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Citi Wealth Insights

20211025slower

Be Not Afraid of Slower Growth

As we begin preparing for Outlook 2022, Citi analysts expect growth to endure. The most likely scenario is that global EPS growth rates could average 7%-8% over the next two years. The period of COVID-19 disruptions and stimulus could give way to a “new normal”, with global GDP gains ongoing, but decelerating. Supply shortages may diminish as consumer goods spending moderates. Citi analysts expect COVID-19 to abate as well, with new social practices, vaccines and treatments making it manageable.
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CitiFX weekly house views and strategy - Oct 25, 2021

Latest weekly updates to the CitiFX house views and strategy
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US, euro area and UK PMIs – continuing rising price pressures the common theme

EUR: Euro area October flash composite PMI falls by 1.9pt to a 6-month low of 54.3 (Mkt. 55.2, Citi 55.0) and within that, the flash services PMI declines 1.7pt, also to a 6-month low of 54.7 (Mkt. 55.4, Citi 55.5) while the flash manufacturing PMI drops by 0.1pt to an 8-month low of 58.5 (Mkt. 57.1, Citi 57.0).
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Fed’s Beige book highlights emerging signs of inflation 2nd round effects in US

USD: Tight labor markets tangled up in Beige – the Fed’s “Beige Book” indicates tight labor markets in the US are leading to further wage increases that are broadening beyond entry level workers – a potential medium-term driver of inflation.
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Early thoughts on next week’s October BoC meeting

CAD: After the unexpected hawkish shift toward signaling earlier rate hikes by the Bank of England a few weeks ago, a key question becomes whether the Bank of Canada will be the next global central bank to make a similar switch.
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The Federal Reserve - will they hike or will they wait?

USD: US Treasury yields continue to rise with at one point, two full Fed 25bp rate hike implied by the end of 2022.
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