FX

USD Overall Fundamental Backdrop Still Weak

_{Posted on Mar 29, 2018}

USD’s gains this week should be put in perspective

The USD Index’s (DXY) closed at 90.06 overnight still put it well below the March 2018 high of 90.93 and this year’s high of 92.64. A trade breakthrough announcement with Korea overnight perhaps helps to lower global trade tensions at the margin but a US February trade deficit of USD75.4bn, which marks the biggest deficit since July 2008, reminds investors of the very high stakes involved in these current US-China trade talks and difficulty of finding an amicable agreement for both sides.

GBP: Sterling gains on Irish border talk but risks for disappointment are high

GBPUSD hits a high of 1.4201 on the Irish headlines. However there is a risk for disappointment should the UK’s plans for the Irish border meet with disapproval from both sides of the border. This suggests that recent sterling outperformance may still be close to peaking.

Commodity Bloc: AUD underperformance may continue on crosses

AUDUSD hits a fresh year-to-date low overnight at 0.7654. Citi analysts believe that the fundamental outlook for AUD remains weak (especially on crosses).
More medium term, the bullish case for CAD versus its commodity peers (especially AUD) continues to build with last week’s firmer Canadian February CPI report supporting Citi’s call for the BoC to hike rates further, most likely still in July though the possibility of a May hike has risen.

Asia EM: USDCNY breaks through 6.3000 to test February lows

The somewhat cooling of US-China trade tensions on US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s weekend comments sees USDCNY reaching new lows at 6.2430, the lowest level since February. The move however, comes amidst a slowing in China’s manufacturing outlook. China PMIs will be released Friday March 30 and Citi analysts expect to see a softening of growth momentum as PMIs slow.
Against this backdrop, and amid a clarification of what the US wants from China on trade concessions (highlighted by press reports earlier this week), further gains in CNY will likely largely depend on PBoC’s patience.

This is an extract from the Daily Currency Update, dated 29th March 2018. Please approach a Citigold Relationship Manager if you would like more information.

_{By Citi Wealth Insights | Apr 22, 2024}

Japan’s nominal wage growth may set the BoJ to pursue a faster pace of tightening in H2’2024

JPY: Japan’s nationwide core CPI (excluding only fresh food) rises 2.6% YoY in March, down from a 2.8% YoY advance in February. The result is also slightly weaker than consensus expectations for a 2.7% YoY rise.

FX Economy

_{By Citi Global Wealth Investments | Apr 18, 2024}

Weekly FX Focus - GBPAUD – Scales Are In Favor Of The More Resilient Economy

Markets currently price in pricing discounts for the UK with the first cut expected at the Bank of England's August 1st meeting. Meanwhile, markets price in a rate cut being likely in November and possibly pushed into 2025, coupled with declining iron ore prices, are rate differentials in favor of AUD?

FX Economy

_{By Citi Wealth Insights | Apr 15, 2024}

DXY in a 104 – 107 range may temporarily break through the upper end of the range on sharply rising geopolitical tensions

USD: In data released Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dips to 77.9 from 79.4, below consensus for 79.0. Sentiment jumped sharply across the turn of the year but has made no further net progress, despite the stock market hitting new highs.

FX Economy

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and should seek independent advice before making an investment decision. You should obtain and consider the relevant product terms and conditions and risk disclosure statement, and consider if it’s suitable for your objectives, financial situation or needs before making any investment decision. Investors are advised to obtain independent legal, financial and taxation advice prior to investing. Investments are not deposits, are not protected by the Deposit Protection Scheme in Hong Kong
and are subject to investment risk including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.

This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information in any jurisdiction in which it is unlawful to distribute such information to any person in such jurisdiction.

CHKL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

Singapore: This communication is distributed in Singapore by Citibank Singapore Limited (“CSL”) to selected Citigold/Citigold Private Clients. CSL provides no independent research or analysis of the substance or in preparation of this communication. Please contact your Citigold/Citigold Private Client Relationship Manager in CSL if you have any queries on or any matters arising from or in connection with this communication. Investment products are not insured under
the provisions of the Deposit Insurance and Policy Owners’ Protection Schemes Act of Singapore and are not eligible for deposit insurance coverage under the Deposit Insurance Scheme.

This communication is for general information only and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has no regard to the specific objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person and is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Any person interested in the strategies or concepts mentioned herein should consult their independent tax, legal, financial or other advisors,
as appropriate. This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom
it is unlawful to distribute such information or make any offer or solicitation.

Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making
an investment decision. Interested investors should seek the advice of their financial adviser about the issues discussed herein as appropriate. Should investors choose not to seek such advice, they should carefully consider the risks associated
with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives and assess whether the investment product is suitable for
themselves. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CSL does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from Its use.

CSL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

UAE: This document is distributed in UAE by Citibank, N.A. UAE. Citibank N.A. UAE is licensed by UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (“SCA”) to undertake the financial activity as Promoter under license number 602003.

Citibank N.A. UAE is registered with Central Bank of UAE under license numbers BSD/504/83 for Al Wasl Branch Dubai, 13/184/2019 for Mall of the Emirates Branch Dubai, BSD/2819/9 for Sharjah Branch, and BSD/692/83 for Abu Dhabi Branch.

This is not an official statement of Citigroup Inc. and may not reflect all of your investments with or made through Citibank. For an accurate record of your accounts and transactions, please consult your official statement. Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives.
At any time, Citigroup companies may compensate affiliates and their representatives for providing products and services to clients.

United Kingdom: This document is distributed in the U.K. by Citibank UK Limited and in Jersey by Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch.

Citibank UK Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Our firm’s Financial Services Register number is 805574. Citibank UK Limited
is a company limited by shares registered in England and Wales with registered address at Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB, Companies House Registration No. 11283101.

Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Citi International Personal Bank is registered in Jersey as a business name of Citibank N.A. The address of Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is P.O. Box 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8QB. Citibank N.A. is incorporated with limited liability in the USA. Head office: 399 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10043, USA.

DISCLAIMER [+]

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