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Citi Wealth Insights

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Oil Markets Poised to Get Worse Before Improving

The global oil industry may be reshaped from this year’s pressures. Citi analysts expect Brent and WTI prices to average US$17/bbl in 2Q and US$25-$30/bbl in 3Q and 4Q.
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Oil Shock Adds to Rising Risk

Brent crude prices fell by more than 20% from Friday’s close of US$45.27 after Saudi Arabia announced price cuts and output increase. This led to substantial losses in equities and energy credit that were already weak from COVID-19 contagion. At the time of writing, Brent at US$33 is the lowest since 2004, with the exception of a few weeks in early 2016.
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Confronting New Signs of Weakness

Citi analysts review the effect of COVID-19 on commodities and find that supply chain and inventory developments could have an impact throughout 2020.
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Commodities: Wildcards in 2020

The US-China trade relationship and US policies are among wildcards that could impact commodities in 2020. More recently, the coronavirus has also introduced new uncertainty.
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Bright Spots in Gold

Lower-for-longer interest rates, global trade tensions, heightened geopolitical rifts coupled with record central bank and investor buying activity, are all supportive of gold in the medium term. On the flip side, the outlook for oil looks more bearish with strong supply growth.
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Top 10 Surprises for Markets in 2019

As 2019 draws to an end, we take a look back at 10 of the year’s most consequential headlines impacting the financial markets.
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