Economy/Politics

Global Economic Growth Showing Signs of Moderation

_{Posted on Jan 7, 2019}

Among 38 manufacturing PMIs, 24 were still in expansion, while the average has fallen from 52.3 to 51.7, which is still consistent with moderate global economic growth that Citi analysts expect for 2019, even though equity markets have already discounted worse.

The pace of moderation was led by a large decline in US ISM PMI, falling from a lofty 59.3 in November to a still expansionary 54.1 in December. The drop in new orders was more pronounced from 62.1 to 51.1. These numbers are actually more consistent with the real GDP growth of 3% in 2018.

The data also reflects the temporary nature of tax cut stimulus. ISM PMI only rose to the 58-62 range (Feb-Nov 2018) after tax cuts were passed. Now, those effects are gone and expectations have returned to earth. The ISM data overshadowed the stronger than expected ADP data that showed 271K gains in private employment.

Elsewhere, the slowdown is also evident. Eurozone PMI held steady, with France contracting amid protests, while Germany edged slower slightly and Italy gaining. UK and Japan also managed to gain, while oil producing nations felt the bite from oil prices declines.

In Asia ex-Japan, six of eleven markets remains above 50, while China, Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia and HK are in contraction. The largest declines came from Vietnam, Malaysia and Philippines, while Indonesia and Thailand saw pickups and Korea narrowed its contraction.

_{By Citi Wealth Insights | Jan 25, 2023}

Weekly Market Analysis: The Fed Isn’t Satisfied and the Market Isn’t Listening

The recent rally in financial markets will only compel the Fed to step up its rhetoric and make it more likely to hold peak rates.

_{By Citi Wealth Insights | Jan 19, 2023}

China: Further Gains Ahead

After a sharp 50% rally in the MSCI China index since end-October, some observers wonder if the bull market is already over, but we believe Chinese equities will make a much fuller recovery.

FX Economy/Politics Asia Pac / EM

_{By Citi Wealth Insights | Jan 17, 2023}

Weekly Market Analysis: China's Reopening Rally, Part 2

China’s unexpected COVID policy reversal and its economic reopening have surprised many global investors. CIO believes substantial appreciation potential remains for Chinese shares as revenue growth and earnings are likely to exceed modest expectations.

Wealth Insights Weekly Market Analysis Economy/Politics Equities

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This communication is for general information only and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has no regard to the specific objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person and is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Any person interested in the strategies or concepts mentioned herein should consult their independent tax, legal, financial or other advisors,
as appropriate. This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom
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Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making
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CSL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

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Citibank N.A. UAE is registered with Central Bank of UAE under license numbers BSD/504/83 for Al Wasl Branch Dubai, 13/184/2019 for Mall of the Emirates Branch Dubai, BSD/2819/9 for Sharjah Branch, and BSD/692/83 for Abu Dhabi Branch.

This is not an official statement of Citigroup Inc. and may not reflect all of your investments with or made through Citibank. For an accurate record of your accounts and transactions, please consult your official statement. Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives.
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United Kingdom: This document is distributed in the U.K. by Citibank UK Limited and in Jersey by Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch.

Citibank UK Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Our firm’s Financial Services Register number is 805574. Citibank UK Limited
is a company limited by shares registered in England and Wales with registered address at Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB, Companies House Registration No. 11283101.

Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Citi International Personal Bank is registered in Jersey as a business name of Citibank N.A. The address of Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is P.O. Box 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8QB. Citibank N.A. is incorporated with limited liability in the USA. Head office: 399 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10043, USA.

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