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Citi Wealth Insights

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Going Cyclical in Asia

Investors in Asia have flocked to COVID-19 defensive or growth sectors like technology this year, while COVID-19 cyclical or value sectors have lagged significantly. Citi analysts expect this relative performance to reverse, at least partially, as re-opening takes place.
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Strong US jobs data but limited follow through in USD

USD: A muted reaction from USD to what is otherwise a robust US August jobs report. Reason is likely Chair Powell’s comments in an interview with NPR quoted as saying -
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ECB jawboning stops the euro rally while bids return to safe havens (JPY, CHF, Gold & USD) as US equities reverse sharply

EUR: ECB jawboning short-circuits the euro at 1.20 but it’s about the pace of gains and not outright levels -
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3 tactical drivers of USD’s sharp bounce currently does not alter the longer term outlook for an extended USD decline

USD: Broad based USD Index (DXY) is back up a 110 pips from the lows overnight to trade at 92.85. This is likely due to 3 (tactical) reasons though none of these seem strong enough to alter the fundamental outlook of a weaker USD driven by the Fed’s change to its longer term goals (inflation averaging and adopting an asymmetric bias to unemployment). Nevertheless the drivers include -
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USD fights back despite a dovish Fed Governor Brainard with strong US ISM data helping – a move that may prove temporary

USD: Fed speak continues to emphasize the shift to average inflation targeting as a dovish pivot -
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USD Continues to Face Weakening Fundamentals

Looser policy from the Federal Reserve and larger deficits could mean a lower USD.
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