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Citi Wealth Insights

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Staying Positive on Global Equities

Present interest rate levels and early-cycle growth conditions still favor equities more than bonds. Barring a massive bout of exuberance in equities and a sharp rise in yields, the Citi's Global Investment Committee is likely to overweight equities for a lengthy period.
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More Stimulus and Vaccines Appear on the Way

US President Biden proposed a support package of US$1.9 trillion, which if passed in the state presented, adds the capacity to address immediate needs with enough aid to address a longer-lasting crisis if needed. Regulatory approvals of more vaccines in the US and Europe are also pending and appear positioned to succeed in the developing world given their less stringent storage requirements.
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New Economic Cycle, New Opportunities

With large-scale production and additional vaccines likely, an end to the global pandemic is expected to begin by mid-year 2021, bringing a potential sharp broadening out of the world economic recovery in the second half of 2021. Citi’s Global Investment Committee thus increased its Overweight in Equities, and increased its Underweight in Bonds. Gold and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) remain Overweight while Cash remains Underweight.
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Looking Beyond 4Q 2020 Earnings

Firms globally are expected to close out their books for 2020 in coming weeks. As the spike in new COVID-19 cases late in 2020 led to a ramp-up in restrictions across the US and Europe, 4Q 2020 could be another negative quarter for US and global earnings per share (EPS) growth. However, focus is likely to be on a strong year of earnings growth ahead.
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Focus on COVID-19 Recovery, not Politics

While political news causes markets to rise or fall, the impact of government decisions is likely to be priced in swiftly. Citi analysts caution investors to follow vaccines, not politics. Despite the uncertainty associated with global government actions, COVID-19's eventual defeat remains the major factor that may drive investment returns in 2021-22.
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Democrats Win Georgia Elections

Following Tuesday night’s special Senate elections in Georgia, Democrats appear likely to gain control of both Houses of Congress, albeit with a narrow majority in both the House and Senate. But importantly for President-elect Biden as he enters office, Democrats could now control the legislative agenda, judges and other nominations, and committee chairs.
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