period.

Source: CGWI’s Global Asset Allocation and Quantitative Research team, Global Investment Lab as of October 31 2023. *The illustrations use data from January, 1950 to October 2023. The net performance results reflect a deduction of 2.5% which is the weighted average annual maximum advisory fee that could be paid in connection with advisory services that covers fees and transaction costs; actual fees paid may differ. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure profit or protection against. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary.


Asset Allocation is a key driver of long-term returns

The allocation of funds within a portfolio is key for meeting investing goals. Asset allocation describes the choice of how to divide between different asset classes and sub-asset classes. The relative proportions of different assets held will be a function of an individual investor’s goals, risk tolerance, rewards sought, and time horizon.

It has long been held as the key determinant of variability in portfolio returns* and as such represents a critical step in portfolio construction. The remainder of returns are predominantly driven by instrument selection (which stock, bond, fund to invest into within each sub-asset class) and market timing.

Once the appropriate core strategic asset allocation is set, the next most important thing is to stay invested.

*Source: Gary P. Brinson, L. Randolph Hood, and Gilbert L. Beebower, Determinants of Portfolio Performance, Financial Analysts Journal, July/August 1986. Also see Roger G. Ibbotson, Importance of Asset Allocation, Financial Analyst Journal, March/April 2010. Asset allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against loss.


Diversifying across asset classes can improve returns

A diversified portfolio can help achieve better risk adjusted returns over time.

​Source: Citi Global Investment Lab as of November 2023. For discussion purposes only. The returns shown were calculated at an asset class level in USD terms using indices and reflecting a deduction of 2.5% p.a. on the Diversified Portfolio and traditional level 3 Diversified Portfolio which is the maximum fee that can be charged in connection with advisory services that covers advisory fees and transaction costs. Data assumes the reinvestment of dividends. The Diversified Portfolio is shown as: 10% Developed Equities, 2% Emerging Equities, 38% Investment Grade Bonds, 2% High Yield Bonds, 4% Emerging Fixed Income, 2% Cash, 12% Hedge Funds, 20% Private Equity and 10% Real Estate. Benchmark indices were used to proxy asset classes within this basket. Please see Appendix for index definition. Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Real results may vary. Diversification does not ensure profit or protection against loss. *Until October 2023


A diversified portfolio may offer improved risk-adjusted returns

A diversified portfolio allocated across multiple asset classes can benefit from different return drivers.

Here are some considerations for diversification:

  1. Define investment objectives and risk tolerance
    A disciplined approach to diversified portfolio construction allows for improved returns and reduced risks in line with the investor’s individual profile.
     
  2. Diversify across and within asset classes to mitigate risk
    Historically no single asset class – or sub-asset class – has consistently outperformed over time.
     
  3. Diversify across geographies
    Geographic diversification can potentially allow an investor to harness the potential for growth in different regions while mitigating downside risk.

​Source: Citi Global Investment Lab as of November 2023. Analysis period: January 1993 – Sep 2023. For discussion purposes only. The returns shown were calculated at an asset class level in USD terms using indices and reflecting a deduction of 2.5% p.a. on the Diversified Portfolio and the 60/40 Portfolio which is the maximum fee that can be charged in connection with advisory services that covers advisory fees and transaction costs. Past correlations are no guarantee of future results. Real result may vary. Diversification does not ensure profit or protection against loss. Data assumes the reinvestment of dividends. *Diversified Portfolio is a USD CCGWI Reference Level III Diversified Portfolio with an allocation to alternatives net of an annual 2.5% performance fee, and rebalanced monthly. The Diversified Portfolio is shown as: 9% Developed Equities, 2% Emerging Equities, 38% Investment Grade Bonds, 4% High Yield Bonds, 4% Emerging Fixed Income, 2% Cash, 12% Hedge Funds, 20% Private Equity and 10% Real Estate. The 60/40 Portfolio is shown as: 51% Developed Equities, 9% Emerging Equities, 32% Investment Grade Bonds, 4% High Yield Bonds, 4% Emerging Fixed Income and 2% Cash. Benchmark indices were used to proxy asset classes within this basket. Please see Appendix for index definition. Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Real results may vary.


Harnessing equity diversification across countries and sectors

Diversification with a diversified portfolio could potentially allow an investor to harness the potential for growth in different regions while mitigating downside risk. Similarly, different sectors perform differently in different economic environments. Accordingly, diversifying across sectors could help protect against the risk of any one sector lagging.

Sources: Global Investment Lab, Bloomberg. Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary. Please see the Appendix for important information (including important disclosures, a glossary of terms, indices and risks). Diversification does not ensure profit or protection against loss.


Duration and credit quality diversify within fixed income

Longer duration and higher credit quality bonds tend to be less sensitive to market movements and have lower correlation with equities. At different points during the economic cycle duration may provide protection against potential equity market volatility. Credit quality is another characteristic to consider when building a diversified portfolio; all else equal higher credit quality assets tend to be less sensitive to market movements and have lower correlation with equities.

