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Currencies: Weekly house views and strategy - June 28, 2021
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Important information
In any instance where distribution of this communication (“Communication”) is subject to the rules of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”), this communication constitutes an invitation to consider entering
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Unless otherwise expressly indicated, this Communication does not take into account the investment objectives, risk profile or financial situation of any particular person and as such, investments mentioned in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Citi is not acting as an investment or other advisor, fiduciary or agent. The information contained herein is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice.
Recipients of this Communication should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances from their own tax, financial, legal and other advisors about the risks and merits of any transaction before making an investment decision, and only make such decisions on the basis of their own objectives, experience, risk profile and resources.
The information contained in this Communication is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be assured, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. Any assumptions or information contained in this Communication constitute a judgment only as of the date of this document or on any specified dates and is subject to change without notice. Insofar as this Communication may contain historical and forward looking information, past performance is neither a guarantee nor an indication of future results, and future results may not meet expectations due to a variety of economic, market and other factors.
Further, any projections of potential risk or return are illustrative and should not be taken as limitations of the maximum possible loss or gain. Any prices, values or estimates provided in this Communication (other than those that are identified
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at which Citi is prepared to do a trade and may not account for all relevant assumptions and future conditions. Actual conditions may vary substantially from estimates which could have a negative impact on the value of an instrument.
Views, opinions and estimates expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other Citi businesses or affiliates, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, or investment advice, and are subject to change without notice based on market and other conditions. Citi is under no duty to update this document and accepts no liability for any loss (whether direct, indirect or consequential) that may arise from any use of the information contained in or derived from this Communication.
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The expressions of opinion are not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Real results may vary.
Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Citigroup Inc. and its affiliates do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. Throughout this publication where charts indicate that a third party (parties) is the source, please note that the attributed may refer to the raw data received from such parties. No part of this document may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means, or distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director, or authorized agent of the recipient without Citigroup Inc.’s prior written consent.
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RISKS
Investments in financial instruments or other products carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Financial instruments or other products denominated in a foreign currency are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which may have an adverse effect on the price or value of an investment in such products. This Communication does not purport to identify all risks or material considerations which may be associated with entering into any transaction.
Structured products can be highly illiquid and are not suitable for all investors. Additional information can be found in the disclosure documents of the issuer for each respective structured product described herein. Investing in structured products is intended only for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks of such an investment. Investors should carefully review and consider potential risks before investing.
OTC derivative transactions involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investment products are not insured, carry no bank or government guarantee and may lose value. Before entering into these transactions, you should: (i) ensure that you have obtained and considered relevant information from independent reliable sources concerning the financial, economic and political conditions of the relevant markets; (ii) determine that you have the necessary knowledge, sophistication and experience in financial, business and investment matters to be able to evaluate the risks involved, and that you are financially able to bear such risks; and (iii) determine, having considered the foregoing points, that capital markets transactions are suitable and appropriate for your financial, tax, business and investment objectives.
This material may mention options regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Before buying or selling options you should obtain and review the current version of the Options Clearing Corporation booklet, Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. A copy of the booklet can be obtained upon request from Citigroup Global Markets Inc., 390 Greenwich Street, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10013.
If you buy options, the maximum loss is the premium. If you sell put options, the risk is the entire notional below the strike. If you sell call options, the risk is unlimited. The actual profit or loss from any trade will depend on the price at which the trades are executed. The prices used herein are historical and may not be available when you order is entered. Commissions and other transaction costs are not considered in these examples. Option trades in general and these trades in particular may not be appropriate for every investor. Unless noted otherwise, the source of all graphs and tables in this report is Citi. Because of the importance of tax considerations to all option transactions, the investor considering options should consult with his/her tax advisor as to how their tax situation is affected by the outcome of contemplated options transactions.
Bonds are affected by a number of risks, including fluctuations in interest rates, credit risk and prepayment risk. In general, as prevailing interest rates rise, fixed income securities prices will fall. Bonds face credit risk if a decline in an issuer’s credit rating, or creditworthiness, causes a bond’s price to decline. High yield bonds are subject to additional risks such as increased risk of default and greater volatility because of the lower credit quality of the issues. Finally, bonds can be subject
to prepayment risk. When interest rates fall, an issuer may choose to borrow money at a lower interest rate, while paying off its previously issued bonds. As a consequence, underlying bonds will lose the interest payments from the investment and will be forced to reinvest in a market where prevailing interest rates are lower than when the initial investment was made.
(MLP’s) - Energy Related MLPs May Exhibit High Volatility. While not historically very volatile, in certain market environments Energy Related MLPS may exhibit high volatility.
Changes in Regulatory or Tax Treatment of Energy Related MLPs. If the IRS changes the current tax treatment of the master limited partnerships included in the Basket of Energy Related MLPs thereby subjecting them to higher rates of taxation, or if other regulatory authorities enact regulations which negatively affect the ability of the master limited partnerships to generate income or distribute dividends to holders of common units, the return on the Notes, if any, could be dramatically reduced. Investment in a basket of Energy Related MLPs may expose the investor to concentration risk due to industry, geographical, political, and regulatory concentration.
Mortgage-backed securities ("MBS"), which include collateralized mortgage obligations ("CMOs"), also referred to as real estate mortgage investment conduits ("REMICs"), may not be suitable for all investors. There is the possibility of early return of principal due to mortgage prepayments, which can reduce expected yield and result in reinvestment risk. Conversely, return of principal may be slower than initial prepayment speed assumptions, extending the average life of the security up to its listed maturity date (also referred to as extension risk).
