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Asia-Pacific

China’s Jan-Feb Credit Data Remains Encouraging for Growth Stabilization

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China’s Jan-Feb Credit Data Remains Encouraging for Growth Stabilization

  • M2 growth decelerated by 0.4ppt to 8%YoY in Feb, worse than expected (at 8.4%YoY)
    • After the Chinese New Year (CNY), sizeable liquidity was withdrawn at RMB965bn including OMO, MLF and fiscal deposit submission, leading to a deceleration of M2 growth. However, average M2 growth in Jan-Feb went up by 8.2% YoY, consistent with Citi’s expected nominal GDP forecast at 7.5% in 2019.
  • New RMB loans fell to 885.8bn though on seasonality (vs. 3.23trn in Jan)
    • New corporate loans posted at RMB834bn, almost 1/3 of that in January. Total new loans were RMB4.1trn in Jan-Feb, RMB374.8bn higher than the same period last year while SME loan growth likely continued to improve on policy support. 
  • New TSF slumped more than expected to RMB703bn (vs. Previous: RMB4.64trn and Citi/Mkt: 1.3trn)
    • Growth in TSF stock slid 0.4ppt to 10%YoY. Adding all local government (LG) bond issuance to TSF, adjusted TSF growth also inched down by 0.3ppt to 11%YoY.  
    • Overall though, Jan-Feb TSF was RMB5.3trn, RMB1.05trn higher than the same period last year, and the downward trend of TSF growth looks to have been contained and reversed.
  • But weak credit data in February is likely due to Chinese New Year effect and expected and does not mean a pause in monetary policy easing
    • During the PBoC’s NPC press conference on March 10th, Governor Yi Gang stated it is less meaningful to just watch a single month credit data in Jan or Feb, given the strong seasonality. To iron out the CNY effect, he recommended watching Q1 credit data together.
    • Given Jan-Feb new loans and TSF all grew by 10.1% and 25%, Citi analysts believe that policies to unclog the monetary transmission and to support POE lending have been working.
    • Given the expected RRR cut in Q2 and the possible use of interest rate tools, China’s monetary policy will likely continue to support growth stabilization. Indeed, the government work report (GWR) mentioned specifically that the big state-owned banks’ lending to SMEs should grow over 30% this year.  

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