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FX | Asia-Pacific | Europe | US

Bank of Japan’s mixed messages likely a green light to tactically drive Yen towards 150 against USD

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BoJ MPM review – another mixed presser from Governor Ueda

  • JPY: The BoJ leaves its monetary settings unchanged at its September MPM on Friday while also keepings its forward guidance unchanged. The BOJ continues to note “extremely high uncertainty surrounding economies and financial markets at home and abroad,” (the same language as July) which makes it difficult to make sweeping policy changes. The Bank reaffirms it will continue with its daily fixed rate buying operations at 1% and add to easing without hesitation if needed but at the same time, nimbly respond to prices, economic and financial conditions.
  • JPY: In an interview with the Yomiuri Shinbun on September 9, BoJ Governor Ueda had mentioned that obtaining sufficient information and data by year-end to decide on a policy change is not a zero possibility, which then led to speculation about NIRP termination by year-end. On Friday, Governor Ueda seeks to clarify those remarks by saying that had he ruled out the prospect of a policy change by year-end, that would bind policy decisions at upcoming MPMs which is something he wants to avoid.
  • JPY: However, there is some conflicting messaging on inflation and FX. The BOJ notes that “inflation expectations have shown some upward movements again” (the same language as last month), but still expects in the medium term for the pace of increase in core-CPI to decelerate given the extremely high uncertainty over prices and the economy. The Bank expects cost increases from import prices to wane but says there is a need to pay attention on the FX impact of the weak Yen on prices. Of note, the BOJ mentions it is watching FX developments closely.
  • JPY: Citi Research’s baseline scenario, predicated on a US recession from early 2024, continues to put the termination of YCC in October 2024 followed by an exit from NIRP in January 2025. However, Citi Research assign almost the same probability to early normalization if the US economy and Japan inflation remain resilient. In this risk scenario, the timing remains uncertain, but Citi Research expect YCC to be terminated as early as the January 2024 MPM and NIRP at the March 2024 MPM.

 

August nationwide CPI — persistent price pass-throughs continue

  • JPY: Japan’s nationwide core CPI (excluding only fresh food) rises 3.1% YoY in August as in July, slightly overshooting consensus expectations for a 3.0% YoY rise. Similarly, core-core CPI, i.e., CPI excluding fresh food and energy, increases 4.3% YoY in August, as in July. Core CPI to fall below 3% from September — Going forward, Citi Research expect core CPI to increase 2.8% YoY in September and October. Downward pressure from energy looks likely to increase in September. Meanwhile, Citi Research revise up their core-core CPI projection modestly from the August forecast, based on persistent price pass-throughs and Yen depreciation, as well as rising crude oil prices.

 

August customs-clearance trade - capital goods lead to export drop

  • JPY: In data released earlier last week, Japan real exports decline by -6.6% MoM in August after a 1.2% MoM increase in July. Capital goods including SPE are the main drag and the July-August average stands 0.1% above the Q2 average (+2.4% QoQ in Q2 and -3.5% QoQ in Q1). It remains to be seen if exports will start to rebound given that the global manufacturing cycle is still stagnating and Citi Research pencil in only a small QoQ increase for goods exports in Q3, envisaging a deceleration from Q2, when auto exports provided a strong boost. The plunge in capital goods exports reflects weak chip demand — capital goods exports fall -14.0% MoM in August following a 2.5% MoM advance in July, driven by SPE and chips. The Japanese government introduced stricter export controls on production equipment for leading-edge semiconductors in late July. However, the regional breakdown shows not only exports to China but also those for NIEs and ASEAN nations falling sharply.
  • JPY: Real imports drop MoM as well — real imports decline -4.0% MoM in August after a 1.8% MoM advance in July. The July-August average stands 0.5% below the Q2 average (-1.5% QoQ in Q2 and -5.0% QoQ in Q1). This leaves Japan’s trade deficit flat in August — the trade balance is ¥930.5bn in deficit before seasonal adjustments and ¥555.7bn in deficit after adjustments in August (-¥66.3bn and -¥600.2bn, respectively, in July). The trade deficit after seasonal adjustment though is largely unchanged in August, reaching the lowest level since end-2021.

