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Annual & Mid-year Outlook | Economy | Asset Allocation | Equities | Fixed Income

Q4 2024 | At A Glance

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To download and view our key themes and strategy for Q4 2024, please click here

Our Key Observations

  • Q4 is likely to be a quarter of heightened volatility, but the broad direction of the global economy remains positive heading in 2025.
  • The US Federal Reserve began easing in September to preserve growth.
  • While geopolitical and supply chain risks remain elevated, these risks are unlikely to change the broad direction of the global economy.
  • We expect broadening earnings growth, supporting global equities into 2025.
  • The world has entered “Phase 3” and we expect a stronger investing environment globally.

 

Our Forecasts for 2024 going into 2025:

  1. US Fed Funds Rate could reach 3.4% at the end of 2025 following the September rate cut.
  2. Volatility in 2024 has not changed market fundamentals with growth expected.
  3. Forward EPS revisions have broadened across the globe. Our S&P 500 EPS forecasts have been raised for 2024 and 2025.

S&P EPS Forecast - see pdf for full accessibility

Source: Citi Global Wealth Investments, FactSet, Bloomberg as of August 29, 2024. All forecasts are expressions of opinion and are subject to change without notice and are not intended to be a guarantee of future events. Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Real results may vary. 

 

Positioning portfolios in the fourth quarter of 2024 – Economic and Market Observations

In August, volatile markets gave us an opportunity to realign portfolios and close our underweight to mega-cap tech. While equities have quickly rallied off the lows, long duration bonds remain expensive with yields below 4%, presenting an opportunity to realign portfolios towards equities including US small-cap growth stocks and international opportunities.

In September, The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points to 4.75% in September to help the US economy continue expanding as employment falls. Citi Wealth expects the Fed Funds Rate to head to 4% by mid-2025. EM Asia has traditionally reacted positively to fed rate cuts, especially when not associated with a recession. This favors markets with strong domestic growth momentum like India and those with secular industry growth like Korea and Japan. Fed easing also aids Hong Kong as it will help unwind a historically high rate premium vs China. Fed chair Jerome Powell said that they would act – and calibrate – its actions to preserve growth. Markets are likely to respond favorably, which is likely to preserve our 2025 growth forecasts.

We expect heightened market volatility over the next few weeks as America votes for its 47th President this November. On average, the S&P 500 has historically delivered a post-election rally with positive returns in the year after elections.

  

Our Investment Themes:

1. Sticking to Equity Broadening – Normalization and Growth Ahead

Broader equity opportunities as EPS recovers. There are return opportunities globally including in EM Asia, Europe as well as LatAm. For Japan equities, the August drawdown brings Japan equities below its historical average valuation and presents investors an opportunity to add Japan equities.

2. Rate cuts on the horizon – What does this mean for Bonds?

With 50 basis points of rate cuts in September, the Fed projects to bring rates down to 3-3.5% in 2025. The US treasury curve has begun pricing in easing measures. We maintain our preference for high quality intermediate-duration in the “belly of the curve” for income, to offset volatility and as a core portfolio holding.

3. EUR as a Funding Currency

Underperforming euro area fundamentals and resurgence in political risk premia in the euro area presents an opportunity to use EUR to fund currency purchases in economies with a stronger outlook.k.

 

To get a comprehensive review on how our themes for this quarter can be implemented in your portfolio, please reach out to your Relationship Manager.

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There can be no assurance that the use of any BRRD resolution tools or powers by the BRRD Resolution Authority or the manner in which they are exercised will not materially adversely affect your rights as a holder of BRRD Financial Instruments, the market value of any investment you may have in BRRD Financial Instruments and/or a BRRD Entity’s ability to satisfy any liabilities or obligations it has to you. You may have a right to compensation from the relevant authorities if the exercise of such resolution powers results in less favourable treatment for you than the treatment that you would have received under normal insolvency proceedings. By accepting any services from Citi, you confirm that you are aware of these risks.

Canada: Citi Private Bank is a business of Citigroup Inc. (“Citigroup”), which provides its clients access to a broad array of products and services available through bank and non-bank affiliates of Citigroup. Not all products and services are provided by all affiliates or are available at all locations.

