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Citi Wealth Insights

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Safe Havens continue to outperform as markets remain on edge; Mixed US data to still see the Fed cutting rates at the September meeting

Market jitters spike overnight as China’s Ministry of Finance notes that President Trump’s latest tariffs “seriously violate the consensus between the heads of state of the two countries and the consensus of the Osaka meeting and the deviation from the Osaka meeting.
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US rates pricing becoming more aggressive but the US 2 versus 10Yr yield curve inversion suggests may not be enough to avert US recession

US bond market flashes “red” - Record lows in the UST 30Yr yield of 2.0139% overnight, along with the UST 2Yr versus 10Yr cash curve’s first inversion since 2007 – a sign of a possible on coming US (and perhaps even a global) recession, drives a global risk rout Wednesday.
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Safe haven demand remains as geopolitical risks escalate; US core CPI rebounds from transitory weakness as does small business optimism

Tariff delays likely to keep trade war for longer - China’s Vice Premier Lui tells markets that during a call with US’s Lighthizer, officials have decided to hold discussions again within the next two weeks by phone.
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Safe Havens: Demand continues as geopolitical risks pile on; US CPI Preview - Solid core CPI unlikely to change Fed easing

Further addition to the list of geopolitical tensions already in play -
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Safe haven demand to remain elevated; Japan fundamentals favor Yen strength; USD vulnerable to Trump tweets and Fed easing

The best performing currencies over the past week with outperformance set to continue amid higher risk aversion.
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Safe havens (JPY, CHF & Gold) remain in demand even as sentiment recovers late in the US session; Fed’s Evans sees more rate cuts

Another rout in risk sentiment overnight before a late recovery
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