The Fed's average expectations for future rate hikes were adjusted higher in 2023 resulting in an inversion of the Treasury yield curve. The inversion typically signals a recession within 18 months. Amidst the negative economic backdrop, Citi presents three considerations that investors can look at in this climate.
*Some products and platforms are segment- or region-specific. Please check with your Relationship Manager for more details.
Important information
In any instance where distribution of this communication (“Communication”) is subject to the rules of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”), this communication constitutes an invitation to consider entering
into a derivatives transaction under US CFTC Regulations §§ 1.71 and 23.605, where applicable, but is not a binding offer to buy/sell any financial instrument.
This Communication is prepared by Citi Global Wealth Investments (“CGWI”) which is comprised of the Investments and Capital Markets capabilities of Citi Private Bank and Citi Global Wealth at Work.
Citi Private Bank and Citi Global Wealth at Work are businesses of Citigroup Inc. (“Citigroup”), which provide clients access to a broad array of products and services available through bank and non-bank affiliates of Citigroup. Not all products and services are provided by all affiliates or are available at all locations. In the U.S., investment products and services are provided by Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (“CGMI”), member FINRA and SIPC, Citi Private Advisory, LLC (“CPA”), member FINRA and SIPC, and Citi Global Alternatives, LLC (“CGA”). CPA acts as distributor of certain alternative investment products to certain eligible clients’ segments. CGMI accounts are carried by Pershing LLC, member FINRA, NYSE, SIPC. Investment management services (including portfolio management) are available through CGMI, CGA, Citibank, N.A. and other affiliated advisory businesses.
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CGWI personnel are not research analysts, and the information in this Communication is not intended to constitute “research”, as that term is defined by applicable regulations. Unless otherwise indicated, any reference to a research report or research recommendation is not intended to represent the whole report and is not in itself considered a recommendation or research report.
This Communication is provided for information and discussion purposes only, at the recipient’s request. The recipient should notify CGWI immediately should it at any time wish to cease being provided with such information.
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If it is not subject to the rules of the CFTC (but see discussion above regarding communication subject to CFTC rules) and (iii) it is not intended as an official confirmation of any transaction.
Unless otherwise expressly indicated, this Communication does not take into account the investment objectives, risk profile or financial situation of any particular person and as such, investments mentioned in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Citi is not acting as an investment or other advisor, fiduciary or agent. The information contained herein is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice.
Recipients of this Communication should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances from their own tax, financial, legal and other advisors about the risks and merits of any transaction before making an investment decision, and only make such decisions on the basis of their own objectives, experience, risk profile and resources.
The information contained in this Communication is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be assured, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. Any assumptions or information contained in this Communication constitute a judgment only as of the date of this document or on any specified dates and is subject to change without notice. Insofar as this Communication may contain historical and forward looking information, past performance is neither a guarantee nor an indication of future results, and future results may not meet expectations due to a variety of economic, market and other factors.
Further, any projections of potential risk or return are illustrative and should not be taken as limitations of the maximum possible loss or gain. Any prices, values or estimates provided in this Communication (other than those that are identified
as being historical) are indicative only, may change without notice and do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size, nor reflect the value Citi may assign a security in its inventory. Forward looking information does not indicate a level
at which Citi is prepared to do a trade and may not account for all relevant assumptions and future conditions. Actual conditions may vary substantially from estimates which could have a negative impact on the value of an instrument.
Views, opinions and estimates expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other Citi businesses or affiliates, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, or investment advice, and are subject to change without notice based on market and other conditions. Citi is under no duty to update this document and accepts no liability for any loss (whether direct, indirect or consequential) that may arise from any use of the information contained in or derived from this Communication.
None of the financial instruments or other products mentioned in this Communication (unless expressly stated otherwise) is (i) insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other governmental authority, or (ii) deposits or other obligations of, or guaranteed by, Citi or any other insured depository institution.
Citi often acts as an issuer of financial instruments and other products, acts as a market maker and trades as principal in many different financial instruments and other products, and can be expected to perform or seek to perform investment banking and other services for the issuer of such financial instruments or other products. The author of this Communication may have discussed the information contained therein with others within or outside Citi, and the author and/or such other Citi personnel may have already acted on the basis of this information (including by trading for Citi's proprietary accounts or communicating the information contained herein to other customers of Citi). Citi, Citi's personnel (including those with whom the author may have consulted in the preparation of this communication), and other customers of Citi may be long or short the financial instruments or other products referred to in this Communication, may have acquired such positions at prices and market conditions that are no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests.
IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: Citi and its employees are not in the business of providing, and do not provide, tax or legal advice to any taxpayer outside Citi. Any statement in this Communication regarding tax matters is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used or relied upon, by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties. Any such taxpayer should seek advice based on the taxpayer’s particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor.
Neither Citi nor any of its affiliates can accept responsibility for the tax treatment of any investment product, whether or not the investment is purchased by a trust or company administered by an affiliate of Citi. Citi assumes that, before making any commitment to invest, the investor and (where applicable, its beneficial owners) have taken whatever tax, legal or other advice the investor/beneficial owners consider necessary and have arranged to account for any tax lawfully due on the income or gains arising from any investment product provided by Citi.
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Other businesses within Citigroup Inc. and affiliates of Citigroup Inc. may give advice, make recommendations, and take action in the interest of their clients, or for their own accounts, that may differ from the views expressed in this document.
All expressions of opinion are current as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Citigroup Inc. is not obligated to provide updates or changes to the information contained in this document.
The expressions of opinion are not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Real results may vary.
Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Citigroup Inc. and its affiliates do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. Throughout this publication where charts indicate that a third party (parties) is the source, please note that the attributed may refer to the raw data received from such parties. No part of this document may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means, or distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director, or authorized agent of the recipient without Citigroup Inc.’s prior written consent.
Citigroup Inc. may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person in connection with transactions placed by Citigroup Inc. for its clients involving securities that are the subject of this document or future editions of the document.
RISKS
Investments in financial instruments or other products carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Financial instruments or other products denominated in a foreign currency are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which may have an adverse effect on the price or value of an investment in such products. This Communication does not purport to identify all risks or material considerations which may be associated with entering into any transaction.
Structured products can be highly illiquid and are not suitable for all investors. Additional information can be found in the disclosure documents of the issuer for each respective structured product described herein. Investing in structured products is intended only for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks of such an investment. Investors should carefully review and consider potential risks before investing.
OTC derivative transactions involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investment products are not insured, carry no bank or government guarantee and may lose value. Before entering into these transactions, you should: (i) ensure that you have obtained and considered relevant information from independent reliable sources concerning the financial, economic and political conditions of the relevant markets; (ii) determine that you have the necessary knowledge, sophistication and experience in financial, business and investment matters to be able to evaluate the risks involved, and that you are financially able to bear such risks; and (iii) determine, having considered the foregoing points, that capital markets transactions are suitable and appropriate for your financial, tax, business and investment objectives.
This material may mention options regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Before buying or selling options you should obtain and review the current version of the Options Clearing Corporation booklet, Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. A copy of the booklet can be obtained upon request from Citigroup Global Markets Inc., 390 Greenwich Street, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10013.
If you buy options, the maximum loss is the premium. If you sell put options, the risk is the entire notional below the strike. If you sell call options, the risk is unlimited. The actual profit or loss from any trade will depend on the price at which the trades are executed. The prices used herein are historical and may not be available when you order is entered. Commissions and other transaction costs are not considered in these examples. Option trades in general and these trades in particular may not be appropriate for every investor. Unless noted otherwise, the source of all graphs and tables in this report is Citi. Because of the importance of tax considerations to all option transactions, the investor considering options should consult with his/her tax advisor as to how their tax situation is affected by the outcome of contemplated options transactions.
Bonds are affected by a number of risks, including fluctuations in interest rates, credit risk and prepayment risk. In general, as prevailing interest rates rise, fixed income securities prices will fall. Bonds face credit risk if a decline in an issuer’s credit rating, or creditworthiness, causes a bond’s price to decline. High yield bonds are subject to additional risks such as increased risk of default and greater volatility because of the lower credit quality of the issues. Finally, bonds can be subject
to prepayment risk. When interest rates fall, an issuer may choose to borrow money at a lower interest rate, while paying off its previously issued bonds. As a consequence, underlying bonds will lose the interest payments from the investment and will be forced to reinvest in a market where prevailing interest rates are lower than when the initial investment was made.
(MLP’s) - Energy Related MLPs May Exhibit High Volatility. While not historically very volatile, in certain market environments Energy Related MLPS may exhibit high volatility.
Changes in Regulatory or Tax Treatment of Energy Related MLPs. If the IRS changes the current tax treatment of the master limited partnerships included in the Basket of Energy Related MLPs thereby subjecting them to higher rates of taxation, or if other regulatory authorities enact regulations which negatively affect the ability of the master limited partnerships to generate income or distribute dividends to holders of common units, the return on the Notes, if any, could be dramatically reduced. Investment in a basket of Energy Related MLPs may expose the investor to concentration risk due to industry, geographical, political, and regulatory concentration.
