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Citi

Uncertainties in the Recovery

Key Takeaways

  • Global GDP may contract by 3.5% in 2020 before growing 5.5% in 2021. Inflation is expected to remain subdued at 1.8% for 2020, rising to 2.4% in 2021.
  • Developed Markets (DMs) GDP growth may fall to -5.0% in 2020, rebounding to 4.8% in 2021. Emerging Markets (EMs) may see a smaller contraction to -1.5% in 2020, improving to 6.4% in 2021.
  • Should uncertainties materialize and affect investors’ confidence, a return to pre COVID-19 GDP growth may be delayed, yielding a longer recession and a more extended period of recovery. Deteriorating US/China relations and heightened political risks may also weigh on growth.
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