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Citi Wealth Insights

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Safe havens bid as nervousness builds about US – China relations; No recession in Germany as euro zone economy likely troughs

Safe Havens (JPY, CHF & Gold): Market sentiment remains nervous overnight with USDJPY once again back below 108.50 as investors await see ongoing uncertainty in US – China trade relations.
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Safe havens bid as US – China trade talks falter (again); RBNZ keeps rates unchanged at 1.00%, no further cuts expected

Safe Havens (JPY, CHF & Gold): Overnight headlines reaffirm (once again) the need for safe haven exposure well into 2020 even if US and China manage to sign phase one of their trade deal.
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USD bid on US tax cut hopes; Technical recession in Germany likely followed by a broad based euro zone recovery - ZEW survey

USD: The broad based USD Index (DXY) trades with a firmer tone overnight while stocks and bond yields are mixed following President Trump’s speech.
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USD & Safe Havens modestly bid as Trump pushes back on trade optimism; GBP up as UK Brexit party not to contest Conservative seats

Safe havens (JPY & Gold) & USD: Trade pushback continues and risk sentiment is moderately weaker overnight with USDCNH back at 7.01, USDJPY below the 109 handle and US bond yields slightly lower.
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US – China trade talks hit turbulence (again) – USD gains across the board ex JPY

Safe havens (JPY & Gold) & USD: Broad based USD gains Friday ex JPY as US trade officials remain coy on China while the University of Michigan consumer confidence index maintains strength.
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Resilience in USD is unlikely to last

Resilience in USD is unlikely to last (especially once the current fog over the status of the US – China phase one deal lifts and sees a sign-off followed by a rollback of tariffs).
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