 

Euro area PMIs point to a moderate contraction in GDP, euro area consumer confidence goes into reverse

  • EUR: In data released Friday, the euro area September (flash) manufacturing PMI edges down from 43.5 in August to 43.4 in September (Consensus 44.0, Citi 43.7) but the euro area PMI Services index rises from 47.9 to 48.4 (Consensus 47.6, Citi 47.0) that leaves the euro area Composite Output PMI up by 0.4 points to 47.1 (Consensus and Citi 46.5). At these levels, the PMI Composite output is consistent with a -0.2-0.3% QQ GDP contraction (Figure 5) and if it stays at this level, a slightly deeper contraction in Q4 looks likely. The PMIs also show that labor market deterioration continues gradually, with the weakest employment intentions in almost three years.
  • EUR: Country wise, France’s PMIs are surprisingly weak, supporting the outlook for the French economy to shrink in Q3 even though other business sentiment surveys appear more resilient and hard data has started Q3 on a positive note. And even within the PMIs, resilient employment expectations suggest French firms are looking through the soft patch and Banque de France itself, expects a modest expansion in Q3. Meanwhile, German business sentiment improves, but arguably with ‘low quality’. The key manufacturing PMI improves only slightly, suggesting sentiment is troughing but not yet rebounding meaningfully. Services PMI rebounds more sharply to 49.8, but that is undermined by employment expectations turning contractionary for the first time since January 2023.
  • EUR: Euro Area consumer confidence also goes into reverse –the EU Commission’s flash consumer confidence indicator falls from -16.0 in August to -17.8 in September (Consensus and Citi -16.5). Rising fuel prices put renewed pressure on real purchasing power, but rising borrowing costs and growing economic skepticism also appear to weigh. The ECB and the EU Commission have pinned their hopes for strengthening consumption in their respective projections last week, but the reversal suggests clear downside risks.

 

UK September PMIs highlight deterioration in employment outlook and UK consumer data shows trends remain soft…at best

  • GBP: Data released Friday shows the UK September (flash) services PMI printing at 47.2, down from 48.6 and well below consensus expectations (Citi 49.8, Consensus 49.4) and for those previously taking heart from stronger forward looking elements of the data, Friday’s release should prompt a re-appraisal. New work declines again to 48.7, with business optimism also ticking down. Here higher rates and weak purchasing power are noted as the major influences. The big news is on the employment index which falls nearly 5 points from 51.2 to 46.4 (in services). These data and the KPMG-RECs are now singing from the same hymn sheet. The price components of the series also fall further with input prices down from 68.5 to 64.9 and output prices declining from 57.1 to 56.4. Meanwhile, the September (flash) manufacturing PMI stabilizes this month, albeit at contractionary levels. Here new orders improve a little over 3ppt in a sign of a reversing inventory cycle. However even here contraction in employment rates accelerates - with the sub index down from 46.8 to 46.3. Here though output prices increase for the first time in three months. The notable news in this overall release is the sharp drop in the employment index in both services and manufacturing. The implication is that both the KPMG-RECs and PMI data are now telling the same story - namely employment reductions (Figure 8). 
  • GBP: UK August retail sales data for August shows a modest rebound after a sharp fall in July. The headline index is up by 0.4% MM, following a fall of 1.1% in August. The series excluding auto fuel also increases 0.6%, after a 1.4% fall in July. The data is notable in that the CHAPS data shows consumer services spending falling by nearly 5% MoM through August and the overall picture seems likely to remain relatively weak. Meanwhile, the UK GfK consumer confidence index for September shows some improvement, increasing from -25% to -21% (Citi -26%, Consensus -26%). These data are continuing to improve alongside a sequentially stronger picture for real household disposable income, although the level remains subdued overall. Here it is notable that the primary improvements are in the macroeconomic expectations series, which tend to be more sentiment driven although major purchases also pick up, in a sign durable spending may begin to pick up somewhat.

 

Week Ahead: US August Core PCE MoM, Personal Income, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales July S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, Conference Board September Consumer Confidence, Euro Area Recession Watch, September (flash) HICP, UK GDP Revisions and Savings, Italy Fiscal Update, Australia August Monthly CPI, August Retail Sales, Canada September CFIB Business Barometer, Canada July GDP by Industry MoM, Singapore CPI (%YoY) August, China Manufacturing PMI September

US: Core PCE, durable goods, housing & consumer confidence data in focus this week

