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Citi

Bright Spots in Gold

Key Takeaways

  • Despite heightened geopolitical risks in the Gulf, the outlook for oil looks bearish in 2020 driven by the fragility of the macro outlook, combined with strong supply growth from the US, Brazil, Norway and new oil province Guyana. Citi analysts’ average Brent and WTI prices for 2020 stand at US$59/bbl and US$56/bbl respectively.
  • Lower-for-longer interest rates, global trade tensions, heightened geopolitical rifts and US election uncertainty, coupled with record central bank and investor buying activity, are all supportive of a bullish gold market environment in the medium-term. Gold as a safe haven asset tends to retain its value during times of market turbulence.
  • Citi analysts’ 2020 base case for industrial metals is that China eases more materially during 1Q20 and hopes of a trade deal improve such that the macroeconomic backdrop is bullish, which could be supportive of copper prices.

 

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