Your browser does not support JavaScript! Pls enable JavaScript and try again.

FX

Australia: Revision to forecasts - lower unemployment, higher wages & growth

Posted on

Australia: Revision to forecasts - lower unemployment, higher wages & growth

  • AUD: Citi analysts upgrade their forecasts for Australia given resilience of the labor market and higher commodity prices for key Australian exports. The team upgrades their real GDP growth forecast by 0.3pp across 2022 and 2023 to 4.6% and 2.8% respectively and higher nominal exports, terms of trade and rising commodity prices suggest nominal GDP will rise by 9.6% this year. The team expects Australia’s unemployment rate to fall to 3.3% in 2022 and to 3% by 2023-end, suggesting a labor market at full-employment. The team also upgrades its inflation outlook with headline CPI expected to peak at 5.1% in H2’22, while underlying CPI rises to 3.5% across H2 and overshoots the RBA’s 2%-3% target range with risks skewed to the upside.
  • AUD: Citi analysts’ key upward revision is to household consumption, which is expected to rise 8.7% (+2.4pp) in 2022, driven by better-than-expected labor market outcomes and suggests that excess spare capacity in the labor market will likely be eroded by the end of 2022. With the unemployment rate expected to fall to 3.3%, this will be lower than RBA’s February SMP forecast of 3.75% across 2022 and 2023 and to 3% by the end of next year and RBA’s estimate on NAIRU around 4%. Meanwhile, higher iron-ore, coal and gas prices will likely boost company profits and increase nominal export values–rising 20.1%.
  • AUD: Reiterating Citi analysts’ RBA view…the RBA tightening cycle should see August as the timing of the first cash rate hike (15bp to 0.25%) and a cash rate likely to rise to 0.75% by the end of 2022, and up to 1.75% by end of 2023, with a terminal cash rate of 2.5% later in 2024. This is still less hawkish than market pricing and unlike the BoC and possibly the RBNZ, the team favors a more gradual RBA tightening cycle to alleviate concerns that the Bank may have around the sensitivity of households to interest rate rises. That said, the risk is tilted towards a more hawkish policy path where the RBA may need to hike earlier in June, with inflation surprising on the upside and with a year-end cash rate of 1.00% in 2022.

 

Canadian jobs report - labor market tightens further

  • CAD: Canada’s headline employment rises by ~73k jobs in March, with the unemployment rate falling further below pre-pandemic levels to 5.3% with participation unchanged at 65.4%. Meanwhile, average wages of permanent employees rise 3.7%YoY, further evidence of a tight labor market that Citi analysts expect would support the BoC accelerating the pace of its rate hiking cycle with a 50bp hike this week, followed by additional 50bp hikes in June and July and the policy rate reaching 2.75% by year-end. Citi analysts also look for signs of stronger wage growth over coming months while the low unemployment rate could also be used as further evidence that actual output is outpacing potential and rates need to rise back towards neutral.

 

