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Citi Wealth Insights

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Safe havens back in play as risk sentiment turns defensive; Fed Vice Chair Clarida leaves open the door to a further rate cut this year

Safe havens (JPY, CHF & Gold): US – China trade headlines on Friday bring risk aversion sentiment back to the table with officials reporting small progress as President Trump grants exemptions on over 400 Chinese items within to the current USD250bn of goods currently taxed BUT…..
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Safe haven (JPY & CHF) sentiment weak but for more fundamental reasons; US data surprises to the upside but USD still weakens

JPY: BoJ to have a deeper review at the October meeting - As expected, BoJ leaves its policy unchanged yesterday, but says it will review recent economic and financial developments more deeply at the next meeting scheduled Oct 30-31.
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A second hawkish rate cut but US – China trade, not Fed to drive USD sentiment; Tactically bearish safe havens despite Mideast tensions

Fed FOMC reduces the policy target range by 25bp to 1.75 – 2.00%, but the lack of further cuts implied by median “dots” and Chair Powell’s more “hawkish” comments sees front-end rates rise and USD strengthen modestly.
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Fed eases liquidity shortage by supplying USD through money market operations; Tactically bearish safe havens despite Mideast tensions

USD: The overnight session sees a reversal of the USD strength seen Monday and caused by a liquidity squeeze due to large unanticipated drawdowns of dollars for corporate tax payments.
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Tactically bearish Safe Havens despite Saudi oilfield attack; US – China trade outcome remains fundamental driver of USD sentiment

Safe Havens (JPY, CHF & Gold): Attack on Saudi oilfields probably not enough to damage risk sentiment unless US conducts military strikes on Iran -
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Crude Oil Prices Soar on Drone Attack

Global oil prices surge more than 10% at the open of Asia's trading on Monday after a drone strike on a Saudi Arabian oil facility affected about 5% of global supplies. Geopolitical events tend to see exaggerated initial impact in markets. With this, Citi analysts call for investors to see through any near-term market dislocations and remain carefully balanced in their asset allocation.
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