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Citi Wealth Insights

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Most FOMC members lean towards a more hawkish bias ahead of Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers tonight

Fed speak decidedly leans toward a more hawkish bias - Fed's Esther George (voter, hawk - and recent dissenter) remains resolutely hawkish. Key highlights -
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Jackson Hole more important than stale FOMC minutes

Minutes from the July 30-31st FOMC meeting overnight are sufficiently stale as to not move expectations for monetary policy.
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President Trump’s objective of weakening USD unlikely to succeed by Fed rate cuts alone

Fed speak rails against President Trump’s comments for the Fed to cut a further 100bp and entertain QE
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Safe Havens (JPY, CHF & Gold): Appeal for safe havens fade as talk of fiscal (plus monetary) policy stimulus gains

White House rubbishes talk of an imminent US recession while raising speculation of possible fiscal stimulus from a payroll tax cut....
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Temporary Reprieve from Delay in Tariffs

While risk assets generally cheered the delay of tariffs on a multitude of Chinese goods, Citi analysts think that the delay serves to prolong trade tensions between US and China.
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Keep the Yield Curve Inversion in Perspective

While the 3 month Treasury bill – 10 year Treasury bond yield curve has been inverted since March, the 2-10 year Treasury yield curve recently inverted for the first time since 2007, spooking investors into de-risking.
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