Week Ahead

  • USD: US March CPI MoM – Citi: 1.3%, median: 1.2%, prior: 0.8%; CPI YoY – Citi: 8.6%, median: 8.4%, prior: 7.9%; CPI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 0.4%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.5%; CPI ex Food, Energy YoY – Citi: 6.5%, median: 6.6%, prior: 6.4% - Citi analysts expect a 0.42%MoM increase in core CPI in March with risks tilted slightly to the upside, although with a notable downside risk as well. The latter will be very important to assess in the event of a possible downside surprise to core CPI in March. 
  • USD: US March Retail Sales – Citi: 1.3%, median: 0.6%, prior: 0.3%, Retail Sales ex Auto – Citi: 2.6%, median: 0.9%, prior: 0.2%, Retail Sales ex Auto, Gas – Citi: 1.2%, median: 0.0%, prior: -0.4%, Retail Sales Control Group – Citi: 1.2%, median: -0.1%, prior: -1.2% - Citi analysts expect a strong rise in retail sales in March, with total sales up 1.3%, sales excluding autos rising by 2.6%, and sales in the retail control group rising 1.2%. 
  • USD: US March Industrial Production (IP) – Citi: 0.3%, median: 0.4%, prior: 0.5%, Manufacturing Production – Citi: 0.5%, median: 0.4%, prior: 1.2%, Capacity Utilization – Citi: 77.7%, median: 77.8%, prior: 77.6% - US IP should rise 0.3%MoM with a slightly stronger 0.5% increase in the largest subset of manufacturing production. This would be in line with another rise in the number of hours worked in manufacturing in March.
  • USD: US March PPI Final Demand MoM – Citi: 1.6%, median: 1.1%, prior: 0.8%, PPI Final Demand YoY – Citi: 11.0%, median: 10.6, prior: 10.0%, PPI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 0.8%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.2%, PPI ex Food, Energy YoY – Citi: 8.7%, median: 8.4%, prior: 8.4%, PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services MoM – Citi: 0.8%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.2% - Similar to CPI, and likely even to a greater degree, PPI should jump substantially in March due to food and energy prices, reflecting the jump higher in global commodity prices in March.
  • USD: University of Michigan April Consumer Sentiment – Citi: 61.1, median: 58.8, prior: 59.4; University of Michigan April 1Yr Inflation Expectations – Citi: 5.5%, prior: 5.4% - Citi analysts expect another rise in the 1Yr inflation expectations measure to 5.5% in April, with upside risks to the Fed’s preferred 5-10Yr measure. This longer-term measure of inflation expectations is unlikely to remain stable if short-term expectations continue to rise.
  • EUR: ECB Meeting – Policy Rate (Deposit Facility Rate): Citi Forecast -0.5%, Consensus -0.5%, Prior -0.5% - net asset purchases are set to continue at least until the end of June, rate hikes can only happen thereafter and TLTROs carry on until end-2024. However, nothing is set in stone and every meeting is live. A fixed end-date to net asset purchases, signals on pace or step-size of rate hikes could trigger a market reaction.
  • EUR: Germany: ZEW Expectations, April: Citi Forecast -46.0, Consensus -48.5, Previous -39.3 (Sentix data last week plunged further); Current Assessment, April: Citi Forecast -31.0, Consensus -35.0, Previous -21.4; Euro Area: ZEW Expectations, April: Citi Forecast -46.0, Previous -38.7.
  • GBP: UK Employment, Dec-Feb: Citi Forecast 75k 3M/3M, Consensus 35k 3M/3M, Prior -12k 3M/3M (participation pushing higher); Unemployment Rate, Dec-Feb: Citi Forecast 3.8%, Consensus 3.9%, Prior 3.9% (small reduction owing to base effects); Average Weekly Earnings, Dec-Feb: Citi Forecast 5.3% YY, Consensus 5.4% YY, Prior 4.8% YY (bonus pay strong); AWE Ex-Bonus, Dec-Feb: Citi Forecast 3.8% YY, Consensus 4.0% YY, Prior 3.8% YY (but Pay-E data suggests weakness) – Citi analysts expect unemployment to have fallen back to pre-Covid levels with headline wage growth also accelerating. 
  • GBP: UK CPI Inflation, March: Citi Forecast 6.8% YY, Consensus 6.7% YY, Previous 5.5% YY (BoE: 5.9% YY (Feb MPR)), CPI Core, March: Citi Forecast 5.3% YY, Consensus 5.4% YY, Previous 4.4% YY (core goods resilient) – UK CPI inflation is likely to once again surprise to the upside as core goods and transport inflation show signs of upward pressure. Services inflation is also likely to jump higher from April. 
  • CAD: Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Citi: 1.00%, median: 0.75%, prior: 0.50% - following the start of its rate hiking cycle with a 25bp hike in March, Citi analysts now expect the BoC to speed up the pace that it raises rates with a 50bp increase in the policy rate to 1.0% at its April meeting this week. The team also expects this to come alongside an announcement that the BoC will begin to run down its balance sheet. Governor Macklem indicated in March that the BoC plans to allow all Government of Canada bonds on its balance sheet to mature without reinvestment, which would suggest around C$50bn running off this year. The meeting will also feature updated forecasts in the April MPR. Citi analysts see mostly balanced risks around GDP forecasts with some slight upside risks, but inflation forecasts will be the more important update.
  • NZD: RBNZ OCR Decision Citi forecast; +25bps to 1.25%, Previous; +25bps to 1.0% - Citi analysts expect the MPC to lift the OCR by 25bps at the April 13 meeting to a level of 1.25% and to repeat the sentence from the February 23 policy statement that “the committee agreed that further removal of monetary policy stimulus is expected over time given the medium-term outlook for growth and employment, and the upside risks to inflation”. This is because the RBNZ remains concerned about inflation expectations rising above the target for longer and for employment to remain above its maximum sustainable level.
  • AUD: Australian March Labor Force: Citi employment change forecast; 40k, Previous; 77.4k, Citi unemployment rate forecast: 3.9%, Previous; 4.0%, Citi participation rate forecast; 66.5%, Previous; 66.4% - Citi analysts expect a solid monthly increase in jobs that will likely see the unemployment rate drop below 4% in March (RBA’s NAIRU estimate), despite the expected pick-up in the labor force participation rate. Record labor demand, as evidenced by the 423.5k vacant jobs across the country, suggests that the Australian labor market will tighten further over the coming months. Underemployment and underutilization rates have steadily declined, and Citi analysts expect the trend to continue. An unemployment rate of 3.9% would likely be considered consistent with levels of full-employment, although the RBA has stated previously that NAIRU could be even lower.
  • CNH: China Trade Balance (USD bn) March: Citi Forecast 17, Consensus 23.7, Previous 94.4; Exports (%YoY): Citi Forecast 6.0, Consensus 13.1, Previous 20.9; Imports (%YoY): Citi Forecast 4.0, Consensus 8.0, Previous 19.5 – China’s trade growth might slow down substantially in March amid the lock downs in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Dongguan, etc. However, although Shanghai and Guangdong province account for 7.3% and 23.1% of China’s exports and 14.4% and 18.5% of imports in 2021, the impact on trade may be controllable. Indeed, China’s PMI export order and import sub-index have declined -1.8ppt and -1.7ppt, much less than 20 ppt and 17.1 ppt declines in February 2020. Citi analysts expect export and import growth to remain positive but decelerate to single digits, at 6%YoY and 4%YoY, respectively, from 16.3%YoY and 15.5%YoY in January-February. As a result, the trade surplus is estimated at ~US$17bn in March.

