Gold continues to lead commodities in year-to-date performance, proving to be an outperformer and acting as risk hedge in portfolios. Citi analysts continue to see gold prices trending up in the medium-term. Following a volatile 2Q, crude oil prices may be supported by demand improvements and lower supply.
Driven by the collapse in demand for gasoline and jet fuel, the near-term outlook for oil pricing is poor. Prices may reflect continued distress on record declines in demand for transportation fuels. Citi analysts advise caution and selectivity when investing in the energy sector.
On 20 April, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for delivery in May fell to an unprecedented -US$37.63. The combination of higher Saudi production earlier in the year caused by the OPEC price skirmish, a lack of significant US production cuts from its many small producers and the weakness in global demand caused by COVID-19 shuttering activities – has now hit home with a shortage of storage for US delivery oil.
The global oil industry may be reshaped from this year’s pressures. Citi analysts expect Brent and WTI prices to average US$17/bbl in 2Q and US$25-$30/bbl in 3Q and 4Q.