Additionally, the underlying collateral supporting non-Agency MBS may default on principal and interest payments. In certain cases, this could cause the income stream of the security to decline and result
in loss of principal. Further, an insufficient level of credit support may result in a downgrade of a mortgage bond's credit rating and lead to a higher probability of principal loss and increased price volatility. Investments in subordinated MBS involve greater credit risk of default than the senior classes of the same issue. Default risk may be pronounced in cases where the MBS security is secured by, or evidencing an interest in, a relatively small or less diverse pool of underlying mortgage loans.
MBS are also sensitive to interest rate changes which can negatively impact the market value of the security. During times of heightened volatility, MBS can experience greater levels of illiquidity and larger price movements. Price volatility may also occur from other factors including, but not limited to, prepayments, future prepayment expectations, credit concerns, underlying collateral performance and technical changes in the market.
Alternative investments referenced in this report are speculative and entail significant risks that can include losses due to leveraging or other speculative investment practices, lack of liquidity, volatility of returns, restrictions on transferring interests in the fund, potential lack of diversification, absence of information regarding valuations and pricing, complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting, less regulation and higher fees than mutual funds and advisor risk.
Asset allocation does not assure a profit or protect against a loss in declining financial markets.
The indexes are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
International investing entails greater risk, as well as greater potential rewards compared to US investing. These risks include political and economic uncertainties of foreign countries as well as the risk of currency fluctuations. These risks are magnified in countries with emerging markets, since these countries may have relatively unstable governments and less established markets and economics.
Investing in smaller companies involves greater risks not associated with investing in more established companies, such as business risk, significant stock price fluctuations and illiquidity.
Factors affecting commodities generally, index components composed of futures contracts on nickel or copper, which are industrial metals, may be subject to a number of additional factors specific to industrial metals that might cause price volatility. These include changes in the level of industrial activity using industrial metals (including the availability of substitutes such as manmade or synthetic substitutes); disruptions in the supply chain, from mining to storage to smelting
or refining; adjustments to inventory; variations in production costs, including storage, labor and energy costs; costs associated with regulatory compliance, including environmental regulations; and changes in industrial, government and consumer demand, both in individual consuming nations and internationally. Index components concentrated in futures contracts on agricultural products, including grains, may be subject to a number of additional factors specific to agricultural products that might cause price volatility. These include weather conditions, including floods, drought and freezing conditions; changes in government policies; planting decisions; and changes in demand for agricultural products, both with end users and
as inputs into various industries.
The information contained herein is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Readers interested in the strategies or concepts should consult their tax, legal, or other advisors, as appropriate.
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Different asset classes present different risks.
COUNTRY DISCLOSURES
Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong / Singapore organized under the laws of U.S.A. with limited liability. This communication is distributed in Hong Kong by Citi Private Bank operating through Citibank N.A., Hong Kong Branch, which is registered in Hong Kong with the Securities and Futures Commission for Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities), Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) and Type 9 (asset management) regulated activities with CE No: (AAP937) or in Singapore by Citi Private Bank operating through Citibank, N.A., Singapore Branch which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Any questions in connection with the contents in this communication should be directed to registered or licensed representatives of the relevant aforementioned entity. The contents of this communication have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong or any regulatory authority in Singapore. This communication contains confidential and proprietary information and is intended only for recipient in accordance with accredited investors requirements in Singapore (as defined under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289 of Singapore) (the “Act”) and professional investors requirements in Hong Kong(as defined under the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Ordinance and its subsidiary legislation). For regulated asset management services, any mandate will be entered into only with Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch and/or Citibank, N.A. Singapore Branch, as applicable.
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This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities to any person in any jurisdiction. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially.
This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities to any person in any jurisdiction. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially.
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(c) Governments, supranational organisations, central banks or other national monetary authorities, and state organisations whose main activity is to invest in financial instruments (such as state pension funds).
GLOBAL CONSUMER BANK (ASIA PACIFIC AND EMEA):
“Citi analysts” refer to investment professionals within Citi Research (“CR”), Citi Global Markets Inc. (“CGMI”), Citi Global Wealth Investments (“CGWI”) and voting members of the Citi Global Investment Committee.
Citibank N.A. and its affiliates / subsidiaries provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this document.
The information in this document has been obtained from reports issued by CGMI and CGWI. Such information is based on sources CGMI and CGWI believe to be reliable. CGMI and CGWI, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and it may
be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute CGMI and CGWI's judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. This document is for general information purposes only and is not intended
as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or currency. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the written consent of Citibank N.A. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the appropriateness of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of a particular investment. Investments are not deposits, are not obligations of, or guaranteed or insured by Citibank N.A., Citigroup Inc., or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries, or by any local government or insurance agency, and are subject to investment risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Investors investing in funds denominated in non-local currency should be aware
of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause a loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, prices can go up or down. Investment products are not available to US persons. Investors should be aware
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MARKET SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES
Market Specific Disclosures
Hong Kong: This communication is distributed in Hong Kong by Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited ("CHKL") and/or Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch (“CBNA HK”, Citibank, N.A. is organized under the laws of U.S.A. with limited liability). CHKL and CBNA HK provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this communication. Although information in this communication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CHKL and CBNA HK do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.
This communication is for general information only, is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any products or services and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein
has not taken account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the suitability of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs,
and should seek independent advice before making an investment decision. You should obtain and consider the relevant product terms and conditions and risk disclosure statement, and consider if it’s suitable for your objectives, financial situation or needs before making any investment decision. Investors are advised to obtain independent legal, financial and taxation advice prior to investing. Investments are not deposits, are not protected by the Deposit Protection Scheme in Hong Kong
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This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information in any jurisdiction in which it is unlawful to distribute such information to any person in such jurisdiction.
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This communication is for general information only and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has no regard to the specific objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person and is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Any person interested in the strategies or concepts mentioned herein should consult their independent tax, legal, financial or other advisors,
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