This is an extract from the Daily Currency Update, dated April 11, 2022. Please approach a Citigold Relationship manager if you would like more information. For the latest CitiFX house views and strategy, please click here -

https://asia.citi.com/wealthinsights/citifx-house-views-and-strategy

Related Articles

FX Thumbnail
By Citi Wealth Insights |

A notable change in BoJ Governor Ueda’s tone on Yen following a meeting with PM Kishida makes BoJ June and July meetings “live”

JPY: The BoJ summary of opinions released last week from the April meeting appears to be more hawkish than expected in comments relating to bond buys, rates and balance sheet though there is little mention on timing.
FXEconomy
FX Thumbnail
By Citi Global Wealth Investments |

FX Focus - DXY: Two Factors Needed To Convince The Fed For Rate Cuts

Powell at the Fed's May FOMC statement maintained that policy rates were sufficiently restrictive and that rate hikes were not being considered. With Q1 US data out of the way that had a number of seasonal quirks, expectations are that the cleaner Q2 data will show both inflation declining and US labor market weakening enough for the Fed to consider multiple rate cuts.
FXEconomy
FX Thumbnail
By Citi Wealth Insights |

Weaker-than-consensus US jobs and no hawkish pivot from the Fed may prove to be a turning point for DXY from its recent strength

Softer-than-expected 175k new jobs and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate from 3.829% to 3.865% follow Chair Powell’s guidance earlier last week that Fed official focus is shifting toward the employment mandate.
FXEconomy
View more articles

*Some products and platforms are segment- or region-specific. Please check with your Relationship Manager for more details.

Important information

In any instance where distribution of this communication (“Communication”) is subject to the rules of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”), this communication constitutes an invitation to consider entering
into a derivatives transaction under US CFTC Regulations §§ 1.71 and 23.605, where applicable, but is not a binding offer to buy/sell any financial instrument.

This Communication is prepared by Citi Global Wealth Investments (“CGWI”) which is comprised of the Investments and Capital Markets capabilities of Citi Private Bank and Citi Global Wealth at Work.

Citi Private Bank and Citi Global Wealth at Work are businesses of Citigroup Inc. (“Citigroup”), which provide clients access to a broad array of products and services available through bank and non-bank affiliates of Citigroup. Not all products and services are provided by all affiliates or are available at all locations. In the U.S., investment products and services are provided by Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (“CGMI”), member FINRA and SIPC, Citi Private Advisory, LLC (“CPA”), member FINRA and SIPC, and Citi Global Alternatives, LLC (“CGA”). CPA acts as distributor of certain alternative investment products to certain eligible clients’ segments. CGMI accounts are carried by Pershing LLC, member FINRA, NYSE, SIPC. Investment management services (including portfolio management) are available through CGMI, CGA, Citibank, N.A. and other affiliated advisory businesses.

Outside the U.S., investment products and services are provided by other Citigroup affiliates. Investment Management services (including portfolio management) are available through CGMI, CGA, Citibank, N.A. and other affiliated advisory businesses. These Citigroup affiliates, including CGA, will be compensated for the respective investment management, advisory, administrative, distribution and placement services they may provide.

CGWI personnel are not research analysts, and the information in this Communication is not intended to constitute “research”, as that term is defined by applicable regulations. Unless otherwise indicated, any reference to a research report or research recommendation is not intended to represent the whole report and is not in itself considered a recommendation or research report.

This Communication is provided for information and discussion purposes only, at the recipient’s request. The recipient should notify CGWI immediately should it at any time wish to cease being provided with such information.
Unless otherwise indicated, (i) it does not constitute an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell any security, financial instrument or other product or service, or to attract any funding or deposits, and (ii) it does not constitute a solicitation

If it is not subject to the rules of the CFTC (but see discussion above regarding communication subject to CFTC rules) and (iii) it is not intended as an official confirmation of any transaction.

