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Citi Wealth Insights

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Balancing Risks and Opportunities as the Pandemic Accelerates

During this period of uncertainty, It is crucial to maintain an investment philosophy that includes maintaining a well-balanced diversified portfolio and avoid the temptation to rapidly change allocations.
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Growth Likely to Deteriorate Before Bottoming

Citi analysts have further revised down GDP projections for 2020. Global GDP is now seen contracting by 1.6% YoY (-2.9pp). Advanced Economies are projected to contract by 3.6% YoY (-3.8pp) and Emerging Markets, while positive, have also been revised down to 1.1% YoY (-1.9pp) in 2020.
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Europe: Long-term Focus on Strong Company Balance Sheets

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a widespread cash flow crisis for European companies and significant downgrades to earnings forecasts is expected. Citi analysts believe that some of the downgrades and equity price falls could be overdone and may create opportunities.
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Is Policy Enough to Bridge Over Economic Shock?

Policymakers are taking extreme and unprecedented steps to limit the disruption’s long-term effects on economic viability. If policymakers are able to compress a major economic shock into a relatively short period, high levels of financial market volatility are expected for the foreseeable future.
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Reviewing Citi’s Global Growth Estimates

Citi analysts have lowered global growth forecasts for 2020 by 1.2pp to 1.3% and raised 2021’s by 0.2pp to 3%. The base case expects a sharp deceleration of economic activity in the first half, followed by a modest rebound in the second half.
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Navigating COVID-19 Uncertainty

In the coming few weeks, the roller coaster in broad equity and credit markets is expected to continue, with equities potentially biased to further retrenchment. Nevertheless, Citi analysts remain convicted to the view that 6-12 month equity returns after 20% corrections have historically been strong.
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