Citi Wealth Insights

Citi analysts believe that oil can outperform other commodities even if trade tensions were to escalate. This is because supply-side factors can be far more influential than demand changes.

Commodities started off 2019 on the right foot with the best quarter since 2Q’16 and Citi analysts expect 2Q’19 to be another strong quarter.

Supply risks are tightening the oil market in 2019 with Citi analysts forecasting Brent oil prices in the $70s much of the time through 2Q-4Q.

Oil looks primed for upside moves now, and price spikes through 2019, given low inventories and acute geopolitical supply disruption risks. But how long could this last?

In this report, Citi analysts explore three cases of OPEC+ projection cuts and their respective inventory trajectories.

Recent slowdown in the global growth outlook, economic divergence and associated slowdown in trade has undermined demand for commodities.