Unless otherwise expressly indicated, this Communication does not take into account the investment objectives, risk profile or financial situation of any particular person and as such, investments mentioned in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Citi is not acting as an investment or other advisor, fiduciary or agent. The information contained herein is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice.

Recipients of this Communication should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances from their own tax, financial, legal and other advisors about the risks and merits of any transaction before making an investment decision, and only make such decisions on the basis of their own objectives, experience, risk profile and resources.

The information contained in this Communication is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be assured, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. Any assumptions or information contained in this Communication constitute a judgment only as of the date of this document or on any specified dates and is subject to change without notice. Insofar as this Communication may contain historical and forward looking information, past performance is neither a guarantee nor an indication of future results, and future results may not meet expectations due to a variety of economic, market and other factors.

Further, any projections of potential risk or return are illustrative and should not be taken as limitations of the maximum possible loss or gain. Any prices, values or estimates provided in this Communication (other than those that are identified
as being historical) are indicative only, may change without notice and do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size, nor reflect the value Citi may assign a security in its inventory. Forward looking information does not indicate a level
at which Citi is prepared to do a trade and may not account for all relevant assumptions and future conditions. Actual conditions may vary substantially from estimates which could have a negative impact on the value of an instrument.

Views, opinions and estimates expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other Citi businesses or affiliates, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, or investment advice, and are subject to change without notice based on market and other conditions. Citi is under no duty to update this document and accepts no liability for any loss (whether direct, indirect or consequential) that may arise from any use of the information contained in or derived from this Communication.

None of the financial instruments or other products mentioned in this Communication (unless expressly stated otherwise) is (i) insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other governmental authority, or (ii) deposits or other obligations of, or guaranteed by, Citi or any other insured depository institution.

Citi often acts as an issuer of financial instruments and other products, acts as a market maker and trades as principal in many different financial instruments and other products, and can be expected to perform or seek to perform investment banking and other services for the issuer of such financial instruments or other products. The author of this Communication may have discussed the information contained therein with others within or outside Citi, and the author and/or such other Citi personnel may have already acted on the basis of this information (including by trading for Citi's proprietary accounts or communicating the information contained herein to other customers of Citi). Citi, Citi's personnel (including those with whom the author may have consulted in the preparation of this communication), and other customers of Citi may be long or short the financial instruments or other products referred to in this Communication, may have acquired such positions at prices and market conditions that are no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests.

IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: Citi and its employees are not in the business of providing, and do not provide, tax or legal advice to any taxpayer outside Citi. Any statement in this Communication regarding tax matters is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used or relied upon, by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties. Any such taxpayer should seek advice based on the taxpayer’s particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor.

Neither Citi nor any of its affiliates can accept responsibility for the tax treatment of any investment product, whether or not the investment is purchased by a trust or company administered by an affiliate of Citi. Citi assumes that, before making any commitment to invest, the investor and (where applicable, its beneficial owners) have taken whatever tax, legal or other advice the investor/beneficial owners consider necessary and have arranged to account for any tax lawfully due on the income or gains arising from any investment product provided by Citi.

This Communication is for the sole and exclusive use of the intended recipients, and may contain information proprietary to Citi which may not be reproduced or circulated in whole or in part without Citi’s prior consent. The manner of circulation and distribution may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries. Persons who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves of, and to observe such restrictions. Citi accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. Any unauthorized use, duplication, or disclosure of this document is prohibited by law and may result in prosecution.

Other businesses within Citigroup Inc. and affiliates of Citigroup Inc. may give advice, make recommendations, and take action in the interest of their clients, or for their own accounts, that may differ from the views expressed in this document.
All expressions of opinion are current as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Citigroup Inc. is not obligated to provide updates or changes to the information contained in this document.

The expressions of opinion are not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Real results may vary.

Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Citigroup Inc. and its affiliates do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. Throughout this publication where charts indicate that a third party (parties) is the source, please note that the attributed may refer to the raw data received from such parties. No part of this document may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means, or distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director, or authorized agent of the recipient without Citigroup Inc.’s prior written consent.

Citigroup Inc. may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person in connection with transactions placed by Citigroup Inc. for its clients involving securities that are the subject of this document or future editions of the document.

RISKS

Investments in financial instruments or other products carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Financial instruments or other products denominated in a foreign currency are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which may have an adverse effect on the price or value of an investment in such products. This Communication does not purport to identify all risks or material considerations which may be associated with entering into any transaction.

Structured products can be highly illiquid and are not suitable for all investors. Additional information can be found in the disclosure documents of the issuer for each respective structured product described herein. Investing in structured products is intended only for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks of such an investment. Investors should carefully review and consider potential risks before investing.