  • US August Core PCE MoM – Citi: 0.1%, median: 0.2%, prior: 0.2%; Core PCE YoY – Citi: 3.8%, median: 3.9%, prior: 4.2% - elements of 0.28%MoM US core CPI in August but some softer details of PPI data lead Citi Research to forecast a more modest 0.14%MoM increase in core PCE inflation. Core services prices ex-housing, which rose a solid 0.37%MoM in CPI, should rise 0.17%MoM in PCE inflation while goods prices should decline modestly as in CPI. Shelter prices should continue to slow over the coming months, but this will have less of a disinflationary impact on PCE inflation than on CPI. Meanwhile, headline PCE inflation should rise 0.4%MoM due to higher energy prices and rebound modestly to 3.4%YoY.
  • US August Personal Income – Citi: 0.4%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.2%; Personal Spending – Citi: 0.6%, median: 0.4%, prior: 0.8% - incomes should rise a solid 0.4%MoM in August, with strength largely in labor incomes. A solid 0.6% increase in retail sales data in August also leads Citi Research to expect a similar increase in total personal spending.
  • US August Durable Goods Orders – Citi: -0.6%, median: -0.4%%, prior: -5.2%; Durable Goods Orders ex Trans – Citi: 0.3%, median: 0.2%, prior: 0.4%; Capital Goods Orders Non-defense ex Air – Citi: 0.0%, median: 0.1%, prior: 0.1% - durable goods orders should fall 0.6%MoM in August, reflecting a continued normalization in orders of transportation goods such as aircraft after recent strength. A continued pickup in demand for goods, as well as goods prices starting to rise again, would also be evident in a 0.3% increase in durable goods orders excluding transportation. The next durable goods report for September will likely reflect some impacts of the auto workers’ strike that began mid-way through the month.
  • US July S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA – Citi: 0.84%, median: 0.55%, prior: 0.92%; S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA – Citi: 0.03%, median: NA, prior: -1.17%; S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY – Citi: 0.76%, median: NA, prior: -0.02% - as the supply of existing homes for sale has been constrained by high mortgage rates discouraging owners from selling, housing resale prices have picked up substantially since the spring. Citi Research expect sizable increases to continue in the coming months, with a 0.84%MoM increase in the 20-City Case Shiller index and national home prices rising on a YoY basis again in July.
  • US August New Home Sales – Citi: 676k, median: 700k, prior: 714k; New Home Sales MoM – Citi: -5.4%, median: -2.0%, prior: 4.4% - new home sales should fall in August to 676k, a lower level than in the last few months but still well-above the lows in new home sales reached in mid-2022. While high rates have limited the supply of available existing homes for sale and pushed any marginal demand into new housing, high rates will still weigh on housing demand generally.
  • Conference Board September Consumer Confidence – Citi: 108.0, median: 105.5, prior: 106.1 - consumer confidence measures bottomed during summer of last year and have been generally improving since then after smoothing through some volatility. Citi Research expect a modest bounce back in the Conference Board consumer confidence index in September to 108.0 from 106.1 mainly because this measure is more sensitive to employment conditions than the University of Michigan Sentiment index and initial jobless claims have continued to trend down and declined to the lowest level since January last week.

 

Euro area: German ifo and euro area September (flash) HICP in focus this week

  • Euro Area Recession Watch – the slight improvement in the PMIs in September suggests that the euro area economy is in a moderate contraction phase, with consumer resilience offsetting weak manufacturing. In the Ifo (Monday) and ESI surveys (Thursday), Citi Research expect some evidence that manufacturing has reached a trough, but that weakness is spreading to services and thus the labor market. Euro Area money supply and credit data will likely also continue to paint a bleak picture. German Ifo Business Climate, September – Citi Forecast 85.6, Consensus 85.1, Prior 85.7; Ifo Expectations, September – Citi Forecast 83.2, Consensus 82.8, Prior 82.6; Ifo Current Assessment, September – Citi Forecast 88.0, Consensus 87.9, Prior 89.0; Euro Area Economic Confidence, September – Citi Forecast 92.5, Consensus 92.1, Prior 93.3 (95 recession).
  • Eurozone September (flash) HICP – headline and core inflation rates should drop back sharply on base effects (gas spike and German train ticket in Sep22), to 4.5% and 4.8%, respectively. However, sequential growth is more interesting to gauge price pressures - energy HICP should be up again this month, by 1.3% MM, and Citi Research pencil in another gain of 0.3% (seas adj) for core HICP (0.5% MM NSA). September is usually a month with a high concentration of price changes, which should allow those sub-sectors still lagging behind in the price adjustment to hike their prices. Euro area; HICP Inflation, September – Citi Forecast 4.5% YY, Consensus 4.5% YY, Prior 5.2% YY (large base effects in energy and core); Core Inflation, September – Citi Forecast 4.8% YY, Consensus 4.8% YY, Prior 5.3% YY (core HICP +0.3% MM (SA)).
  • UK: Revisions and savings — in focus for the UK this week will be the UK GDP revisions on the 29th September, and the credit data the same day. In the former case, the focus will be on the impact of the 2023 Blue Book revisions for growth in 2022, where the 1.8pp upward revision for 2020/1 will likely mean a small give back effect through 2022 as inventories were subsequently revised down. Elsewhere, the key object of interest is the income account data for Q2, where Citi Research expect the household savings rate to have fallen further to 8.3% from 8.8% in Q1 – although still well above pre-Covid levels. Also of interest here will be the data on corporate profitability, where Citi Research expect overall growth to have remained relatively subdued. Otherwise, UK credit growth for August should show mortgage approvals continuing only at a low ebb with credit conditions overall in the UK continuing to tighten. Quarterly National Accounts, GDP, Q2 – Citi Forecast 0.2% QQ, Consensus 0.2% QQ, Prior 0.1% QQ (BoE: 0.1%, possible downward revision).
  • Italy fiscal update – the Italian updated stability program (DEF) will be released this week and will likely report up-revisions to the 2023 and 2024 deficit targets, from 4.5% to 5% and 3.7% to 4%, respectively. Cash funding needs also likely to be higher than reported in April. Italy updated Deficit Target, 2023 – Citi Forecast 5.0%, Consensus 8.0% (2022 - revised up from 4.5%, 2024 at 4.0% (vs 3.7%)

