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Citi

Uncertainty could see Safe haven Currencies in Vogue

Key takeaways

  • The extension of the US-China trade dispute together with other unresolved geopolitical concerns – Brexit, a potentially more populist European parliament and US-EU/Japan trade tensions risk posing headwinds to the 2H19 outlook.
  • This is likely to support safe haven currencies such as JPY. In contrast, the commodity currencies are more susceptible to risk aversion though CAD remains most resilient.
  • In Asia, IDR, MYR, SGD, KRW and THB remain vulnerable in the short term to an escalation in US-China trade tensions and CNY depreciation.

 

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