OTC derivative transactions involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investment products are not insured, carry no bank or government guarantee and may lose value. Before entering into these transactions, you should: (i) ensure that you have obtained and considered relevant information from independent reliable sources concerning the financial, economic and political conditions of the relevant markets; (ii) determine that you have the necessary knowledge, sophistication and experience in financial, business and investment matters to be able to evaluate the risks involved, and that you are financially able to bear such risks; and (iii) determine, having considered the foregoing points, that capital markets transactions are suitable and appropriate for your financial, tax, business and investment objectives.

This material may mention options regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Before buying or selling options you should obtain and review the current version of the Options Clearing Corporation booklet, Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. A copy of the booklet can be obtained upon request from Citigroup Global Markets Inc., 390 Greenwich Street, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10013.

If you buy options, the maximum loss is the premium. If you sell put options, the risk is the entire notional below the strike. If you sell call options, the risk is unlimited. The actual profit or loss from any trade will depend on the price at which the trades are executed. The prices used herein are historical and may not be available when you order is entered. Commissions and other transaction costs are not considered in these examples. Option trades in general and these trades in particular may not be appropriate for every investor. Unless noted otherwise, the source of all graphs and tables in this report is Citi. Because of the importance of tax considerations to all option transactions, the investor considering options should consult with his/her tax advisor as to how their tax situation is affected by the outcome of contemplated options transactions.

Bonds are affected by a number of risks, including fluctuations in interest rates, credit risk and prepayment risk. In general, as prevailing interest rates rise, fixed income securities prices will fall. Bonds face credit risk if a decline in an issuer’s credit rating, or creditworthiness, causes a bond’s price to decline. High yield bonds are subject to additional risks such as increased risk of default and greater volatility because of the lower credit quality of the issues. Finally, bonds can be subject
to prepayment risk. When interest rates fall, an issuer may choose to borrow money at a lower interest rate, while paying off its previously issued bonds. As a consequence, underlying bonds will lose the interest payments from the investment and will be forced to reinvest in a market where prevailing interest rates are lower than when the initial investment was made.

(MLP’s) - Energy Related MLPs May Exhibit High Volatility. While not historically very volatile, in certain market environments Energy Related MLPS may exhibit high volatility.

Changes in Regulatory or Tax Treatment of Energy Related MLPs. If the IRS changes the current tax treatment of the master limited partnerships included in the Basket of Energy Related MLPs thereby subjecting them to higher rates of taxation, or if other regulatory authorities enact regulations which negatively affect the ability of the master limited partnerships to generate income or distribute dividends to holders of common units, the return on the Notes, if any, could be dramatically reduced. Investment in a basket of Energy Related MLPs may expose the investor to concentration risk due to industry, geographical, political, and regulatory concentration.

Mortgage-backed securities ("MBS"), which include collateralized mortgage obligations ("CMOs"), also referred to as real estate mortgage investment conduits ("REMICs"), may not be suitable for all investors. There is the possibility of early return of principal due to mortgage prepayments, which can reduce expected yield and result in reinvestment risk. Conversely, return of principal may be slower than initial prepayment speed assumptions, extending the average life of the security up to its listed maturity date (also referred to as extension risk).

Additionally, the underlying collateral supporting non-Agency MBS may default on principal and interest payments. In certain cases, this could cause the income stream of the security to decline and result
in loss of principal. Further, an insufficient level of credit support may result in a downgrade of a mortgage bond's credit rating and lead to a higher probability of principal loss and increased price volatility. Investments in subordinated MBS involve greater credit risk of default than the senior classes of the same issue. Default risk may be pronounced in cases where the MBS security is secured by, or evidencing an interest in, a relatively small or less diverse pool of underlying mortgage loans.

MBS are also sensitive to interest rate changes which can negatively impact the market value of the security. During times of heightened volatility, MBS can experience greater levels of illiquidity and larger price movements. Price volatility may also occur from other factors including, but not limited to, prepayments, future prepayment expectations, credit concerns, underlying collateral performance and technical changes in the market.

Alternative investments referenced in this report are speculative and entail significant risks that can include losses due to leveraging or other speculative investment practices, lack of liquidity, volatility of returns, restrictions on transferring interests in the fund, potential lack of diversification, absence of information regarding valuations and pricing, complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting, less regulation and higher fees than mutual funds and advisor risk.

Asset allocation does not assure a profit or protect against a loss in declining financial markets.

The indexes are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

International investing entails greater risk, as well as greater potential rewards compared to US investing. These risks include political and economic uncertainties of foreign countries as well as the risk of currency fluctuations. These risks are magnified in countries with emerging markets, since these countries may have relatively unstable governments and less established markets and economics.

Investing in smaller companies involves greater risks not associated with investing in more established companies, such as business risk, significant stock price fluctuations and illiquidity.

