Citi Wealth Insights

Focus may likely shift to US Q2 earnings season which unofficially begins with many of the big banks reporting on Tuesday, July 14.

In the months ahead, occasional bouts of uncertainty and market volatility can be expected, with a potential re-emergence of COVID-19 cases, US-China relations and US elections among the top risks.

The US Federal Reserve’s purchases of corporate bond ETFs alleviates liquidity concerns that created sharp price declines during March-April sell-off.

The unexpected easing by the Federal Reserve was not yet needed from the perspective of the US domestic economy, but was warranted due to a high exposure to the uncertainty shock. More central bank easing is likely to be needed, when real economic data starts to weaken.

Citi analysts believe the S&P 500 EPS may have bottomed in Q3 2019 and profit growth could accelerate into 2020 as a strong US consumer and recovering global demand drive a pickup in industrial production.

The US-China Phase 1 deal represents a milestone as it grants a de-escalation of trade tensions, and reaches some commitments on intellectual property and technology issues. It should provide some reprieve to the global economy as some uncertainty is lifted.