In Canada, Citi Private Bank is a division of Citibank Canada, a Schedule II Canadian chartered bank. References herein to Citi Private Bank and its activities in Canada relate solely to Citibank Canada and do not refer to any affiliates or subsidiaries of Citibank Canada operating in Canada. Certain investment products are made available through Citibank Canada Investment Funds Limited (“CCIFL”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Citibank Canada. Investment Products are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Investment Products are not insured by the CDIC, FDIC or depository insurance regime of any jurisdiction and are not guaranteed by Citigroup or any affiliate thereof.

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities to any person in any jurisdiction. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially.

Citigroup, its affiliates and any of the officers, directors, employees, representatives or agents shall not be held liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, or consequential damages, including loss of profits, arising out of the use of information contained herein, including through errors whether caused by negligence or otherwise.

Citibank Canada Investment Funds Limited (“CCIFL”) is not currently a member and does not intend to become a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (“CIRO”); consequently, clients of CCIFL will not have available to them investor protection benefits that would otherwise derive from membership of CCIFL in the CIRO, including coverage under any investor protection plan for clients of members of the CIRO.

Bahrain: IN BAHRAIN, CITI PRIVATE BANK OPERATES UNDER SPECIFIC APPROVAL ISSUED ON THE BASIS OF CITIBANK, N.A., BAHRAIN BRANCH’S BANKING LICENSE

Marketing and distribution of Investment Funds to clients in Bahrain requires Notification to the Central Bank of Bahrain and will be limited to UHNWI as defined below. Minimum investment subscription criteria will apply for products for all subscriptions for Bahrain domiciled clients.

Ultra-high net worth investors are:

  1. Individuals who have a minimum net worth (or joint net worth with their spouse) of USD 25 million or more
  2. Companies, partnerships, trusts or other commercial undertakings, which have financial assets available for investment of not less than USD 25 million; or
  3. Governments, supranational organisations, central banks or other national monetary authorities, and state organisations whose main activity is to invest in financial instruments (such as state pension funds).

Israel: This communication is directed at persons who are "Eligible Clients" as such term is defined in the Israeli Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing, and Investment Portfolio Management law, 1995 (the "Advisory Law"). This communication is not intended for retail clients and Citi will not make such products or transactions available to retail clients. The presenter is not licensed as investment advisor by the Israeli Securities Authority (“ISA”). The information contained herein may relate to matters that are not regulated by the ISA. Any securities which are the subject of this communication may not be offered or sold to any Israeli person except pursuant to an exemption from the Israeli public offering rules.

UAE: In the UAE, Citibank N.A. UAE Branch is licensed by the Central Bank of the UAE as a branch of a foreign bank.

The private banking business operates under Citibank N.A. UAE branch which is licensed with UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (“SCA”) to undertake the financial activity of A) promotion under license number 20200000097 B) Trading broker in international markets under license number 20200000198.

Mutual funds distributed by Citibank N.A. UAE private banking business are registered with SCA.

The approval of SCA, in relation to the promotion of the investment products in the U.A.E. does not constitute a recommendation by SCA. to purchase or invest in the respective investment products and SCA accepts no responsibility and shall not be held liable for the failure of any concerned parties to fulfil their obligations and duties in relation to the investment products or for the accuracy and integrity of the data contained in the relevant subscription prospectus.

CONSUMER, CITIGOLD AND CITIGOLD PRIVATE CLIENT SEGMENT MARKET SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES

Hong Kong: This communication is distributed in Hong Kong by Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited ("CHKL") and/or Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch (“CBNA HK”, Citibank, N.A. is organized under the laws of U.S.A. with limited liability). CHKL and CBNA HK provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this communication. Although information in this communication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CHKL and CBNA HK do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.

This communication is for general information only, is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any products or services and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has not taken account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the suitability of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs, and should seek independent advice before making an investment decision. You should obtain and consider the relevant product terms and conditions and risk disclosure statement, and consider if it’s suitable for your objectives, financial situation or needs before making any investment decision. Investors are advised to obtain independent legal, financial and taxation advice prior to investing. Investments are not deposits, are not protected by the Deposit Protection Scheme in Hong Kong and are subject to investment risk including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.

This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information in any jurisdiction in which it is unlawful to distribute such information to any person in such jurisdiction.