 

Commodity Bloc: Australia’s monthly CPI, retail sales and Canada’s CFIB business survey in focus this week

  • Australia August Monthly CPI: Citi YoY forecast: 5.2%, Previous; 4.9% - monthly inflation likely accelerated from 0.2% in July to 0.6% in August. This would imply a yearly un-rounded reading of 5.248%, or rounded to 5.2%. Citi Research s the range for this week’s print as likely 5.1-5.5%, noting the longer tail as an upside risk to their forecast.
  • Australia August Retail Sales: Citi forecast: 0.5%, Previous; 0.5% - retail sales likely expanded further in August thanks to discretionary spending on services.
  • Canada CFIB Business Barometer (Sep) - the CFIB survey of businesses is the preferred monthly survey indicator in Canada, and recent data has continued to suggest easing inflationary pressures by the end of the year. Price plans among businesses, which tends to lead trends in core CPI, fell to 3.0% in the last reading for August. The BoC policy statement also cites corporate pricing behavior as a factor that will be closely watched in gauging if price pressures are returning to 2%. While this does suggest an eventually lower rate of core inflation, it may not be until early-2024 that this becomes apparent in hard data releases. Other details of the survey also suggest a loosening labor market, with a smaller share of firms indicating labor shortages, and the possibility for some slowing wage growth. These trends continuing in September CFIB data suggests similar dynamics could appear in the BoC’s Business Outlook Survey released next month ahead of the October 25 policy decision. The BoC would likely put the most weight on the BOS survey, but ultimately signs of easing inflationary pressures in survey data will need to be confirmed in hard data for the Governing Council to conclude rates are at an appropriately-restrictive level.
  • Canada July GDP By Industry MoM (Jul) – Citi: -0.1%, median: NA, prior: -0.2%; GDP YoY – Citi: 0.9%, median: NA, prior: 1.1% - Citi Research expect a modest -0.1% decline in July GDP by industry, slightly softer than Statistics Canada’s initial estimate for output to be flat on the month. Citi Research expect similar 0.1%MoM declines in both goods producing industries and services industries. Weakness in July GDP would be partly due the strike of port workers in British Columbia that lasted.

 

Asia EM: Singapore CPI and IP, China manufacturing PMI in focus this week

  • Singapore CPI (%YoY) August – Citi Forecast 4.0, Consensus 3.9, Prior 4.1; CPI (NSA, %MoM) – Citi Forecast 0.8, Prior -0.2; Core CPI (%YoY) – Citi Forecast 3.5, Consensus 3.5, Prior 3.8; Singapore Industrial Production (SA, %MoM) August – Citi Forecast -1.4, Prior 4.1; Industrial Production (%YoY) – Citi Forecast -3.4, Prior -0.9.
  • China Manufacturing PMI September – Citi Forecast 50.3, Prior 49.7 – Citi Research expect China’s manufacturing PMI to return to the expansionary regime in September, extending the recovery trend. If it materializes, it would further confirm the cyclical bottom of the economy. The impact of recent policy efforts will likely gradually show up in the data. Indeed, the operating rates of heavy industries such as asphalt and cement rebounded in September.

 

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(MLP’s) - Energy Related MLPs May Exhibit High Volatility. While not historically very volatile, in certain market environments Energy Related MLPS may exhibit high volatility.

