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Equities | Asset Allocation | Fixed Income

Citi Turns Positive on Equities

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The Citi Private Bank Global Investment Committee (GIC) raised the asset allocation to Global Equities from Neutral to Overweight at the recent November meeting. To fund this, the Global Fixed Income Underweight was deepened, primarily from the decrease in allocation to Eurozone government bonds. Cash was also reduced from Overweight to Underweight while Gold remained at Overweight.

 

Anticipate 6-8% equity returns over the coming 12 months:

  • Financial markets are rallying on mounting evidence that the sharp drops in global industrial production and trade may not be justified given that demand growth has held firm. This has led cyclical equities to outperform in anticipation of a recovery.
  • Citi analysts expect a snapback in global manufacturing and trade activity. While this may not result in sharply higher overall economic growth, it could rebuild confidence in the enduring world economic expansion.
  • Global equities have rallied 20% year-to-date, a pace Citi analysts do not expect to be sustained. However, Citi’s tactical asset allocation approach avoids prematurely reducing gains that could be supported by fundamental developments in our base case view.
  • Given political risks and the sharp rebound in markets in 2019, Citi analysts see a high probability that higher-quality dividend growth strategies may still outperform for the full-year 2020.

 

 

Policy risks remain, including trade friction

  • Citi analysts do not rule out the possibility of still-severe adverse developments even if they may be improbable. US trade negotiations with China are complicated further by political events in Hong Kong and the US response.
  • However, with investor bullishness rising, Citi analysts maintain a small allocation to gold as an added risk hedge to complement holdings of long-term high quality bonds.

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