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Citi Wealth Insights

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Markets consolidate overnight but risk sentiment to likely continue to be weighed by Coronavirus and US political developments

Safe Havens (Gold, JPY, CHF) & USD: Markets pause overnight as Xinhua reports (citing a Chinese respiratory scientist) the coronavirus outbreak may reach its peak in 7-10 days.
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Viewing the Wuhan Virus in Context

Viewing the Wuhan Virus in Context

The new coronavirus is likely to prove considerably less deadly overall than the common seasonal flu. Despite this, the precautionary measures taken to fight such outbreaks - such as travel bans and quarantines - have significant short-term negative economic effects.
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Solid tactical bid into Safe Havens & USD continues as Coronavirus/ US political risks take center stage

Safe Havens (Gold, JPY, CHF) & USD: It’s a somber start to the week, with Coronavirus and US political headlines combined with holidays in much of Asia making for a negative mix overnight.
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ECB statement mildly hawkish over its medium term assessment; Stronger jobs growth and inflation lifts AUD and NZD respectively

EUR: ECB Board meeting statement slightly more upbeat; Key highlights –
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A solid UK CBI survey of manufacturing reduces odds of a January BoE rate cut; Euro hampered near term by Italian politics

GBP: Cable trades back up through 1.3100 overnight and EURGBP breaks below 0.8450 as the UK CBI survey of 300 manufacturing firms reports a stellar recovery in UK business optimism at the fastest pace since April 2014.
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Revisiting the case for a structural allocation to Safe Havens as uncertainties mount; USD negative political risks underappreciated

Safe Havens (JPY & Gold): JPY is the primary mover overnight, strengthening in the market’s reaction to China virus headlines.
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