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Asia-Pacific | Equities

China – Economic Transformation Brings Opportunities

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China has 3 major policy directions aimed at stimulating the domestic economy amid a global slowdown, per China Center for International Economic Exchange in Beijing – 1) Innovation: The government is encouraging innovation through various means, including tax rebates for new businesses. Government revenue is 65% from turnover taxes, comprising value-added taxes, consumption taxes, operating taxes and custom taxes etc., 25% from corporate taxes and 10% from others; 2) Poverty reduction: 20-30m live in poverty in China, which the government targets to remove in 2020E; and 3) Go green (environment protection): Waste management will be pushed, particularly industrial waste.

 

China could have five areas of rapid growth in 2020E. Although Citi analysts expect China’s GDP to decelerate to 5.8% in 2020E, the country could rapidly grow on five fronts – new-generation information technology, biotech, green & low-carbon, high-end equipment manufacturing and new materials, as well as digital creativity. China’s GDP per capita in 2018, taking purchasing power parity (PPP) into account, was similar to Japan’s in 1990, the UK’s in 1993 and South Korea’s in 2000, when the best performers in these markets were mostly service-related and/or high- tech-oriented companies.

 

 

 

 

Risk Factors: Potential risks and uncertainty for the macro economy could stem from the China-US trade tensions, fixed asset investment downswing, deceleration in ordinary consumption, PPI dropping but CPI rising, uncompetitive manufacturing industries, and a global slowdown. The government could counter these concerns by reforms at the manufacturing level, production entity as well as financial and capital markets.

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