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Citi Wealth Insights

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ECB accounts of October meeting – a more dovish tone implying policy recalibration at the December 10 meeting but likely no rate cut

EUR: ECB minutes - On the euro zone economic outlook (GDP and inflation) - “Looking ahead, it would be important to consider the possibility that the pandemic might have longer-lasting effects both on the demand side and on the supply side, reducing potential growth”.
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FOMC Minutes slightly more “hawkish” than expected as Fed considers guidance on tapering purchases

USD: Minutes from the November 4-5th FOMC meeting released overnight are not market moving, but Citi analysts read them as slightly hawkish relative to market expectations.
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A fuller list of competing narratives that most likely leaves sentiment mixed and G10 FX majors range bound to year-end

USD: Transition to 2021 is likely to offer a cleaner and comparatively more risk positive outlook to 2020.
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A cleaner risk – on outlook for 2021 but short term competing narratives likely to leave FX sentiment mixed to year-end

USD: 2021 is likely to offer a cleaner and comparatively more risk positive outlook to 2020 likely on the back of –
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Encouraging Vaccine News Boost Case for Equities

Encouraging vaccine news has boosted confidence in Citi’s base case views. The Citi Private Bank Global Investment Committee has further increased overweights to global equities, adding to developed markets (ex US) and emerging markets (ex China).
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Adding to the list of potential risk negative events to year-end - a Fed/ US Treasury tiff as US gets closer to a fiscal cliff

USD: Risk sentiment sours somewhat on Friday following US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s surprise announcement, asking the Fed to return unused funds (USD455bn) given as part of the CARES Act.
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