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Understanding Markets and Inflation
By |The sharpest “about face” in Fed policy in modern history has propelled a record combined drop in equities and fixed income, with both US stocks and long-term US Treasuries falling more than 10% in the last six months for the first time ever. In fact, there are only five previous periods in the past 60 years when both asset classes have lost more than 4% during the same time over half-year periods. Following joint declines in both US stocks and bonds, returns were solidly higher for both in the six months that followed on average. The five periods since the 1960s show 5.5% average gains for US equities and 10.9% for 10-year US Treasuries.
Continue ReadingCurrencies - Daily Update
Sterling shrugs off Brexit developments but can it shrug off rising political criticism of the BoE
By |GBP: UK ministers join criticism of the BoE - several unnamed UK Cabinet ministers over the weekend are seen adding their voices to criticism of the BoE over its handling of the pandemic recovery and associated spike in inflation.
Continue ReadingCurrencies - Daily Update
US data supports the Fed’s current view of raising rates by no more than 50bps
By |USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment falls sharply, inflation expectations remain unchanged – the May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index (preliminary) drops to 59.1 from April’s 65.2, much lower than consensus looking for 64.
Continue ReadingCurrencies - Daily Update
UK GDP weakness re-affirms challenges ahead
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Continue ReadingCurrencies - Daily Update
An above consensus US CPI inflation points to more broad-based pressures
By |USD: US core CPI rises a solid 0.57%MoM in April, stronger than the 0.40% increase consensus expected but which brings the Y/Y reading from 6.5% in March to 6.2% (consensus had expected an even lower outcome of 6.0%).
Continue ReadingCurrencies - Daily Update
Australia - strong retail sales & business conditions; overall inflationary pressures to persist
By |AUD: Australia’s real quarterly retail volumes rise 1.2% (consensus; 1.0%) in Q1 and on a nominal basis, retail turnover is up 2.9%.
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