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Citi Wealth Insights

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2nd wave, US – China tensions in focus; EU working to protect integrity of euro zone project; Brexit talks stall, BoE re-affirms importance of fiscal space

Safe Havens (JPY, Gold, CHF): 2nd wave Covid-19 infections and US – China tensions on the radar - South Korea gains attention Friday as it reports 27 new coronavirus cases in 24 hours including cases linked to clubs that potentially exposes 6,000 to 7,000 people to the virus.
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Trump ups the ante on China; EU parliament ups the ante on the Recovery Fund; BoE Governor moves to quash talk of negative rates

USD: President Trump likes a strong dollar – says overnight -“It’s a great time to have a strong dollar because the whole world -- you know, we’re paying zero interest, right. That’s never happened either. We’re paying so low. Everybody wants to be in the dollar because we kept it strong. I kept it strong”.
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US House outlines 3trn phase 4 – but USD unimpressed; RBNZ - negative rates an option but outright debt monetization is not

USD: Prepared comments from Fed Chair Powell overnight keeps the tone of the recent statement and press conference in the spirit of "whatever is needed," with markets focused on two points –
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A respite for EUR as the pro-European establishment comes to the defense of the ECB and European Court of Justice

EUR: Following the recent German Court ruling that asks the ECB to establish that its asset purchase program is a proportionate response to the Covid – 19 led downturn, the pro-European establishment comes out in force to defend the ECB and European Court of Justice (ECJ) that had earlier ruled on the ECB mandate.
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USD gains as Fed speak pushes back on negative rates and amid the war of words between US & China

USD: Enjoys a broader bid overnight, alongside somewhat higher yields and choppy equity markets as US rates reflect some fading of the negative rates story (though markets are still pricing negative in 2021). This comes as Fed speak from Evans and Bostic attempts to pushback on negative rates with the former seemingly taking a more bullish stance on prospects for a US H2’2020 growth rebound.
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Asia: Ten Themes for the New Decade

Citi analysts outline what could be important longer term trends in Asia.
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