Factors affecting commodities generally, index components composed of futures contracts on nickel or copper, which are industrial metals, may be subject to a number of additional factors specific to industrial metals that might cause price volatility. These include changes in the level of industrial activity using industrial metals (including the availability of substitutes such as manmade or synthetic substitutes); disruptions in the supply chain, from mining to storage to smelting
or refining; adjustments to inventory; variations in production costs, including storage, labor and energy costs; costs associated with regulatory compliance, including environmental regulations; and changes in industrial, government and consumer demand, both in individual consuming nations and internationally. Index components concentrated in futures contracts on agricultural products, including grains, may be subject to a number of additional factors specific to agricultural products that might cause price volatility. These include weather conditions, including floods, drought and freezing conditions; changes in government policies; planting decisions; and changes in demand for agricultural products, both with end users and
as inputs into various industries.

The information contained herein is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Readers interested in the strategies or concepts should consult their tax, legal, or other advisors, as appropriate.

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Different asset classes present different risks.

COUNTRY DISCLOSURES

Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong / Singapore organized under the laws of U.S.A. with limited liability. This communication is distributed in Hong Kong by Citi Private Bank operating through Citibank N.A., Hong Kong Branch, which is registered in Hong Kong with the Securities and Futures Commission for Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities), Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) and Type 9 (asset management) regulated activities with CE No: (AAP937) or in Singapore by Citi Private Bank operating through Citibank, N.A., Singapore Branch which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Any questions in connection with the contents in this communication should be directed to registered or licensed representatives of the relevant aforementioned entity. The contents of this communication have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong or any regulatory authority in Singapore. This communication contains confidential and proprietary information and is intended only for recipient in accordance with accredited investors requirements in Singapore (as defined under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289 of Singapore) (the “Act”) and professional investors requirements in Hong Kong(as defined under the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Ordinance and its subsidiary legislation). For regulated asset management services, any mandate will be entered into only with Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch and/or Citibank, N.A. Singapore Branch, as applicable.

Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch or Citibank, N.A., Singapore Branch may sub-delegate all or part of its mandate to another Citigroup affiliate or other branch of Citibank, N.A. Any references to named portfolio managers are for your information only, and this communication shall not be construed to be an offer to enter into any portfolio management mandate with any other Citigroup affiliate or other branch of Citibank, N.A. and, at no time will any other Citigroup affiliate or other branch of Citibank, N.A. or any other Citigroup affiliate enter into a mandate relating to the above portfolio with you. To the extent this communication is provided to clients who are booked and/or managed in Hong Kong: No other statement(s) in this communication shall operate to remove, exclude or restrict any of your rights or obligations of Citibank under applicable laws and regulations. Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch does not intend to rely on any provisions herein which are inconsistent with its obligations under the Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission, or which mis-describes the actual services to be provided to you.

Citibank, N.A. is incorporated in the United States of America and its principal regulators are the US Office of the Comptroller of Currency and Federal Reserve under US laws, which differ from Australian laws. Citibank, N.A. does not hold an Australian Financial Services License under the Corporations Act 2001 as it enjoys the benefit of an exemption under ASIC Class Order CO 03/1101 (remade as ASIC Corporations (Repeal and Transitional) Instrument 2016/396 and extended by ASIC Corporations (Amendment) Instrument 2022/623).

In the United Kingdom, Citibank N.A., London Branch (registered branch number BR001018), Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5LB, is authorized and regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (USA) and authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. The contact number for Citibank N.A., London Branch is +44 (0)20 7508 8000.

Citibank Europe plc (UK Branch), is a branch of Citibank Europe plc, which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and the European Central Bank. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Citibank Europe plc, UK Branch is registered as a branch in the register of companies for England and Wales with registered branch number BR017844. Its registered address is Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB. VAT No.: GB 429 6256 29. Citibank Europe plc is registered in Ireland with number 132781, with its registered office at 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1. Citibank Europe plc is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Ultimately owned by Citigroup Inc., New York, USA.

Citibank Europe plc, Luxembourg Branch, registered with the Luxembourg Trade and Companies Register under number B 200204, is a branch of Citibank Europe plc. It is subject to the joint supervision of the European Central bank and the Central Bank of Ireland. It is furthermore subject to limited regulation by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (the CSSF) in its role as host Member State authority and registered with the CSSF under number B00000395.
Its business office is at 31, Z.A. Bourmicht, 8070 Bertrange, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. Citibank Europe plc is registered in Ireland with company registration number 132781. It is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland under the reference number C26553 and supervised by the European Central Bank. Its registered office is at 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Ireland.

