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Citi Wealth Insights

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US CPI strong on transitory components & solid shelter prices

USD: Citi analysts take – the strong increase in March US core CPI released overnight is in line with upside surprises expected in the coming months as a number of components normalize.
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China – credit growth slows despite better-than-expected data

CNH: Chinese data - M2 growth slows notably in March, new loans beat market expectations, strong bond financing supports new TSF, but shadow banking activities remain depressed -
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Winners & Losers from Biden’s Infrastructure Plan

Negotiations could cause many changes to the bill before a final vote is taken, but much of President Biden's infrastructure plan appears to complement several of Citi’s “Unstoppable Trends”.
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EU-US divergence - mind the gap(s)!

EUR: Citi analysts - Europe is still struggling to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, while the US is continuing to recover.
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ECB Minutes – reinforcing need for accelerated asset purchases in Q2

EUR: The ECB Minutes overnight, note that while the overall euro area economic situation is likely to improve throughout 2021, uncertainty in the euro area remains high, owing to the persistently high rates of COVID-19 infection, spread of virus mutations and speed of vaccination campaigns.
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FOMC Minutes – Cautious on taper for now, inflation risks balanced

USD: Citi analysts - Minutes to the March 17th FOMC show it will still be “some time” before tapering, but also that officials expect stronger growth ahead and more balanced risk around inflation. Citi analysts continue to expect a Q4 ’21 taper and a late 2022 first Fed rate hike.
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