Changes in Regulatory or Tax Treatment of Energy Related MLPs. If the IRS changes the current tax treatment of the master limited partnerships included in the Basket of Energy Related MLPs thereby subjecting them to higher rates of taxation, or if other regulatory authorities enact regulations which negatively affect the ability of the master limited partnerships to generate income or distribute dividends to holders of common units, the return on the Notes, if any, could be dramatically reduced. Investment in a basket of Energy Related MLPs may expose the investor to concentration risk due to industry, geographical, political, and regulatory concentration.

Mortgage-backed securities ("MBS"), which include collateralized mortgage obligations ("CMOs"), also referred to as real estate mortgage investment conduits ("REMICs"), may not be suitable for all investors. There is the possibility of early return of principal due to mortgage prepayments, which can reduce expected yield and result in reinvestment risk. Conversely, return of principal may be slower than initial prepayment speed assumptions, extending the average life of the security up to its listed maturity date (also referred to as extension risk).

Additionally, the underlying collateral supporting non-Agency MBS may default on principal and interest payments. In certain cases, this could cause the income stream of the security to decline and result in loss of principal. Further, an insufficient level of credit support may result in a downgrade of a mortgage bond's credit rating and lead to a higher probability of principal loss and increased price volatility. Investments in subordinated MBS involve greater credit risk of default than the senior classes of the same issue. Default risk may be pronounced in cases where the MBS security is secured by, or evidencing an interest in, a relatively small or less diverse pool of underlying mortgage loans.

MBS are also sensitive to interest rate changes which can negatively impact the market value of the security. During times of heightened volatility, MBS can experience greater levels of illiquidity and larger price movements. Price volatility may also occur from other factors including, but not limited to, prepayments, future prepayment expectations, credit concerns, underlying collateral performance and technical changes in the market.

An investment in alternative investments can be highly illiquid, is speculative and not suitable for all investors. Investing in alternative investments is for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing to bear the high economic risks associated with such an investment. Investors should carefully review and consider potential risks before investing. Certain of these risks may include:

  • loss of all or a substantial portion of the investment due to leveraging, short-selling, or other speculative practices;
  • lack of liquidity in that there may be no secondary market for the fund and none is expected to develop;
  • volatility of returns;
  • restrictions on transferring interests in the Fund;
  • potential lack of diversification and resulting higher risk due to concentration of trading authority when a single advisor is utilized;
  • absence of information regarding valuations and pricing;
  • complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting;
  • less regulation and higher fees than mutual funds; and
  • manager risk.

Individual funds will have specific risks related to their investment programs that will vary from fund to fund.

Asset allocation does not assure a profit or protect against a loss in declining financial markets.

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Different asset classes present different risks.

The indexes are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

International investing entails greater risk, as well as greater potential rewards compared to US investing. These risks include political and economic uncertainties of foreign countries as well as the risk of currency fluctuations. These risks are magnified in countries with emerging markets, since these countries may have relatively unstable governments and less established markets and economics.

Investing in smaller companies involves greater risks not associated with investing in more established companies, such as business risk, significant stock price fluctuations and illiquidity.

Factors affecting commodities generally, index components composed of futures contracts on nickel or copper, which are industrial metals, may be subject to a number of additional factors specific to industrial metals that might cause price volatility. These include changes in the level of industrial activity using industrial metals (including the availability of substitutes such as manmade or synthetic substitutes); disruptions in the supply chain, from mining to storage to smelting or refining; adjustments to inventory; variations in production costs, including storage, labor and energy costs; costs associated with regulatory compliance, including environmental regulations; and changes in industrial, government and consumer demand, both in individual consuming nations and internationally. Index components concentrated in futures contracts on agricultural products, including grains, may be subject to a number of additional factors specific to agricultural products that might cause price volatility. These include weather conditions, including floods, drought and freezing conditions; changes in government policies; planting decisions; and changes in demand for agricultural products, both with end users and as inputs into various industries.

The information contained herein is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the risks, strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Readers interested in the strategies or concepts should consult their tax, legal, or other advisors, as appropriate.

Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) and sustainable investing may limit the type and number of investment opportunities, and, as a result may affect performance relative to other approaches that do not impose similar sustainability criteria. Sustainable investment products are subject to availability. Certain sustainable investment opportunities may not be available in all regions or not available at all. No guarantee is provided regarding the financial or sustainability performance of such products and the products may not meet their investment or sustainability objectives.

