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CitiFX weekly house views and strategy - Oct 25, 2021

Latest weekly updates to the CitiFX house views and strategy
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US, euro area and UK PMIs – continuing rising price pressures the common theme

EUR: Euro area October flash composite PMI falls by 1.9pt to a 6-month low of 54.3 (Mkt. 55.2, Citi 55.0) and within that, the flash services PMI declines 1.7pt, also to a 6-month low of 54.7 (Mkt. 55.4, Citi 55.5) while the flash manufacturing PMI drops by 0.1pt to an 8-month low of 58.5 (Mkt. 57.1, Citi 57.0).
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Fed’s Beige book highlights emerging signs of inflation 2nd round effects in US

USD: Tight labor markets tangled up in Beige – the Fed’s “Beige Book” indicates tight labor markets in the US are leading to further wage increases that are broadening beyond entry level workers – a potential medium-term driver of inflation.
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Early thoughts on next week’s October BoC meeting

CAD: After the unexpected hawkish shift toward signaling earlier rate hikes by the Bank of England a few weeks ago, a key question becomes whether the Bank of Canada will be the next global central bank to make a similar switch.
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The Federal Reserve - will they hike or will they wait?

USD: US Treasury yields continue to rise with at one point, two full Fed 25bp rate hike implied by the end of 2022.
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China’s PBoC comments on property sector risks as “manageable” and rules out Q4 RRR cut

CNH: PBoC sees contagion risks surrounding Chinese property developers as “manageable”.
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