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Citi Wealth Insights

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US – China tensions spike, relations hit a new low

CNY: China’s NPC introduces a new security law for HK. Local reports suggest the proposal does not trigger the controversial Article 23, but would put a new security law into Annex 3 of the Basic Law.
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Fed, BoC & RBNZ push back on negative rates; Australia – China tensions escalate

USD: FOMC Minutes – More guidance on rates, purchases coming -
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Risk sentiment flat as vaccine hopes downplayed but talk of phase 4 fiscal stimulus gathers pace

USD: The broad based USD Index (DXY) is flat overnight as a STAT "expert report" downplays results of a US drug maker trial which had boosted risk sentiment Monday.
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A solid risk rally on vaccine hopes, re-opening news and higher oil prices leaves USD sharply weaker

USD: DXY falls ~0.75% overnight, marking the largest daily decline since late March on vaccine hopes –
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A Likely Slower Grind Higher for Gold

Citi analysts remain medium-term bullish on gold, but see a likely slower grind higher, expecting 2020’s prices to average US$1,680/oz.
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Investment Strategies for Volatile Markets

Citi analysts believe the 31% rally in just almost 2 months, since the 23 March lows may limit future return opportunities for the S&P 500. Looking out into the next economic cycle, Citi analysts see potentially more attractive opportunities outside of US large caps in areas which have not participated as strongly in the rebound.
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