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Asia-Pacific | Economy

China’s Slowing Growth Backdrop and Trade Headwinds

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  • Recent data shows growth trajectory falling below target range. July’s data implies just 5.7% GDP growth in 3Q, far below the State Council’s target (6-6.5%). Industrial production growth fell from 6.3% to 4.8% YoY, while retail sales growth fell from 9.8% to 7.6% YoY. Much of the decline was driven by autos.

 

  • Pressure for stimulus. Fiscal policy, rate cuts and exchange rates are likely to be the main measures, rather than credit expansion. Fiscal policy could possibly focus on infrastructure investment, affordability and rural consumption. On Aug 27, the State Council released 20 measures, calling for more innovative consumer credit products and services to boost household purchasing power.

  • The currency may come into greater play, should the Chinese authorities assume a more drawn out trade conflict situation and save ammunition (in the from of additional credit stimulus). USDCNY had breached the 7.0 level in early August and has continued weakening. With more tariffs nearing their implementation timeframes, the Chinese yuan could face further weakness.

 

  • Within Asian equities, Citi analysts remain overweight on China in the long run. Equity valuations are relatively compelling at 10-11x forward price-earnings, even after recovering from 2018’s selloff. MSCI China is around 7.5% above its low, while A-shares are doing better with CSI 300 25% higher than 2018 lows. As we work through the earnings season, Chinese earnings may risk some downward revisions. A bright spot in the earnings season has been the e-commerce sector, which reported better-than-expected double digit YoY growth in revenue – an indication of China’s e-commerce and consumption strength despite the global economic slowdown.

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