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Citi Wealth Insights

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Keeping an Eye on the US Election

Investors are getting more focused on November 3rd and its outcome. To be fair, the US election is more than two months away and things could change depending on COVID-19 trends, pace of economic re-opening, debates around policy and geopolitical developments.
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Position for Growth, Rate Risks and Weaker USD

Two major risks for markets going forward are likely to be sustaining the growth that is underway, and sensitivity to rising interest rates. On the other hand, Citi analysts believe the broad US dollar basket may have peaked in value in early 2017 and expect the USD to depreciate over the next 5-10 years. Thus, there are likely to be diversification benefits from owning non-US assets.
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Allocating Equity Overweights More Broadly

A narrow focus on performance may accumulate overweights in the most over-valued assets in time. Citi’s Global Investment Committee is overweight global equity, allocating more broadly across beaten down sectors to increase diversification.
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An Evolving Pandemic – Opportunities and Risks

As major parts of the US economy reopened, a re-acceleration of COVID-19 cases began with some states recording daily highs. However, Citi analysts think it is unlikely to see a repeat of indiscriminate shutdowns across the world economy as a response to the threat.
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Simmering Tensions

Tensions between US and China are likely to present real risks to the world economy, with recovery largely dependent on the economic rebound of the world’s two largest economies. Geopolitical / political disruptions are key risks and diversification remains paramount in managing potential volatilities.
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Uncertainties in the Recovery

As global economies start to re-open from containment measures, uncertainties surround the pace of recovery, which is likely to be uneven across regions. Global GDP may contract by 3.5% in 2020, before growing 5.5% in 2021.
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