Global investors have behaved tentatively before recent elections. Yet, looking back, global equity fund inflows have followed each of the prior four US elections. Citi analysts think 2021 and 2022 could see a period of strong economic growth and market performance.
Economy/Politics
US
Europe
Asia Pac / EM
Coronavirus COVID-19
East vs. West: A Contrast in COVID-19 Outcomes
By Celestee Tan
After a summer reprieve, the rise of a second wave of COVID-19 in US & Europe was widely anticipated. In comparison, COVID-19 infection rates have remained dramatically lower in much of Asia.
News of President Trump’s infection highlights the increased health risks for the US and strengthens the hands of those arguing for a measured approach to economic re-openings. At the margin, Citi analysts think that the news may move Republicans toward a compromise on greater stimulus efforts.
Investors are getting more focused on November 3rd and its outcome. To be fair, the US election is more than two months away and things could change depending on COVID-19 trends, pace of economic re-opening, debates around policy and geopolitical developments.
The US economy and employment may continue to improve slowly. Looking further out, Citi analysts are increasingly optimistic on the state of business cycle and growth prospects for 2021 and 2022.
With just 4% of the world population, new cases in the US are near 30% globally. A more sustained US fiscal response may be necessary and investors are also starting to focus on the US Presidential elections in November.