There is currently no globally accepted framework or definition (legal, regulatory or otherwise) nor market consensus as to what constitutes, an “ESG”, “sustainable”, “impact” or an equivalently labelled product, or regarding what precise attributes are required for a particular investment, product or asset to be defined as such. Different persons may arrive at varied conclusions when evaluating the sustainability attributes of a product or any of its underlying investments. Certain jurisdictional laws and regulations require classifications of investment products against their own sustainability definitions and as such there is likely to be a degree of divergence as to the meaning of such terms. For example, the term “sustainable investing” where used in this disclosure is by reference to CGWI’s internal framework rather than any defined meaning under jurisdictional laws and regulations. There is no guarantee that investing in these products will have a sustainability impact.

There are numerous ESG data providers that evaluate companies on their ESG performance and provide reports, ratings, and benchmarks. Report, rating and benchmark methodology, scope, and coverage, vary greatly among providers. ESG data may not be available for all companies, securities, or geographies and as such, may not necessarily be reliable or complete. Such data will also be subject to various limitations, including (inter alia): i) limitations in the third-party data provider’s methodologies; ii) data lags, data coverage gaps or other issues impacting the quality of the data; iii) the fact that there are divergent views, approaches, methodologies and disclosure standards in the market, including among data providers, with respect to the identification, assessment, disclosure or determination of “ESG” factors or indicators and which precise attributes are required for a particular investment, product or asset to be defined as such; iv) the fact that ESG information, including where obtained from third-party data providers, may be based on qualitative or subjective assessment, and any one data source may not in itself represent a complete ‘picture’ for the ESG metric that it represents; v) the fact that such data may be subject to change without any notice of this to CGWI by the third-party data provider or other source. Furthermore, some of the data CGWI obtain from third-party providers is not obtained directly from investee companies, but rather represents estimated / proxy data that the third-party data provider has prepared using its own proprietary methodologies (e.g. because there is no actual investee company data). Such proprietary methodologies are also subject to various limitations of their own, acknowledging that estimates / proxies are in and of themselves an inexact science. CGWI does not make any representation or warranty as to the completeness or accuracy of any such third-party data (whether actual or estimated), or of data that is generated using this third-party data. CGWI shall have no liability for any errors or omissions in the information where such information has been obtained from third parties or not.

COUNTRY DISCLOSURES

Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong / Singapore organized under the laws of U.S.A. with limited liability. This communication is distributed in Hong Kong by Citi Private Bank operating through Citibank N.A., Hong Kong Branch, which is registered in Hong Kong with the Securities and Futures Commission for Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities), Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) and Type 9 (asset management) regulated activities with CE No: (AAP937) or in Singapore by Citi Private Bank operating through Citibank, N.A., Singapore Branch which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Any questions in connection with the contents in this communication should be directed to registered or licensed representatives of the relevant aforementioned entity. The contents of this communication have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong or any regulatory authority in Singapore. This communication contains confidential and proprietary information and is intended only for recipient in accordance with accredited investors requirements in Singapore (as defined under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289 of Singapore) (the “Act”) and professional investors requirements in Hong Kong (as defined under the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Ordinance and its subsidiary legislation). For regulated asset management services, any mandate will be entered into only with Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch and/or Citibank, N.A. Singapore Branch, as applicable. Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch or Citibank, N.A., Singapore Branch may sub-delegate all or part of its mandate to another Citigroup affiliate or other branch of Citibank, N.A. Any references to named portfolio managers are for your information only, and this communication shall not be construed to be an offer to enter into any portfolio management mandate with any other Citigroup affiliate or other branch of Citibank, N.A. and, at no time will any other Citigroup affiliate or other branch of Citibank, N.A. or any other Citigroup affiliate enter into a mandate relating to the above portfolio with you. To the extent this communication is provided to clients who are booked and/or managed in Hong Kong: No other statement(s) in this communication shall operate to remove, exclude or restrict any of your rights or obligations of Citibank under applicable laws and regulations. Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch does not intend to rely on any provisions herein which are inconsistent with its obligations under the Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission, or which mis-describes the actual services to be provided to you.

Citibank, N.A. is incorporated in the United States of America and its principal regulators are the US Office of the Comptroller of Currency and Federal Reserve under US laws, which differ from Australian laws. Citibank, N.A. does not hold an Australian Financial Services License under the Corporations Act 2001 as it enjoys the benefit of an exemption under ASIC Class Order CO 03/1101 (remade as ASIC Corporations (Repeal and Transitional) Instrument 2016/396 and extended by ASIC Corporations (Amendment) Instrument 2024/497).

In the United Kingdom, Citibank N.A., London Branch (registered branch number BR001018), Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5LB, is authorized and regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (USA) and authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. The contact number for Citibank N.A., London Branch is +44 (0)20 7508 8000.

