Winners & Losers from Biden’s Infrastructure Plan

In 2020-2021, emergency federal spending to battle COVID-19’s impact has been a cumulative 26% of US GDP under two administrations. While the face value of President Biden’s US$2 trillion plan is large, actual spending could be spread out and incremental spending could be just 1.3% of US GDP over the 8 years following its passage. Unlike the COVID-19 relief bills, the infrastructure plan raises revenues to pay for the spending rather than being deficit-financed. Aside from resetting the economy to late 2019’s pre COVID-19’s conditions, the Biden administration is arguing for a significantly expanded public role in boosting economic potential through its infrastructure plan. A second “social infrastructure” proposal could be announced soon.

Net stimulative for US growth despite tax hikes

US corporate taxes are proposed to be hiked from 21% to 28% as part of the revenue to pay for the new bill. Despite this, Citi analysts believe the infrastructure plan could still be net stimulative for US growth over several years. Bulk of the new spending is likely to flow to private sector firms and then benefit others, especially green-tech enablers, construction and engineering firms, but also healthcare providers and semiconductor manufacturers.

The revenue increases are likely to offset the impact of corporate tax hikes on the level of profits. Even the proposed 7% corporate tax hike is unlikely to result in a net profit decline in the US if imposed in the coming two years, given the strong economic growth outlook. While after-tax margins may sink for a year relative to pre-tax margins, overall profits could see a net gain.

Potential winners and losers

Negotiations could cause many changes to the bill before a final vote is taken, but much of the plan appears to complements several of Citi’s “Unstoppable Trends”. The plan targets electric vehicles, clean energy and climate technology, which could fast-forward efforts aimed at “New Energy”. Investments in broadcast and semi-conductors speak to the “Hyper-connectivity” trend. Funding to bolster job creation, innovation, education and manufacturing are consistent with preparing to compete with China in a “G2 World”. A pledge to care for aging and those with disabilities fits the “Longevity” trend. An unexpected beneficiary may be Financials, as interest rates rise and the yield curve steepens amid brisker economic growth and the absorption of trillions of dollars in spending initiatives.

Potential losers are companies that may not benefit much but still pay higher taxes. Utilities may see taxes increase and face more regulation. However, some may be able to pass on costs and benefits from investments in the power grid. Meanwhile, some technology firms could be impacted as profitable firms paying little-to-no US federal taxes could see their tax bill increase, with the minimum tax on foreign firms proposed to be raised to 21% (from 10.5%) and provisions tightened.