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Fixed Income

Fixed Income – Staying Selective

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  • US Treasuries (UST): Large scale fiscal packages have temporarily put a floor in long-dated yields while the Federal Reserve has cut rates to the zero lower bond, diminishing the appeal of cash. While renewed asset purchases may limit how far long-dated yields can ultimately rise, some rebound in rates could be expected in a cyclical recovery.

 

  • Investment Grade (IG) – US and Europe: Citi analysts see the beginning of a new economic cycle as supporting convictions towards lower quality, cyclical-oriented sectors in the US IG space. Investors are still being compensated with above-average spread pick-up when moving down credit quality within the IG space. As markets/economies continue to recover, these relationships are likely to narrow. In Europe, yield differentials versus the US have narrowed and look regionally attractively.

 

 

  • High Yield (HY) - US and Europe: Though spread compression has slowed, attractive yields in both US and European markets has fueled total returns of 24% and 19.5% respectively, since March lows. While uncertainties over the path of COVID-19 are likely to linger, current valuations and favorable central bank policy could support further tightening in spreads. Citi analysts note that the US HY market has become bifurcated between issuers/sectors more deeply affected by COVID-19, and others that are not hence a more selective approach is necessary. In Europe, Citi analysts also see similar price upside, with yields looking attractive in absolute terms against the average yield in the region.

 

  • Emerging Markets (EM): Fundamentals have deteriorated in USD EM, but a lot has been priced in. Geographical diversification in Asia and Latin America is preferred. Meanwhile, local currency EM yields have fallen to lowest levels on record, though EM FX remains volatile. Unhedged returns may eventually benefit from a prolonged period of Fed easing and USD weakness.

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