Citibank Europe plc (UK Branch) is a branch of Citibank Europe plc, which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and the European Central Bank. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Citibank Europe plc, UK Branch is registered as a branch in the register of companies for England and Wales with registered branch number BR017844. Its registered address is Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB. VAT No.: GB 429 6256 29. Citibank Europe plc is registered in Ireland with number 132781, with its registered office at 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1. Citibank Europe plc is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Ultimately owned by Citigroup Inc., New York, USA.

Citibank Europe plc, Luxembourg Branch, registered with the Luxembourg Trade and Companies Register under number B 200204, is a branch of Citibank Europe plc. It is subject to the joint supervision of the European Central bank and the Central Bank of Ireland. It is furthermore subject to limited regulation by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (the CSSF) in its role as host Member State authority and registered with the CSSF under number B00000395. Its business office is at 31, Z.A. Bourmicht, 8070 Bertrange, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. Citibank Europe plc is registered in Ireland with company registration number 132781. It is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland under the reference number C26553 and supervised by the European Central Bank. Its registered office is at 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Ireland.

This document is communicated by Citibank (Switzerland) AG, which has its registered address at Hardstrasse 201, 8005 Zurich, Citibank N.A., Zurich Branch, which has its registered address at Hardstrasse 201, 8005 Zurich, or Citibank N.A., Geneva Branch, which has its registered address at 2, Quai de la Poste, 1204 Geneva. Citibank (Switzerland) AG and Citibank, N.A., Zurich and Geneva Branches are authorised and supervised by the Swiss Financial Supervisory Authority (FINMA).

In Jersey, this document is communicated by Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch which has its registered address at PO Box 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8QB. Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Citibank N.A. Jersey Branch is a participant in the Jersey Bank Depositors Compensation Scheme. The Scheme offers protection for eligible deposits of up to £50,000. The maximum total amount of compensation is capped at £100,000,000 in any 5-year period. Full details of the Scheme and banking groups covered are available on the States of Jersey website www.gov.je/dcs, or on request.

Citi may offer, issue, distribute or provide other services in relation to certain unsecured financial instruments issued or entered into by BRRD Entities (i.e., EU entities within the scope of Directive 2014/59/EU (the BRRD), including EU credit institutions, certain EU investment firms and / or their EU subsidiaries or parents) (BRRD Financial Instruments).

In various jurisdictions (including, without limitation, the European Union and the United States) national authorities have certain powers to manage and resolve banks, broker dealers and other financial institutions (including, but not limited to, Citi) when they are failing or likely to fail. There is a risk that the use, or anticipated use, of such powers, or the manner in which they are exercised, may materially adversely affect (i) your rights under certain types of unsecured financial instruments (including, without limitation, BRRD Financial Instruments), (ii) the value, volatility or liquidity of certain unsecured financial instruments (including, without limitation, BRRD Financial Instruments) that you hold and / or (iii) the ability of an institution (including, without limitation, a BRRD Entity) to satisfy any liabilities or obligations it has to you. In the event of resolution, the value of BRRD Financial Instruments may be reduced to zero and or liabilities may be converted into ordinary shares or other instruments of ownership for the purposes of stabilisation and loss absorption. The terms of existing BRRD Financial Instruments (e.g., date of maturity or interest rates payable) could be altered and payments could be suspended.

There can be no assurance that the use of any BRRD resolution tools or powers by the BRRD Resolution Authority or the manner in which they are exercised will not materially adversely affect your rights as a holder of BRRD Financial Instruments, the market value of any investment you may have in BRRD Financial Instruments and/or a BRRD Entity’s ability to satisfy any liabilities or obligations it has to you. You may have a right to compensation from the relevant authorities if the exercise of such resolution powers results in less favourable treatment for you than the treatment that you would have received under normal insolvency proceedings. By accepting any services from Citi, you confirm that you are aware of these risks.

Canada - Citi Private Bank is a business of Citigroup Inc. (“Citigroup”), which provides its clients access to a broad array of products and services available through bank and non-bank affiliates of Citigroup. Not all products and services are provided by all affiliates or are available at all locations.

In Canada, Citi Private Bank is a division of Citibank Canada, a Schedule II Canadian chartered bank. References herein to Citi Private Bank and its activities in Canada relate solely to Citibank Canada and do not refer to any affiliates or subsidiaries of Citibank Canada operating in Canada. Certain investment products are made available through Citibank Canada Investment Funds Limited (“CCIFL”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Citibank Canada. Investment Products are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Investment Products are not insured by the CDIC, FDIC or depository insurance regime of any jurisdiction and are not guaranteed by Citigroup or any affiliate thereof.

