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Citi

Domestic Resilience may Buoy Growth

 

Key Takeaways

  • Projections for global growth have drifted down in 2019 as a reflection of trade headwinds, though domestic resilience is showing more positive signs. Developed Market (DM) economies could slow to below-trend growth of the last 20 years, while in contrast, Emerging Market (EM) economies could see a moderate rebound.
  • Citi analysts expect global growth of 2.7% in 2020 and 2021, compared with 2.6% in 2019. Inflation is targeted at 2.7% in 2020 and 2.4% in 2021, from 2.5% in 2019.
  • DMs target 1.5% growth in 2020 and 2021, while EMs are anticipated to grow 4.2% in 2020 and 4.3% in 2021, reflecting the divergence between the 2 regions.

 

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