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Citi Wealth Insights

Bringing Citi global views to you.

G10 FX labels

FX

US July jobs report shifts consensus towards a 75bp Fed hike in September

By Jai Tiwari |
USD: Defying all the signs of deceleration in other US labor market data, July’s non-farm employment jumps by 528k, well above consensus for a 250k rise with private hiring up 471k with 402k in services.
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EUR and USD symbols

FX

US - rising PCE, solid employment costs and personal income highlight inflationary pressures, personal spending beats

By Jai Tiwari |
USD: The US employment cost index (ECI) for Q2 is up 1.33%QoQ, above consensus for a 1.2% increase with details also showing a stronger reading.
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FX symbols

FX

Battle of the purchasing managers index (PMIs) for July – US, euro area and UK

By Jai Tiwari |
USD: US services flash PMI signals contraction, focus shifts to Fed tightening into a slowdown – in data released Friday, the US S&P manufacturing PMI comes in little changed in July, printing at 52.3 compared to 52.7 the prior month though with the orders sub-index falling just into contractionary territory at 49.9 and the new orders sub-index remaining in contractionary territory at 48.6.
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Federal Reserve

FX

US retail sales and University of Michigan data point to a 75bp Fed hike at the July-end meeting

By Citi |
USD: Strong nominal spending – but all in higher prices - US headline retail sales are up 1.0%MoM and the control group sales that exclude autos, gas and building materials rise 0.8% on the month in June.
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US Flag

FX

A still solid US jobs report highlights divergence between immediate labor demand and building forces of restraint on US economy

By Citi |
USD: US nonfarm payrolls rise by 372k jobs in June, stronger than consensus but with downward revisions to the prior 2 months of -74k. Average hourly earnings (AHE) are up a weaker than consensus +0.31%MoM but with revisions higher that put Y/Y AHE growth at 5.1% and the unemployment rate is steady at 3.6% for a fourth straight month.
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US flag

FX

Softer ISM manufacturing with signs of US demand slowing

By Citi |
USD: US ISM manufacturing moderates more than expected in June, falling to 53.0 from 56.1 in May. Both the new orders index and employment index fall into contractionary territory (below the 50-level), at 49.2 and 47.3 respectively while production rises only modestly to 54.9. Supplier deliveries also fall notably from 65.7 to 57.3 as does the prices index but to a still elevated level of 78.5.
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