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Citi Wealth Insights

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Germany cuts growth outlook as expected but ECB’s Novotny pushes back on rates tiering

Germany’s government announces a cut to its growth forecast for 2019 to 0.5% vs 1.0% prior and 0.8% forecast by IMF and private research institutes.
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RBA Minutes suggest rate cuts are not imminent

RBA keeps calm and carries on – Citi analysts remain highly skeptical of the “heated” debate among RBA watchers about whether changes to the final paragraph of the RBA statement signaled earlier in March represents a more dovish policy guidance.
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Softer US data but relatively upbeat Fed speak maintains the risk positive backdrop

The forward looking US Empire manufacturing for April released overnight is up at 10.1 vs 8.0 expected though details are not as strong as the headline suggests.
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The powerful credit expansion in January marked a major turning point

The China/greater China sector has had a stellar 1Q, with China H-shares and A-shares rallying 12.4% and 28.7%, respectively.
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Strong Credit Data to Reprice Easing Expectations

Money growth rebounded strongly - M2 growth jumped by 0.6pp to 8.6%YoY in Mar, much higher than market expectations (Citi/Mkt: 8.2%YoY).
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Solid Chinese data and imminent US – China trade deal to support a stronger risk backdrop in Q2 & lessen demand for safe haven USD & JPY

Friday’s solid positive data from China sets up the coming weeks for further gains in risk assets including Asia EM FX led by CNY and commodity FX.
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