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Citi Wealth Insights

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US retail sales due tonight but the August 1 FOMC remains the key event; RBA to remain dovish, BoC neutral to slightly hawkish

The only US data release overnight is the NY July Fed Empire manufacturing survey which recovers after last month’s print (that was the weakest since October 2018).
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China - What to Expect from the Mid-Year Politburo Meeting?

The Politburo will meet to wrap up economic work in H1 and set the policy tone for H2 at the end of July. Markets would be eagerly looking for indication about possible policy change from the meeting.
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Japan-South Korean tensions exacerbates global trade conflicts

Japan-South Korean Tensions Exacerbates Global Trade Conflicts

Japan imposed restrictions on exports of three raw materials crucial to South Korea’s semiconductor and display producers. For the first five months of 2019, South Korea sourced 92% of photoresists, 94% of fluorinated polyimide and 46% of hydrogen fluoride from Japan. This makes it difficult to find alternatives, at least in the near term.
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US PPI implies solid core PCE but July Fed cut likely a done deal; China to undertake more macro prudential controls to stabilize CNY

US PPI final demand rises 0.1%MoM in June while PPI excluding food and energy is up a solid 0.3%MoM.
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Will the Trump Administration buy EURUSD? Fed Chair Powell maintains his dovish tone on day 2 of his semi-annual testimony

Citi analysts now sees FX intervention by the Trump Administration to weaken USD as a stronger possibility.
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TacticalPowell, FOMC Minutes signal July rate cut; Trade negotiators to find ways to implement Xi-Trump agreement; Trump aides asked to find ways to weaken USD

USD trades weaker as Fed Chair Powell delivers his key semi-annual testimony on the US economy to Congress and builds the case for a July rate cut.
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