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Citi Wealth Insights

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US retail sales due tonight but the August 1 FOMC remains the key event; RBA to remain dovish, BoC neutral to slightly hawkish

The only US data release overnight is the NY July Fed Empire manufacturing survey which recovers after last month’s print (that was the weakest since October 2018).
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US PPI implies solid core PCE but July Fed cut likely a done deal; China to undertake more macro prudential controls to stabilize CNY

US PPI final demand rises 0.1%MoM in June while PPI excluding food and energy is up a solid 0.3%MoM.
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Will the Trump Administration buy EURUSD? Fed Chair Powell maintains his dovish tone on day 2 of his semi-annual testimony

Citi analysts now sees FX intervention by the Trump Administration to weaken USD as a stronger possibility.
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TacticalPowell, FOMC Minutes signal July rate cut; Trade negotiators to find ways to implement Xi-Trump agreement; Trump aides asked to find ways to weaken USD

USD trades weaker as Fed Chair Powell delivers his key semi-annual testimony on the US economy to Congress and builds the case for a July rate cut.
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Tactical USD strength as debate shifts to a Fed 25bp cut or no cut at August 1 meeting

USD gains modestly overnight primarily against higher carry currencies following Fed President Harker’s comments leaning hawkish, pointing to the US economy continuing to be strong” with a very strong labor market.
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Tactical USD strength as debate shifts to a Fed 25bp cut or no cut at August 1 meeting; China FX reserves rise as RMB stabilizes for now

USD manages to make further modest gains overnight on the back of stronger than expected data flow (as a follow through from the strong June headline payroll report Friday) that now sees the August 1 FOMC showing just 25bps of easing – a material distance from talks of 50bps pre-data.
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