​Sources: Global Investment Lab, Bloomberg. Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary. Please see the Appendix for important information (including important disclosures, a glossary of terms, indices and risks). *Long term bonds are proxied by the Bloomberg US Treasury 5 – 10 Year Index (LT51TRUU Index) and US Equities are proxied by the S&P 500 Index (SPX Index).
 

Alternatives may offer exposure to different return drivers for qualified investors

Adding alternative investments to a portfolio may help improve risk adjusted returns. Alternative assets may provide investors with potential above average returns as well as opportunities to participate in targeted, thematic strategies that are generally unavailable via more liquid instruments. However, they also have exposure to unique risks, which include a lack of liquidity, potential for losses, possible higher associated fees and charges as well as a limited secondary market.

Source: Global Investment Lab using monthly data from January 1990 to September 2023.

  • Diversified Portfolio w/ Alternatives is a USD CCGWI Reference Level III Diversified Portfolio with an allocation to alternatives net of an annual 2.5% performance fee, and rebalanced monthly. The Diversified Portfolio is shown as: 10% Developed Equities, 2% Emerging Equities, 38% Investment Grade Bonds, 2% High Yield Bonds, 4% Emerging Fixed Income, 2% Cash, 12% Hedge Funds, 20% Private Equity and 10% Real Estate.
  • The 60/40 Portfolio is shown as: 52% Developed Equities, 9% Emerging Equities, 32% Investment Grade Bonds, 2% High Yield Bonds, 3% Emerging Fixed Income and 2% Cash.
  • Global Fixed Income is proxied by the Investment Grade Bonds AVS time series.
  • Global Equities is proxied by the Developed Equities AVS time series.

Benchmark indices were used to proxy asset classes within this basket. Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary. Please see the Appendix for important information (including important disclosures, a glossary of terms, indices and risks). Diversification does not ensure profit or protection against loss.
 

Gold has historically been a diversifier in downside scenarios

Gold’s price correlation with broad market indices suggests it has generally been a potential diversifier, particularly during periods of market stress. Historically, gold has demonstrated a weak correlation with both traditional and alternative asset classes. During periods of economic uncertainty and market downturns, gold prices on average outperformed US equities, providing diversification.

​​Correlation Source: Citi Private Bank’s Global Investment Lab as of 30 September 2023, Bloomberg Analytics as of 31 October 2023. Correlation Analysis period: January 1970 – September 2023, monthly observations.*Correlation is the extent to which the values of different types of investments move in tandem with one another over time. It is measured on a scale of -1 to +1, a correlation value of +.5 or more tend to rise and fall in value at the same time, while investments with a negative value of -.5 to -1 are more likely to gain or lose value in opposing cycles. Please see the Appendix for asset class definitions. **Please see the Glossary in the Appendix for the full list of definitions for the Market Situations shown (page 34) and for indices used. Asset allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary. An investment’s exposure to the price of commodities may, in some circumstances, subject the investment to greater volatility than investments in traditional securities.
 

Putting it all together: a diversified core portfolio

A diversified portfolio can potentially offer improved risk-adjusted returns

Historically, a global diversified portfolio including an allocation to alternatives outperformed a “60/40” Portfolio of 60% global equities and 40% global bonds, which in turn outperformed cash holdings in both absolute and risk-adjusted terms.

 

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or ensure against a loss of principal.

Source: CGWI’s Global Asset Allocation and Quantitative Research team, Global Investment Lab using monthly Bloomberg data from February 1990 to June 2023. Cash is AVS Cash *Diversified Portfolio is a USD CCGWI Reference Level III Portfolio with an allocation to alternatives net of an annual 2.5% performance fee, and rebalanced monthly. The specific allocation of the CGWI Reference Level III Diversified Portfolio is 35% Developed Equities, 6% Emerging Equities, 31% Investment Grade Bonds, 2% High Yield Bonds, 3% Emerging Fixed Income, 2% Cash, 10% Hedge Funds, 7% Private Equity and 3% Real Estate. ** The 60/40 Portfolio is shown as: 51% Developed Equities, 9% Emerging Equities, 32% Investment Grade Bonds, 2% High Yield Bonds, 4% Emerging Fixed Income and 2% Cash. Global Fixed Income is proxied by the Investment Grade Bonds AVS time series and Global Equities is proxied by the Developed Equities AVS time series Benchmark indices were used to proxy asset classes within this basket. Risk Level III: Seeks modest capital appreciation and, secondly, capital preservation. The fully diversified Portfolio was developed using CGWI proprietary asset allocation methodology. Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary. Please see the Appendix for important information (including important disclosures, a glossary of terms, indices and risks). An investment’s exposure alternatives may potentially subject the investment to greater volatility than investments in traditional securities.

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