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Citi Wealth Insights

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ECB stimulus measures likely put a firmer floor in the euro but a sustained rally remains unlikely

EUR: Key ECB stimulus measures announced overnight –
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More positives on US – China trade further firms up risk sentiment; US core PPI rebounds with underlying inflation close to target

Safe Havens (JPY, Gold): More positives on US – China trade further firms up risk sentiment -
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Safe havens (JPY, CHF, Gold) & USD: Tactically bearish as positive risk momentum builds; EUR firms ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting

Safe Havens (JPY, Gold): More positive headlines on US – China trade = more positive risk sentiment – South China Morning Post headlines revisit weekend news of China looking to make additional agricultural purchases.
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Tactically bearish safe havens and USD as new momentum builds for US – China talks; Germany fiscal chatter remerges

Trade headlines more positive as US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin discusses China and trade deal with Japan.
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Tactically bearish safe havens and USD as new momentum builds for US – China talks; US jobs report softer but firmer hours & wages

Safe Havens (JPY, Gold): US – China trade optimism from White House Adviser Kudlow –
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Safe havens underperform sharply on news of US – China talks; US ISM services alleviates concerns over US slowdown

Safe Havens (JPY, Gold): A strong selloff in safe havens overnight versus risk currencies (commodity and euro bloc in particular) as US-China announce trade talks to re-start in early October.
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