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Citi Wealth Insights

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US Treasury Secretary Yellen clarifies comments on higher rates

USD: US Treasury Secretary Yellen moves markets mid-week by suggesting the Fed may at some point raise interest rates to head off higher inflation.
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RBA upgrades activity forecasts but still expects low inflation

AUD: RBA maintains its dovish tone in the board meeting yesterday, despite upgrading its key economic forecasts, by committing to making a decision on rolling forward its yield curve control (YCC) and asset purchases (LSAP) at the July Board meeting.
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US bond yields - the vigilantes retreat (for now)

USD: Citi analysts point to the recent thaw in US bond yields in April as largely expected and expects the summer months in the US will likely turn challenging once again, resulting in higher US Treasuries (UST) yields still. The team lays out four indicators that give somewhat different expectations for the path of US yields going forward with two suggesting an end -of-selloff signals and two suggesting the pause may be only temporary.
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Medium-Term Outperformance Expected for USD

Widening yield differentials continue to favor medium-term USD outperformance.
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A Generally Robust Year Anticipated for Commodities

Commodity prices became a bit frothy two-thirds of the way through Q1, but are generally expected to rebound strongly in Q2 and through year-end.
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Bonds: US Variable-Rate Bank Loans among Preferred Segments

Citi’s Global Investment Committee remains underweight global fixed income but have added to their allocation in US variable-rate bank loans.
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