Mortgage-backed securities ("MBS"), which include collateralized mortgage obligations ("CMOs"), also referred to as real estate mortgage investment conduits ("REMICs"), may not be suitable for all investors. There is the possibility of early return of principal due to mortgage prepayments, which can reduce expected yield and result in reinvestment risk. Conversely, return of principal may be slower than initial prepayment speed assumptions, extending the average life of the security up to its listed maturity date (also referred to as extension risk).
Additionally, the underlying collateral supporting non-Agency MBS may default on principal and interest payments. In certain cases, this could cause the income stream of the security to decline and result
in loss of principal. Further, an insufficient level of credit support may result in a downgrade of a mortgage bond's credit rating and lead to a higher probability of principal loss and increased price volatility. Investments in subordinated MBS involve greater credit risk of default than the senior classes of the same issue. Default risk may be pronounced in cases where the MBS security is secured by, or evidencing an interest in, a relatively small or less diverse pool of underlying mortgage loans.
MBS are also sensitive to interest rate changes which can negatively impact the market value of the security. During times of heightened volatility, MBS can experience greater levels of illiquidity and larger price movements. Price volatility may also occur from other factors including, but not limited to, prepayments, future prepayment expectations, credit concerns, underlying collateral performance and technical changes in the market.
Alternative investments referenced in this report are speculative and entail significant risks that can include losses due to leveraging or other speculative investment practices, lack of liquidity, volatility of returns, restrictions on transferring interests in the fund, potential lack of diversification, absence of information regarding valuations and pricing, complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting, less regulation and higher fees than mutual funds and advisor risk.
Asset allocation does not assure a profit or protect against a loss in declining financial markets.
The indexes are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
International investing entails greater risk, as well as greater potential rewards compared to US investing. These risks include political and economic uncertainties of foreign countries as well as the risk of currency fluctuations. These risks are magnified in countries with emerging markets, since these countries may have relatively unstable governments and less established markets and economics.
Investing in smaller companies involves greater risks not associated with investing in more established companies, such as business risk, significant stock price fluctuations and illiquidity.
Factors affecting commodities generally, index components composed of futures contracts on nickel or copper, which are industrial metals, may be subject to a number of additional factors specific to industrial metals that might cause price volatility. These include changes in the level of industrial activity using industrial metals (including the availability of substitutes such as manmade or synthetic substitutes); disruptions in the supply chain, from mining to storage to smelting
or refining; adjustments to inventory; variations in production costs, including storage, labor and energy costs; costs associated with regulatory compliance, including environmental regulations; and changes in industrial, government and consumer demand, both in individual consuming nations and internationally. Index components concentrated in futures contracts on agricultural products, including grains, may be subject to a number of additional factors specific to agricultural products that might cause price volatility. These include weather conditions, including floods, drought and freezing conditions; changes in government policies; planting decisions; and changes in demand for agricultural products, both with end users and
as inputs into various industries.
The information contained herein is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Readers interested in the strategies or concepts should consult their tax, legal, or other advisors, as appropriate.
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Different asset classes present different risks.
COUNTRY DISCLOSURES
Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong / Singapore organized under the laws of U.S.A. with limited liability. This communication is distributed in Hong Kong by Citi Private Bank operating through Citibank N.A., Hong Kong Branch, which is registered in Hong Kong with the Securities and Futures Commission for Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities), Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) and Type 9 (asset management) regulated activities with CE No: (AAP937) or in Singapore by Citi Private Bank operating through Citibank, N.A., Singapore Branch which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Any questions in connection with the contents in this communication should be directed to registered or licensed representatives of the relevant aforementioned entity. The contents of this communication have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong or any regulatory authority in Singapore. This communication contains confidential and proprietary information and is intended only for recipient in accordance with accredited investors requirements in Singapore (as defined under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289 of Singapore) (the “Act”) and professional investors requirements in Hong Kong(as defined under the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Ordinance and its subsidiary legislation). For regulated asset management services, any mandate will be entered into only with Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch and/or Citibank, N.A. Singapore Branch, as applicable.
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Its business office is at 31, Z.A. Bourmicht, 8070 Bertrange, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. Citibank Europe plc is registered in Ireland with company registration number 132781. It is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland under the reference number C26553 and supervised by the European Central Bank. Its registered office is at 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Ireland.
