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Citi Wealth Insights

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President Trump’s objective of weakening USD unlikely to succeed by Fed rate cuts alone

Fed speak rails against President Trump’s comments for the Fed to cut a further 100bp and entertain QE
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Safe Havens (JPY, CHF & Gold): Appeal for safe havens fade as talk of fiscal (plus monetary) policy stimulus gains

White House rubbishes talk of an imminent US recession while raising speculation of possible fiscal stimulus from a payroll tax cut....
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Temporary Reprieve from Delay in Tariffs

While risk assets generally cheered the delay of tariffs on a multitude of Chinese goods, Citi analysts think that the delay serves to prolong trade tensions between US and China.
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Keep the Yield Curve Inversion in Perspective

While the 3 month Treasury bill – 10 year Treasury bond yield curve has been inverted since March, the 2-10 year Treasury yield curve recently inverted for the first time since 2007, spooking investors into de-risking.
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Safe Havens continue to outperform as markets remain on edge; Mixed US data to still see the Fed cutting rates at the September meeting

Market jitters spike overnight as China’s Ministry of Finance notes that President Trump’s latest tariffs “seriously violate the consensus between the heads of state of the two countries and the consensus of the Osaka meeting and the deviation from the Osaka meeting.
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US rates pricing becoming more aggressive but the US 2 versus 10Yr yield curve inversion suggests may not be enough to avert US recession

US bond market flashes “red” - Record lows in the UST 30Yr yield of 2.0139% overnight, along with the UST 2Yr versus 10Yr cash curve’s first inversion since 2007 – a sign of a possible on coming US (and perhaps even a global) recession, drives a global risk rout Wednesday.
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