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Citi

Citi Wealth Insights

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USD Likely at Near-Term Top

A hawkish Fed may keep USD elevated medium term while RMB faces more depreciation pressure.
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Stronger US data not as solid as it looks but still supports a hawkish Fed

USD: US Q4 real GDP rises by 6.9% (QoQ SAAR) in Q4 2021, much higher than consensus looking for 5.5% and Citi’s 5.9%.
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equities

4Q21 Earnings and 2022 Earnings Outlook

Record CEO confidence suggests that consensus estimates for 22% 4Q21 growth in the US and nearly 50% in Europe are more likely to surprise on the upside.
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commodities

Commodities: More Volatility Ahead for Energy

Citi analysts believe oil market volatility may continue amid fundamental structural change.
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fed

Fed Rate Hike Likely to Begin in March

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the Fed Funds rates unchanged at 0-0.25%, but indicated that a rate hike beginning in March was extremely likely.
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FOMC – Fed signals potentially faster hikes, welcomes tighter financial conditions

USD: Despite a largely as-expected post-meeting FOMC statement, Chair Powell surprises markets hawkishly at the press conference by focusing on the need to remove accommodation shortly while welcoming the current tightening of financial conditions as consistent with the Fed’s new policy stance.
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