This document is communicated by Citibank (Switzerland) AG, which has its registered address at Hardstrasse 201, 8005 Zurich, Citibank N.A., Zurich Branch, which has its registered address at Hardstrasse 201, 8005 Zurich, or Citibank N.A., Geneva Branch, which has its registered address at 2, Quai de la Poste, 1204 Geneva. Citibank (Switzerland) AG and Citibank, N.A., Zurich and Geneva Branches are authorised and supervised by the Swiss Financial Supervisory Authority (FINMA).

In Jersey, this document is communicated by Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch which has its registered address at PO Box 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8QB. Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Citibank N.A. Jersey Branch is a participant in the Jersey Bank Depositors Compensation Scheme. The Scheme offers protection for eligible deposits of up to £50,000. The maximum total amount of compensation is capped
at £100,000,000 in any 5 year period. Full details of the Scheme and banking groups covered are available on the States of Jersey website www.gov.je/dcs, or on request.

Citi may offer, issue, distribute or provide other services in relation to certain unsecured financial instruments issued or entered into by BRRD Entities (i.e., EU entities within the scope of Directive 2014/59/EU (the BRRD), including EU credit institutions, certain EU investment firms and / or their EU subsidiaries or parents) (BRRD Financial Instruments).

In various jurisdictions (including, without limitation, the European Union and the United States) national authorities have certain powers to manage and resolve banks, broker dealers and other financial institutions (including, but not limited to, Citi) when they are failing or likely to fail. There is a risk that the use, or anticipated use, of such powers, or the manner in which they are exercised, may materially adversely affect (i) your rights under certain types of unsecured financial instruments (including, without limitation, BRRD Financial Instruments), (ii) the value, volatility or liquidity of certain unsecured financial instruments (including, without limitation, BRRD Financial Instruments) that you hold and / or (iii) the ability of an institution (including, without limitation, a BRRD Entity) to satisfy any liabilities or obligations it has to you. In the event of resolution, the value of BRRD Financial Instruments may be reduced to zero and or liabilities may be converted into ordinary shares or other instruments of ownership for the purposes of stabilisation and loss absorption. The terms of existing BRRD Financial Instruments (e.g., date of maturity or interest rates payable) could be altered and payments could be suspended.

There can be no assurance that the use of any BRRD resolution tools or powers by the BRRD Resolution Authority or the manner in which they are exercised will not materially adversely affect your rights as a holder of BRRD Financial Instruments, the market value of any investment you may have in BRRD Financial Instruments and/or a BRRD Entity’s ability to satisfy any liabilities or obligations it has to you. You may have a right to compensation from the relevant authorities if the exercise of such resolution powers results in less favourable treatment for you than the treatment that you would have received under normal insolvency proceedings. By accepting any services from Citi, you confirm that you are aware of these risks.

In Canada, Citi Private Bank is a division of Citibank Canada, a Schedule II Canadian chartered bank. References herein to Citi Private Bank and its activities in Canada relate solely to Citibank Canada and do not refer to any affiliates or subsidiaries of Citibank Canada operating in Canada. Certain investment products are made available through Citibank Canada Investment Funds Limited (“CCIFL”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Citibank Canada. Investment Products are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Investment Products are not insured by the CDIC, FDIC or depository insurance regime of any jurisdiction and are not guaranteed by Citigroup or any affiliate thereof.

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities to any person in any jurisdiction. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially.

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities to any person in any jurisdiction. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially.

Citigroup, its affiliates and any of the officers, directors, employees, representatives or agents shall not be held liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, or consequential damages, including loss of profits, arising out of the use of information contained herein, including through errors whether caused by negligence or otherwise.

CCIFL is not currently a member, and does not intend to become a member of the Mutual Fund Dealers Association of Canada (“MFDA”); consequently, clients of CCIFL will not have available to them investor protection benefits that would otherwise derive from membership of CCIFL in the MFDA, including coverage under any investor protection plan for clients of members of the MFDA.

Bahrain: IN BAHRAIN, CITI PRIVATE BANK OPERATES UNDER SPECIFIC APPROVAL ISSUED ON THE BASIS OF CITIBANK, N.A., BAHRAIN BRANCH’S BANKING LICENSE

Marketing and distribution of Investment Funds to clients in Bahrain requires Notification to the Central Bank of Bahrain and will be limited to UHNWI as defined below. Minimum investment subscription criteria will apply for products for all subscriptions for Bahrain domiciled clients.

Ultra-high net worth investors are:

(a) Individuals who have a minimum net worth (or joint net worth with their spouse) of USD 25 million or more

(b) Companies, partnerships, trusts or other commercial undertakings, which have financial assets available for investment of not less than USD 25 million; or

(c) Governments, supranational organisations, central banks or other national monetary authorities, and state organisations whose main activity is to invest in financial instruments (such as state pension funds).

GLOBAL CONSUMER BANK (ASIA PACIFIC AND EMEA):

“Citi analysts” refer to investment professionals within Citi Research (“CR”), Citi Global Markets Inc. (“CGMI”), Citi Global Wealth Investments (“CGWI”) and voting members of the Citi Global Investment Committee.
Citibank N.A. and its affiliates / subsidiaries provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this document.

