Citi Wealth Insights

The US economy is growing at a fairly strong pace – But where is the inflation?

The S&P 500 advanced 4.0% in April to bring its YTD return to 18.2% while global equities, as measured by the MSCI All Country World index, returned 3.7% on the month and is now up 16.6% for the year. After the stellar performance, investors now start to ponder if they should “Sell in May and Go Away”

A dovish Fed, signs of turnaround in global macro sentiment and reducing trade risks are supportive for continued outperformance of cyclicals over defensives.

Citi’s Bear Market Checklist (BMC) shows only 4 out of 18 red flags, and suggests that it is too early to call the end of this ten year bull market.

By focusing on the segments least impacted by political risks, investors can still benefit from the sector’s late cycle earnings resilience and long-term demographic tailwinds.

Whilst Citi analysts see some headwinds as we enter into the summer low volume months, there are reasons to believe that the recovery in Asia may last through 2019.