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There can be no assurance that the use of any BRRD resolution tools or powers by the BRRD Resolution Authority or the manner in which they are exercised will not materially adversely affect your rights as a holder of BRRD Financial Instruments, the market value of any investment you may have in BRRD Financial Instruments and/or a BRRD Entity’s ability to satisfy any liabilities or obligations it has to you. You may have a right to compensation from the relevant authorities if the exercise of such resolution powers results in less favourable treatment for you than the treatment that you would have received under normal insolvency proceedings. By accepting any services from Citi, you confirm that you are aware of these risks.
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This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities to any person in any jurisdiction. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially.
This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities to any person in any jurisdiction. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially.
Citigroup, its affiliates and any of the officers, directors, employees, representatives or agents shall not be held liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, or consequential damages, including loss of profits, arising out of the use of information contained herein, including through errors whether caused by negligence or otherwise.
CCIFL is not currently a member, and does not intend to become a member of the Mutual Fund Dealers Association of Canada (“MFDA”); consequently, clients of CCIFL will not have available to them investor protection benefits that would otherwise derive from membership of CCIFL in the MFDA, including coverage under any investor protection plan for clients of members of the MFDA.
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Ultra-high net worth investors are:
(a) Individuals who have a minimum net worth (or joint net worth with their spouse) of USD 25 million or more
(b) Companies, partnerships, trusts or other commercial undertakings, which have financial assets available for investment of not less than USD 25 million; or
(c) Governments, supranational organisations, central banks or other national monetary authorities, and state organisations whose main activity is to invest in financial instruments (such as state pension funds).
GLOBAL CONSUMER BANK (ASIA PACIFIC AND EMEA):
“Citi analysts” refer to investment professionals within Citi Research (“CR”), Citi Global Markets Inc. (“CGMI”), Citi Global Wealth Investments (“CGWI”) and voting members of the Citi Global Investment Committee.
Citibank N.A. and its affiliates / subsidiaries provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this document.
The information in this document has been obtained from reports issued by CGMI and CGWI. Such information is based on sources CGMI and CGWI believe to be reliable. CGMI and CGWI, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and it may
be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute CGMI and CGWI's judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. This document is for general information purposes only and is not intended
as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or currency. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the written consent of Citibank N.A. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the appropriateness of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of a particular investment. Investments are not deposits, are not obligations of, or guaranteed or insured by Citibank N.A., Citigroup Inc., or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries, or by any local government or insurance agency, and are subject to investment risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Investors investing in funds denominated in non-local currency should be aware
of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause a loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, prices can go up or down. Investment products are not available to US persons. Investors should be aware
that it is his/her responsibility to seek legal and/or tax advice regarding the legal and tax consequences of his/her investment transactions. If an investor changes residence, citizenship, nationality, or place of work, it is his/her responsibility
to understand how his/her investment transactions are affected by such change and comply with all applicable laws and regulations as and when such becomes applicable. Citibank does not provide legal and/or tax advice and is not responsible
for advising an investor on the laws pertaining to his/her transaction.
Citi Research (CR) is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For more information, please refer to https://www.citivelocity.com/cvr/eppublic/citi_research_disclosures.
MARKET SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES
Market Specific Disclosures
Hong Kong: This communication is distributed in Hong Kong by Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited ("CHKL") and/or Citibank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch (“CBNA HK”, Citibank, N.A. is organized under the laws of U.S.A. with limited liability). CHKL and CBNA HK provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this communication. Although information in this communication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, CHKL and CBNA HK do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept no liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use.
This communication is for general information only, is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any products or services and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein
has not taken account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the suitability of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs,
and should seek independent advice before making an investment decision. You should obtain and consider the relevant product terms and conditions and risk disclosure statement, and consider if it’s suitable for your objectives, financial situation or needs before making any investment decision. Investors are advised to obtain independent legal, financial and taxation advice prior to investing. Investments are not deposits, are not protected by the Deposit Protection Scheme in Hong Kong
and are subject to investment risk including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.
This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information in any jurisdiction in which it is unlawful to distribute such information to any person in such jurisdiction.
CHKL does not provide discretionary portfolio management services.
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the provisions of the Deposit Insurance and Policy Owners’ Protection Schemes Act of Singapore and are not eligible for deposit insurance coverage under the Deposit Insurance Scheme.
This communication is for general information only and should not be relied upon as financial advice. The information herein has no regard to the specific objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person and is not intended to be an exhaustive discussion of the strategies or concepts mentioned herein or tax or legal advice. Any person interested in the strategies or concepts mentioned herein should consult their independent tax, legal, financial or other advisors,
as appropriate. This communication does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom
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Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making
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