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities to any person in any jurisdiction. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially.

Citigroup, its affiliates and any of the officers, directors, employees, representatives or agents shall not be held liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, or consequential damages, including loss of profits, arising out of the use of information contained herein, including through errors whether caused by negligence or otherwise.

CCIFL is not currently a member and does not intend to become a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (“CIRO”); consequently, clients of CCIFL will not have available to them investor protection benefits that would otherwise derive from membership of CCIFL in the CIRO, including coverage under any investor protection plan for clients of members of the CIRO.

Bahrain: IN BAHRAIN, CITI PRIVATE BANK OPERATES UNDER SPECIFIC APPROVAL ISSUED ON THE BASIS OF CITIBANK, N.A., BAHRAIN BRANCH’S BANKING LICENSE

Marketing and distribution of Investment Funds to clients in Bahrain requires Notification to the Central Bank of Bahrain and will be limited to UHNWI as defined below. Minimum investment subscription criteria will apply for products for all subscriptions for Bahrain domiciled clients.

Ultra-high net worth investors are:

(a) Individuals who have a minimum net worth (or joint net worth with their spouse) of USD 25 million or more

(b) Companies, partnerships, trusts or other commercial undertakings, which have financial assets available for investment of not less than USD 25 million; or

(c) Governments, supranational organisations, central banks or other national monetary authorities, and state organisations whose main activity is to invest in financial instruments (such as state pension funds).

CONSUMER BANKING MARKET SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES

Hong Kong: This communication is distributed in Hong Kong by Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited ("CHKL") and/or Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch (“CBNA HK”, Citibank, N.A. is organized under the laws of U.S.A. with limited liability). CHKL and CBNA HK provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this communication. Although information in this communication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CHKL and CBNA HK do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.

This communication is for general information only, is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any products or services and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has not taken account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the suitability of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs, and should seek independent advice before making an investment decision. You should obtain and consider the relevant product terms and conditions and risk disclosure statement, and consider if it’s suitable for your objectives, financial situation or needs before making any investment decision. Investors are advised to obtain independent legal, financial and taxation advice prior to investing. Investments are not deposits, are not protected by the Deposit Protection Scheme in Hong Kong and are subject to investment risk including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.

This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information in any jurisdiction in which it is unlawful to distribute such information to any person in such jurisdiction.

CHKL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

Singapore: This communication is distributed in Singapore by Citibank Singapore Limited (“CSL”) to selected Citigold/Citigold Private Clients. CSL provides no independent research or analysis of the substance or in preparation of this communication. Please contact your Citigold/Citigold Private Client Relationship Manager in CSL if you have any queries on or any matters arising from or in connection with this communication. Investment products are not insured under the provisions of the Deposit Insurance and Policy Owners’ Protection Schemes Act of Singapore and are not eligible for deposit insurance coverage under the Deposit Insurance Scheme.

This communication is for general information only and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has no regard to the specific objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person and is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Any person interested in the strategies or concepts mentioned herein should consult their independent tax, legal, financial or other advisors, as appropriate. This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to distribute such information or make any offer or solicitation.

Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Interested investors should seek the advice of their financial adviser about the issues discussed herein as appropriate. Should investors choose not to seek such advice, they should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives and assess whether the investment product is suitable for themselves. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CSL does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.

CSL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

UAE: This document is distributed in UAE by Citibank, N.A. UAE. Citibank N.A. UAE is licensed by UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (“SCA”) to undertake the financial activity as Promoter under license number 602003.

Citibank N.A. UAE is registered with Central Bank of UAE under license numbers BSD/504/83 for Al Wasl Branch Dubai, 13/184/2019 for Mall of the Emirates Branch Dubai, BSD/2819/9 for Sharjah Branch, and BSD/692/83 for Abu Dhabi Branch.

This is not an official statement of Citigroup Inc. and may not reflect all of your investments with or made through Citibank. For an accurate record of your accounts and transactions, please consult your official statement. Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives. At any time, Citigroup companies may compensate affiliates and their representatives for providing products and services to clients.

United Kingdom: This document is distributed in the U.K. by Citibank UK Limited and in Jersey by Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch.

Citibank UK Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Our firm’s Financial Services Register number is 805574. Citibank UK Limited is a company limited by shares registered in England and Wales with registered address at Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB, Companies House Registration No. 11283101.

Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Citi International Personal Bank is registered in Jersey as a business name of Citibank N.A. The address of Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is P.O. Box 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8QB. Citibank N.A. is incorporated with limited liability in the USA. Head office: 399 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10043, USA.

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