Asia-Pacific

Estimating the Impact of the Chinese Policy Stimulus

_{Posted on Apr 1, 2019}

Chinese growth slowed down but there are some stabilization signs: Citi’s tracker for Chinese broad activity shows that the deceleration in Chinese growth has not been as strong or as fast as in the 2015-16 episode.

Policy stimulus has been pledged to support the economy: Citi’s tracker suggests that a much smaller policy stimulus would be required than in the 2015-16 episode. In addition, Citi analysts believe that there is an unwillingness by the government to return to a previous era of substantial stimulus. Citi analysts estimate that the current policy stimulus could boost Chinese GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points (pp), all else equal.

Chinese stimulus matters for the global economy and monetary policy prospects: As the contribution of China to global growth has increased over the last few years, the effectiveness and timing of the Chinese policy stimulus has become key for the global economy. Citi’s estimates suggest that a 1pp increase in Chinese GDP growth could boost global growth between 0.1-0.4pp over four quarters.

If the policy stimulus proves to be ineffective, it could lead to additional easing by major DM central banks as the recent dovish shift in their tone has been due to concerns over slower global growth.

_{By Citi Global Wealth Investments | Mar 18, 2024}

Weekly FX Focus - DXY: Attention On The BoJ, Fed And SNB This Week

Markets see a busy week with 10 central bank meetings this week. Our Head of FX Strategy brings our focus to 3 central bank meetings that markets highly anticipate.

_{By Citi Global Wealth Investments | Mar 14, 2024}

Weekly FX Focus - JPY: Spotlight Shifts to Yen Ahead of BoJ Meeting

After decades of poor economic performance, Japan now sees wage growth, inflation, and avoided a technical recession. Are we finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for Japan? This week, our Global Head of FX Strategy analyzes the situation for the Yen and compare the differences in central bank policy between Japan and the US.

FX Economy Asia-Pacific

_{By Citi Global Wealth Investments | Mar 7, 2024}

Weekly FX Focus - NZDCHF: NZ Rates Higher For Longer, SNB Poised to Cut

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand made an unexpected decision to keep rates unchanged last week. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank is expected to cut rates. This week, we examine the circumstances of both economies and discover how NZD could benefit.

FX Economy Asia-Pacific

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MARKET SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES

Market Specific Disclosures

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This communication is for general information only and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has no regard to the specific objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person and is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Any person interested in the strategies or concepts mentioned herein should consult their independent tax, legal, financial or other advisors,
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This is not an official statement of Citigroup Inc. and may not reflect all of your investments with or made through Citibank. For an accurate record of your accounts and transactions, please consult your official statement. Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives.
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