Commodities

Pandemic Recovery Fostering Longest Commodities Boom

_{Posted on Aug 3, 2021}

Crude Oil: This summer may continue to see strong stock draws, most visible in the US, but also in observable inventories worldwide, as seasonal and pent-up demand outperforms, while OPEC+ maintains a gradual return of oil to market, even as Iran sanctions relief remains slower to come. US supply is moving back to growth mode, but can remain lower, until more clearly moving higher before end-2021. Downside risks remain from COVID-19 variants and a faster return of supply from OPEC+ or Iran, but this is not expected to slow down inventory draws much. Brent and WTI could hit US$85 in 2H’21.

Gold: Citi analysts are neutral gold in the near term and expect prices to trade at the higher end of a US$1,675-1,825/oz baseline range in July before gradually trending lower into September and also by year-end, to average US$1,750/oz in 3Q and US$1,675/oz in 4Q. Citi analysts are bearish, albeit with lower than normal conviction, for 2022.

Bulks and metals: Citi analysts see copper retracing its 2021 peak during the 2H’21, reaching US$11,000/t, on an end to destocking across the supply chain as well as higher demand from the automotive sector as the chip shortage eases. The preference shift towards metals-intensive activity in North America (and likely Europe) shows no signs of rolling over, given the NAHB home remodeling index rising q/q to reach all-time highs in 2Q’21, despite the US service sector reopening last February.

Citi analysts are short term bullish nickel and forecast prices to reach US$20.5k/t in the next 0-3 months. Multiple indicators are signaling that physical tightness is brewing in the nickel market. At the root is surging demand from stainless steel which looks set to get seasonally stronger in 3Q’21, and the EV industry is restocking too. Citi analysts expect this may drive nickel prices up amidst our broader bullish commodities view for 3Q’21. However, Citi analysts remain directionally bearish on a 2022 view owing to strong supply growth.

_{By Citi Wealth Insights | Jun 20, 2022}

Commodity markets in spotlight as geopolitical conflict rolls on

Oil prices should soften by year-end. Even as Russian oil output falls, with EU banning waterborne imports of Russian oil by year-end, a global GDP slowdown, high prices, and China’s zero-COVID policy are all hitting demand

Commodities

_{By Citi Wealth Insights | May 4, 2022}

Commodity markets in spotlight as geopolitical conflict rolls on

The geopolitical situation remains fluid and an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict may buttress risk-on investor flows. Even as Russian production slides, a global GDP slowdown is hitting oil demand, relief for sanctions on Iran could be on the way, and non-OPEC+ supply is growing fast while Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases could now total 300-m bbls this year.

Wealth Insights Commodities

_{By Citi Wealth Insights | Apr 5, 2022}

How long will geopolitics upend commodity markets

Given today’s unique conditions, the GIC has further enhanced its asset allocation with the addition of tactical exposures to natural resources, oil services firms and gold that aims to add diversification and serve as a possible hedge against tail risks.

Wealth Insights Asset Allocation Commodities

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and are subject to investment risk including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.

This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information in any jurisdiction in which it is unlawful to distribute such information to any person in such jurisdiction.

CHKL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

Singapore: This communication is distributed in Singapore by Citibank Singapore Limited (“CSL”) to selected Citigold/Citigold Private Clients. CSL provides no independent research or analysis of the substance or in preparation of this communication. Please contact your Citigold/Citigold Private Client Relationship Manager in CSL if you have any queries on or any matters arising from or in connection with this communication. Investment products are not insured under
the provisions of the Deposit Insurance and Policy Owners’ Protection Schemes Act of Singapore and are not eligible for deposit insurance coverage under the Deposit Insurance Scheme.

This communication is for general information only and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has no regard to the specific objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person and is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Any person interested in the strategies or concepts mentioned herein should consult their independent tax, legal, financial or other advisors,
as appropriate. This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom
it is unlawful to distribute such information or make any offer or solicitation.

Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making
an investment decision. Interested investors should seek the advice of their financial adviser about the issues discussed herein as appropriate. Should investors choose not to seek such advice, they should carefully consider the risks associated
with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives and assess whether the investment product is suitable for
themselves. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CSL does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from Its use.

CSL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

UAE: This document is distributed in UAE by Citibank, N.A. UAE. Citibank N.A. UAE is licensed by UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (“SCA”) to undertake the financial activity as Promoter under license number 602003.

Citibank N.A. UAE is registered with Central Bank of UAE under license numbers BSD/504/83 for Al Wasl Branch Dubai, 13/184/2019 for Mall of the Emirates Branch Dubai, BSD/2819/9 for Sharjah Branch, and BSD/692/83 for Abu Dhabi Branch.

This is not an official statement of Citigroup Inc. and may not reflect all of your investments with or made through Citibank. For an accurate record of your accounts and transactions, please consult your official statement. Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives.
At any time, Citigroup companies may compensate affiliates and their representatives for providing products and services to clients.

United Kingdom: This document is distributed in the U.K. by Citibank UK Limited and in Jersey by Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch.

Citibank UK Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Our firm’s Financial Services Register number is 805574. Citibank UK Limited
is a company limited by shares registered in England and Wales with registered address at Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB, Companies House Registration No. 11283101.

Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Citi International Personal Bank is registered in Jersey as a business name of Citibank N.A. The address of Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is P.O. Box 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8QB. Citibank N.A. is incorporated with limited liability in the USA. Head office: 399 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10043, USA.

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