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FX

USD Selling Resumes

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Selling pressure on the USD resumed as the Federal Reserve acknowledged the risk of a more persistent slowing in inflation.

 

USD & JPY

View: USD to continue weakening against the G10 currencies

  • The more muted outlook for US inflation and heightened political risks within the Trump administration are likely to continue to weigh on the dollar. Citi analysts see the Dollar Index (DXY) approaching last year’s low of 91.90. EURUSD is expected to target 1.1876 while the USDJPY could head towards the 110.15-25 range.

 

 

EURO BLOC

View: Dips in euro well supported on crosses, upside for sterling limited.

  • The UK economy expanded 0.3% in the second quarter, barely up from the 0.2% growth in the first quarter, with manufacturing and construction acting as a drag on growth. In Citi’s view, the disappointing growth reduces the probability that the Bank of England would raise rates any time soon. This limits the sterling’s strength even as the dollar continues to weaken. The GBPUSD is likely to find it challenging to cross the 1.3219 level.

 

  • Comments from European Central Bank member Nowotny on the sluggish inflation in the euro zone kept the EURUSD relatively stable at 1.1700 despite the dollar’s weakness. However, Citi analysts believe that any dips in the euro are likely to be shallow. They favour seeking exposure in the euro against the dollar, as well as against the GBP and CHF.

 

 

COMMODITY BLOC

View: Limited upside for the AUD

  • Australia’s headline inflation rose 0.2% for the second quarter, below market expectations and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target level.  In his message yesterday, RBA Governor Lowe downplayed the importance of other central banks’ moves to tighten in recent months, suggesting the RBA is unlikely to hike rates anytime soon.   

 

  • Given the lackluster inflation reading and Lowe’s comments, the AUDUSD’s test of 0.8000 overnight was mainly driven by USD weakness.  Citi analysts believe that it would be challenging for the AUDUSD to cross 0.8019. Further strength in the AUD potentially presents an opportunity for investors to reduce their exposures.

 

 

EMERGING ASIA

View: The SGD to consolidate

  • The USDSGD traded below 1.3594 overnight on the back of USD weakness. In Citi’s view, with investors largely discounting the odds of tightening by the Monetary Authority of Singapore at the October meeting, further upside in the SGD appears limited. The USDSGD is likely to consolidate around 1.35 in the weeks ahead.

 

This is an extract from the Daily Currency Update, dated 27th July. Please approach a Citigold Relationship Manager if you would like a copy.

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MARKET SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES

Market Specific Disclosures

Hong Kong: This communication is distributed in Hong Kong by Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited ("CHKL") and/or Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch (“CBNA HK”, Citibank, N.A. is organized under the laws of U.S.A. with limited liability). CHKL and CBNA HK provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this communication. Although information in this communication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CHKL and CBNA HK do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.

This communication is for general information only, is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any products or services and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein
has not taken account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the suitability of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs,
and should seek independent advice before making an investment decision. You should obtain and consider the relevant product terms and conditions and risk disclosure statement, and consider if it’s suitable for your objectives, financial situation or needs before making any investment decision. Investors are advised to obtain independent legal, financial and taxation advice prior to investing. Investments are not deposits, are not protected by the Deposit Protection Scheme in Hong Kong
and are subject to investment risk including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.

This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information in any jurisdiction in which it is unlawful to distribute such information to any person in such jurisdiction.

CHKL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

Singapore: This communication is distributed in Singapore by Citibank Singapore Limited (“CSL”) to selected Citigold/Citigold Private Clients. CSL provides no independent research or analysis of the substance or in preparation of this communication. Please contact your Citigold/Citigold Private Client Relationship Manager in CSL if you have any queries on or any matters arising from or in connection with this communication. Investment products are not insured under
the provisions of the Deposit Insurance and Policy Owners’ Protection Schemes Act of Singapore and are not eligible for deposit insurance coverage under the Deposit Insurance Scheme.

This communication is for general information only and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has no regard to the specific objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person and is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Any person interested in the strategies or concepts mentioned herein should consult their independent tax, legal, financial or other advisors,
as appropriate. This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom
it is unlawful to distribute such information or make any offer or solicitation.

Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making
an investment decision. Interested investors should seek the advice of their financial adviser about the issues discussed herein as appropriate. Should investors choose not to seek such advice, they should carefully consider the risks associated
with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives and assess whether the investment product is suitable for
themselves. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CSL does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from Its use.

CSL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.

UAE: This document is distributed in UAE by Citibank, N.A. UAE. Citibank N.A. UAE is licensed by UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (“SCA”) to undertake the financial activity as Promoter under license number 602003.

Citibank N.A. UAE is registered with Central Bank of UAE under license numbers BSD/504/83 for Al Wasl Branch Dubai, 13/184/2019 for Mall of the Emirates Branch Dubai, BSD/2819/9 for Sharjah Branch, and BSD/692/83 for Abu Dhabi Branch.

This is not an official statement of Citigroup Inc. and may not reflect all of your investments with or made through Citibank. For an accurate record of your accounts and transactions, please consult your official statement. Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives.
At any time, Citigroup companies may compensate affiliates and their representatives for providing products and services to clients.

United Kingdom: This document is distributed in the U.K. by Citibank UK Limited and in Jersey by Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch.

Citibank UK Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Our firm’s Financial Services Register number is 805574. Citibank UK Limited
is a company limited by shares registered in England and Wales with registered address at Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB, Companies House Registration No. 11283101.

Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Citi International Personal Bank is registered in Jersey as a business name of Citibank N.A. The address of Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch is P.O. Box 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8QB. Citibank N.A. is incorporated with limited liability in the USA. Head office: 399 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10043, USA.

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