Citi Wealth Insights

After a summer reprieve, the rise of a second wave of COVID-19 in US & Europe was widely anticipated. In comparison, COVID-19 infection rates have remained dramatically lower in much of Asia.

Despite major sources of economic scarring that could impact Asia’s return to pre COVID-19 trend growth, parts of Asia are buffered by the dynamic technology sector and a more robust management of the pandemic. Compared to the Asian Financial Crisis, Asia banks are now better capitalized and the region could return to pre COVID-19 output levels by Q4 2021.

Investors in Asia have flocked to COVID-19 defensive or growth sectors like technology this year, while COVID-19 cyclical or value sectors have lagged significantly. Citi analysts expect this relative performance to reverse, at least partially, as re-opening takes place.

Amid tensions between US and China, Hong Kong’s (HK) prospects have come under pressure. Citi analysts share their views on key financial and economic questions from investors.

Although COVID-19 may have had an impact, overall IT spending plans are expected to grow, with software getting more funds, while hardware and services less.

China’s old age population share is likely to double from 12.6% to 26% in 2050 with total population likely peaking in the late 2020s then declining. From an equity strategy perspective, the aging population is like to lead to more divergent performance among sectors. In particular, healthcare, internet, consumer discretionary and insurance may benefit.