The information in this document has been obtained from reports issued by CGMI and CGWI. Such information is based on sources CGMI and CGWI believe to be reliable. CGMI and CGWI, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and it may
be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute CGMI and CGWI's judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. This document is for general information purposes only and is not intended
as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or currency. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the written consent of Citibank N.A. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the appropriateness of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of a particular investment. Investments are not deposits, are not obligations of, or guaranteed or insured by Citibank N.A., Citigroup Inc., or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries, or by any local government or insurance agency, and are subject to investment risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Investors investing in funds denominated in non-local currency should be aware
of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause a loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, prices can go up or down. Investment products are not available to US persons. Investors should be aware
that it is his/her responsibility to seek legal and/or tax advice regarding the legal and tax consequences of his/her investment transactions. If an investor changes residence, citizenship, nationality, or place of work, it is his/her responsibility
to understand how his/her investment transactions are affected by such change and comply with all applicable laws and regulations as and when such becomes applicable. Citibank does not provide legal and/or tax advice and is not responsible
for advising an investor on the laws pertaining to his/her transaction.

Citi Research (CR) is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For more information, please refer to https://www.citivelocity.com/cvr/eppublic/citi_research_disclosures.

MARKET SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES

Market Specific Disclosures

Hong Kong: This communication is distributed in Hong Kong by Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited ("CHKL") and/or Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch (“CBNA HK”, Citibank, N.A. is organized under the laws of U.S.A. with limited liability). CHKL and CBNA HK provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this communication. Although information in this communication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CHKL and CBNA HK do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.

This communication is for general information only, is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any products or services and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein
has not taken account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the suitability of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs,
and should seek independent advice before making an investment decision. You should obtain and consider the relevant product terms and conditions and risk disclosure statement, and consider if it’s suitable for your objectives, financial situation or needs before making any investment decision. Investors are advised to obtain independent legal, financial and taxation advice prior to investing. Investments are not deposits, are not protected by the Deposit Protection Scheme in Hong Kong
and are subject to investment risk including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.

This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information in any jurisdiction in which it is unlawful to distribute such information to any person in such jurisdiction.

CHKL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

Singapore: This communication is distributed in Singapore by Citibank Singapore Limited (“CSL”) to selected Citigold/Citigold Private Clients. CSL provides no independent research or analysis of the substance or in preparation of this communication. Please contact your Citigold/Citigold Private Client Relationship Manager in CSL if you have any queries on or any matters arising from or in connection with this communication. Investment products are not insured under
the provisions of the Deposit Insurance and Policy Owners’ Protection Schemes Act of Singapore and are not eligible for deposit insurance coverage under the Deposit Insurance Scheme.

This communication is for general information only and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has no regard to the specific objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person and is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Any person interested in the strategies or concepts mentioned herein should consult their independent tax, legal, financial or other advisors,
as appropriate. This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom
it is unlawful to distribute such information or make any offer or solicitation.

Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making
an investment decision. Interested investors should seek the advice of their financial adviser about the issues discussed herein as appropriate. Should investors choose not to seek such advice, they should carefully consider the risks associated
with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives and assess whether the investment product is suitable for
themselves. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CSL does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from Its use.

CSL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

UAE: This document is distributed in UAE by Citibank, N.A. UAE. Citibank N.A. UAE is licensed by UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (“SCA”) to undertake the financial activity as Promoter under license number 602003.

Citibank N.A. UAE is registered with Central Bank of UAE under license numbers BSD/504/83 for Al Wasl Branch Dubai, 13/184/2019 for Mall of the Emirates Branch Dubai, BSD/2819/9 for Sharjah Branch, and BSD/692/83 for Abu Dhabi Branch.

This is not an official statement of Citigroup Inc. and may not reflect all of your investments with or made through Citibank. For an accurate record of your accounts and transactions, please consult your official statement. Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives.
At any time, Citigroup companies may compensate affiliates and their representatives for providing products and services to clients.

United Kingdom: This document is distributed in the U.K. by Citibank UK Limited and in Jersey by Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch.

Citibank UK Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Our firm’s Financial Services Register number is 805574. Citibank UK Limited
is a company limited by shares registered in England and Wales with registered address at Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB, Companies House Registration No. 11283101.

Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Citi International Personal Bank is registered in Jersey as a business name of Citibank N.A. The address of Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is P.O. Box 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8QB. Citibank N.A. is incorporated with limited liability in the USA. Head office: 399 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10043, USA.

© 2024 Citigroup Inc. Citi, Citi and Arc Design and other marks used herein are service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates, used and registered throughout the world.

DISCLAIMER [+]