Economy | Asset Allocation

Looking Past the Political Noise

_{Posted on Sep 30, 2019}

Citi analysts believe the mild negative response to recent events – Trump impeachment inquiry and UK’s supreme court declaring parliament suspension as unlawful – is revealing of how markets have braced for bad news.

US Democrats launched a formal impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump last Wednesday, suggesting “he has violated his oath of office and obligations under the Constitution”. The S&P 500 index which closed -0.84% on Tuesday ahead of the announcement subsequently pushed higher on Wednesday, gaining 0.62%.

Focus in Europe meanwhile was on the UK parliament after the Supreme Court declared PM Johnson’s parliament suspension as “unlawful” last Tuesday. The FTSE 100 index lost 0.47% on that day itself and was almost flat at -0.02% on Wednesday.

Global equity markets also reacted calmly to the largest one day gain in the price of crude oil in a decade. The MSCI World index declined 0.26% on 16 September but subsequently rose 0.13% the next day.

The calm response in markets in part signals investor pessimism, measured by significant equity fund outflows this year.

While US talks with China and Brexit deadline in October are yet further opportunities for uncertainties to rise, looking back to the variety of threats - including a potential widening of the trade war to Mexico and Europe - the trade risks did not unravel fully as feared.

As such, Citi analysts believe that given the drop in bond yields and thus reduced fixed income opportunity, a tactical underweight in equities seemed too cautious and have raised its allocation to neutral.

_{By Citi Wealth Insights | Apr 16, 2024}

Weekly Market Analysis - Geopolitical Shocks, Inflation and the Patient Portfolio

Iran’s direct attacks on Israel via missiles and drones is a material escalation of an intensifying regional conflict. For markets, the event was well-anticipated and the initial reports of casualties from the bombardment were few.

_{By Citi Wealth Insights | Apr 15, 2024}

DXY in a 104 – 107 range may temporarily break through the upper end of the range on sharply rising geopolitical tensions

USD: In data released Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dips to 77.9 from 79.4, below consensus for 79.0. Sentiment jumped sharply across the turn of the year but has made no further net progress, despite the stock market hitting new highs.

FX Economy

_{By Citi Global Wealth Investments | Apr 12, 2024}

Q2 2024 | At a glance

This is an unusually positive time for markets. Inflation is slowing while corporate profits are rebounding. Global equity markets, as reflected by the MSCI World Index, are up around 10% year-to-date. Earnings have remained resilient in the face of policy action and we believe there is a broadening of equity performance, and it is spreading beyond US shores.

Annual & Mid-year Outlook Economy Asset Allocation Equities Fixed Income

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the provisions of the Deposit Insurance and Policy Owners’ Protection Schemes Act of Singapore and are not eligible for deposit insurance coverage under the Deposit Insurance Scheme.

This communication is for general information only and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has no regard to the specific objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person and is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Any person interested in the strategies or concepts mentioned herein should consult their independent tax, legal, financial or other advisors,
as appropriate. This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom
it is unlawful to distribute such information or make any offer or solicitation.

Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making
an investment decision. Interested investors should seek the advice of their financial adviser about the issues discussed herein as appropriate. Should investors choose not to seek such advice, they should carefully consider the risks associated
with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives and assess whether the investment product is suitable for
themselves. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CSL does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from Its use.

CSL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

UAE: This document is distributed in UAE by Citibank, N.A. UAE. Citibank N.A. UAE is licensed by UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (“SCA”) to undertake the financial activity as Promoter under license number 602003.

Citibank N.A. UAE is registered with Central Bank of UAE under license numbers BSD/504/83 for Al Wasl Branch Dubai, 13/184/2019 for Mall of the Emirates Branch Dubai, BSD/2819/9 for Sharjah Branch, and BSD/692/83 for Abu Dhabi Branch.

This is not an official statement of Citigroup Inc. and may not reflect all of your investments with or made through Citibank. For an accurate record of your accounts and transactions, please consult your official statement. Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives.
At any time, Citigroup companies may compensate affiliates and their representatives for providing products and services to clients.

United Kingdom: This document is distributed in the U.K. by Citibank UK Limited and in Jersey by Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch.

Citibank UK Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Our firm’s Financial Services Register number is 805574. Citibank UK Limited
is a company limited by shares registered in England and Wales with registered address at Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB, Companies House Registration No. 11283101.

Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Citi International Personal Bank is registered in Jersey as a business name of Citibank N.A. The address of Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is P.O. Box 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8QB. Citibank N.A. is incorporated with limited liability in the USA. Head office: 399 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10043, USA.

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