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Citi Wealth Insights

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2021 Annual Outlook: New Economic Cycle, New Opportunities

The year 2020 has seen its fair share of major events – from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic to the recent US Preside...
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Keeping a Mindful Watch

While Citi analysts are generally optimistic on the economic recovery, investors should remain mindful of political risks that could add to potential market volatility.
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A More Positive Risk Backdrop Could See USD Weaken

A more positive backdrop for risk assets and FX in 2021 could put safe havens on the defensive, including the USD. Adding to the bearish USD outlook is the Federal Reserve’s ultra-dovish stance. A sustained Chinese economic recovery could support more positive expectations for the RMB.
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Is the Bull Cycle in Gold Still Intact?

2020 has been among the most volatile years for commodities, yet the basic picture for 2021 looks better. The current gold bull market could slow but not end provided the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stays accommodative and Citi analysts see gold prices averaging US$1,900/oz in 2021.
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Where are the Relative Yield Opportunities?

A sustained period of structurally low interest rates is likely to keep the demand for yield elevated. Citi analysts see selective opportunities in Emerging Market debt and US high yield bonds, which could continue to be supported by a recovery from the COVID-19 shock.
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An Improving Base Case

In the short term, “COVID-cyclicals” appear attractive for a potential recovery and rotation and global small and mid-caps could catch up. Over the longer-term, Citi analysts are in favor of “unstoppable trends” such as the Rise of Asia, Increasing Longevity and Digital Disruption. A new long-term theme is the rising importance of climate change and ESG investing.
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