CHKL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

Singapore: This communication is distributed in Singapore by Citibank Singapore Limited (“CSL”) to selected Citigold/Citigold Private Clients. CSL provides no independent research or analysis of the substance or in preparation of this communication. Please contact your Citigold/Citigold Private Client Relationship Manager in CSL if you have any queries on or any matters arising from or in connection with this communication. Investment products are not insured under the provisions of the Deposit Insurance and Policy Owners’ Protection Schemes Act of Singapore and are not eligible for deposit insurance coverage under the Deposit Insurance Scheme.

This communication is for general information only and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has no regard to the specific objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person and is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Any person interested in the strategies or concepts mentioned herein should consult their independent tax, legal, financial or other advisors, as appropriate. This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to distribute such information or make any offer or solicitation.

Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Interested investors should seek the advice of their financial adviser about the issues discussed herein as appropriate. Should investors choose not to seek such advice, they should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives and assess whether the investment product is suitable for themselves. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CSL does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.

CSL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

UAE: Citibank NA UAE is registered with Central Bank of UAE under license numbers BSD/504/83 for Al Wasl Branch Dubai, 13/184/2019 for Mall of the Emirates Branch Dubai, BSD/2819/9 for Sharjah Branch, and BSD/692/83 for Abu Dhabi Branch. Tel.: 04 311 4000. Citibank, N.A. - UAE Branch is licensed by the Central Bank of the UAE as a branch of a foreign bank.

Citibank N.A. UAE is licensed with UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (“SCA”) to undertake the financial activity of A) promotion under license number 20200000097 B) Trading broker in international markets under license number 20200000198.

Investment products are not bank deposits or obligations or guaranteed by Citibank N.A., Citigroup Inc. or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless specifically stated. Investment products are not insured by government or governmental agencies. Investment and Treasury products are subject to Investment risk, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results: prices can go up or down. Investors investing in investments and/or treasury products denominated in foreign (non-local) currency should be aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause loss of principal when foreign currency is converted to the investors home currency. Investment and Treasury products are not available to U.S. persons. All applications for investments and treasury products are subject to Terms and Conditions of the individual investment and treasury products. Customer understands that it is his/her responsibility to seek legal and/or tax advice regarding the legal and tax consequences of his/her investment transactions. If customer changes residence, citizenship, nationality, or place of work, it is his/her responsibility to understand how his/her investment transactions are affected by such change and comply with all applicable laws and regulations as and when such becomes applicable. Customer understands that Citibank does not provide legal and/or tax advice and are not responsible for advising him/her on the laws pertaining to his/her transaction. Citibank UAE does not provide continuous monitoring of existing customer holdings.

Product Key Fact Statements and all other fees and charges are mentioned in the Schedule of Fees and Charges can be found on our website - www.citibank.ae.

Citibank UAE is a distributor of mutual funds which are managed by asset management companies who are our third-party product providers. We use UBS AG as an intermediary for execution and custody services to offer equities, and bonds to our customers.

Mutual funds distributed by Citibank N.A. UAE Consumer Business are registered with SCA and structured notes distributed by Citibank N.A. UAE Consumer Business are approved by the Central Bank of UAE.

The approval of SCA, in relation to the promotion of the investment products in the U.A.E. does not constitute a recommendation by SCA. to purchase or invest in the respective investment products and SCA accepts no responsibility and shall not be held liable for the failure of any concerned parties to fulfil their obligations and duties in relation to the investment products or for the accuracy and integrity of the data contained in the relevant subscription prospectus.

The information provided herein does not constitute the marketing of any products or services to individuals resident in the European Union, European Economic Area, Switzerland, Guernsey, Jersey, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican, The Isle of Man, the UK, Data Privacy (GDPR, LGPD & NZPA)*

United Kingdom: This document is distributed in the U.K. by Citibank UK Limited and in Jersey by Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch.

Citibank UK Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Our firm’s Financial Services Register number is 805574. Citibank UK Limited is a company limited by shares registered in England and Wales with registered address at Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB, Companies House Registration No. 11283101.

Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Citi International Personal Bank is registered in Jersey as a business name of Citibank N.A. The address of Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is P.O. Box 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8QB. Citibank N.A. is incorporated with limited liability in the USA. Head office: 399 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10043, USA.

© 2024 Citigroup Inc. Citi, Citi and Arc Design and other marks used herein are service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates, used and registered throughout the world.

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