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Citi Wealth Insights

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An Evolving Pandemic – Opportunities and Risks

As major parts of the US economy reopened, a re-acceleration of COVID-19 cases began with some states recording daily highs. However, Citi analysts think it is unlikely to see a repeat of indiscriminate shutdowns across the world economy as a response to the threat.
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A Pandemic Pause Amidst the Recovery?

As individual States in the US emerge from the first-order effect of lockdowns, the result has been a uniform, major jump in economic activity, but an acceleration in the spread of the virus across half the country. Citi analysts expect financial market volatility to remain high. However, improving financial conditions, supportive macroeconomic policies, improving sentiment by consumers and business suggest that the new economic recovery could endure.
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Investment Strategies for Volatile Markets

Citi analysts believe the 31% rally in just almost 2 months, since the 23 March lows may limit future return opportunities for the S&P 500. Looking out into the next economic cycle, Citi analysts see potentially more attractive opportunities outside of US large caps in areas which have not participated as strongly in the rebound.
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Positioning for Opportunities Amidst Volatility

The road to recovery for equities is unlikely to move in a straight line. Citi analysts expect more volatility and new opportunities, even as some sectors and regions look attractive today.
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Divergence in European Countries, Sectors and Companies

Citi’s Global Investment Committee has reduced allocation to European and emerging EMEA equities from neutral to underweight. Within the region, much performance dispersion is expected between countries, sectors and companies.
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Allocation with Risks and Recovery in Mind

Citi analysts have revised down 2020 global growth forecasts from -2.3% to -3.1%, with the decrease mostly in Japan (from -1.9% to -4.7%). However, the record pace of economic contraction as a result of COVID-19 is likely to be relatively short with an improvement expected by 3Q.
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