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Citi Wealth Insights

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How to Manage Through a Longer End to the Pandemic

The infectious “Delta variant” is changing the dynamics of the pandemic and the contours of the global recovery. In Citi’s view, to “Reconnect the World” and achieve a full, global economic recovery, the spread of COVID-19 will have to be better controlled. This is unlikely before year end.
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CitiFX weekly house views and strategy - July 19, 2021

Weekly FX house views and strategy for the week commencing July 19, 2021
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ECB monetary policy meeting preview

EUR: Citi analysts expect no change in key ECB interest rates this Thursday.
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Chinese growth peaks but remains on track

CNH: China’s 2Q21 growth peaks while inflation surges — real GDP growth prints slightly lower than expected at 7.9%YoY in 2Q21 but remains well on track while the GDP deflator jumps to 5.3%YoY on rising PPI inflation.
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Commodity central banks moving to a hawkish pivot to drive convergence with the Fed

RBNZ ready to commence rate hikes by end of 2021 - RBNZ surprisingly ends its asset purchases (LSAP), by 23 July 2021, one year ahead of schedule on concerns about the risk of inflation overshooting from the 1%-3% target range.
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RBNZ meeting preview – will Board push back against expectations for liftoff by Q4’21

NZD: Financial markets and consensus is now shifting to pricing the first RBNZ rate hike in November this year.
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