Economy

Recession Risks have Diminished

_{Posted on Apr 22, 2019}

While global equity markets have come nearly full circle from a significant correction, Citi analysts have the view that the risk of a recessionary environment has diminished. This is evidenced by the renewed fiscal and monetary policy activity and the latest data coming out from China, US and Germany.

China’s economy enjoys good start and may sustain momentum: China’s real GDP growth has seen a strong start to the year at 6.4%YoY in 1Q, beating market expectations (6.3%). The gains have been across the board with household income growing faster than GDP that has seen real disposable income rising 6.8%YoY in 1Q and arresting the earlier decline in domestic demand.

US likely to see slower GDP growth of 2.5% in 2019 but this is still well in positive territory: US data also appears to be stabilizing after a weak start in 1Q19. The latest payrolls data for March shows the underlying strength of the US labor market with the economy having added 196K jobs, bouncing back from just 33K in February while the unemployment rate remained at a record low 3.8%. Wages growth advanced a subdued 0.145% MoM, taking the year-on-year reading to 3.2%, below the median for 3.4% and dampening concerns about wage inflation.

Europe still the laggard but German investors may be turning optimistic for the first time this year: The latest German ZEW survey’s headline ‘Current Situation’ index for April came in lower than expected at 5.5 vs 8.5 consensus (11.1 previous) but the more important forward-looking "Expectations" print, which the market monitors more closely, was better than expected at 3.1 vs 0.5 consensus (-3.6 previous) for Germany and 4.5 for Eurozone (-2.5 previous), indicating that the financial participants in the survey may be turning optimistic for the first time this year.

While volatility has risen compared to earlier in the present expansion cycle, Citi’s base case view anticipates mid-to-high single digit gains for broad equities over the coming year and perhaps beyond.

_{By Citi Global Wealth Investments | Apr 18, 2024}

Weekly FX Focus - GBPAUD – Scales Are In Favor Of The More Resilient Economy

Markets currently price in pricing discounts for the UK with the first cut expected at the Bank of England's August 1st meeting. Meanwhile, markets price in a rate cut being likely in November and possibly pushed into 2025, coupled with declining iron ore prices, are rate differentials in favor of AUD?

FX Economy

_{By Citi Wealth Insights | Apr 16, 2024}

Weekly Market Analysis - Geopolitical Shocks, Inflation and the Patient Portfolio

Iran’s direct attacks on Israel via missiles and drones is a material escalation of an intensifying regional conflict. For markets, the event was well-anticipated and the initial reports of casualties from the bombardment were few.

Wealth Insights Weekly Market Analysis Economy Asset Allocation

_{By Citi Wealth Insights | Apr 15, 2024}

DXY in a 104 – 107 range may temporarily break through the upper end of the range on sharply rising geopolitical tensions

USD: In data released Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dips to 77.9 from 79.4, below consensus for 79.0. Sentiment jumped sharply across the turn of the year but has made no further net progress, despite the stock market hitting new highs.

FX Economy

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Market Specific Disclosures

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and should seek independent advice before making an investment decision. You should obtain and consider the relevant product terms and conditions and risk disclosure statement, and consider if it’s suitable for your objectives, financial situation or needs before making any investment decision. Investors are advised to obtain independent legal, financial and taxation advice prior to investing. Investments are not deposits, are not protected by the Deposit Protection Scheme in Hong Kong
and are subject to investment risk including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.

This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information in any jurisdiction in which it is unlawful to distribute such information to any person in such jurisdiction.

CHKL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

Singapore: This communication is distributed in Singapore by Citibank Singapore Limited (“CSL”) to selected Citigold/Citigold Private Clients. CSL provides no independent research or analysis of the substance or in preparation of this communication. Please contact your Citigold/Citigold Private Client Relationship Manager in CSL if you have any queries on or any matters arising from or in connection with this communication. Investment products are not insured under
the provisions of the Deposit Insurance and Policy Owners’ Protection Schemes Act of Singapore and are not eligible for deposit insurance coverage under the Deposit Insurance Scheme.

This communication is for general information only and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has no regard to the specific objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person and is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Any person interested in the strategies or concepts mentioned herein should consult their independent tax, legal, financial or other advisors,
as appropriate. This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom
it is unlawful to distribute such information or make any offer or solicitation.

Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making
an investment decision. Interested investors should seek the advice of their financial adviser about the issues discussed herein as appropriate. Should investors choose not to seek such advice, they should carefully consider the risks associated
with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives and assess whether the investment product is suitable for
themselves. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CSL does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from Its use.

CSL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

UAE: This document is distributed in UAE by Citibank, N.A. UAE. Citibank N.A. UAE is licensed by UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (“SCA”) to undertake the financial activity as Promoter under license number 602003.

Citibank N.A. UAE is registered with Central Bank of UAE under license numbers BSD/504/83 for Al Wasl Branch Dubai, 13/184/2019 for Mall of the Emirates Branch Dubai, BSD/2819/9 for Sharjah Branch, and BSD/692/83 for Abu Dhabi Branch.

This is not an official statement of Citigroup Inc. and may not reflect all of your investments with or made through Citibank. For an accurate record of your accounts and transactions, please consult your official statement. Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives.
At any time, Citigroup companies may compensate affiliates and their representatives for providing products and services to clients.

United Kingdom: This document is distributed in the U.K. by Citibank UK Limited and in Jersey by Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch.

Citibank UK Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Our firm’s Financial Services Register number is 805574. Citibank UK Limited
is a company limited by shares registered in England and Wales with registered address at Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB, Companies House Registration No. 11283101.

Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Citi International Personal Bank is registered in Jersey as a business name of Citibank N.A. The address of Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is P.O. Box 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8QB. Citibank N.A. is incorporated with limited liability in the USA. Head office: 399 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10043, USA.

DISCLAIMER [+]

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