Attention this week turns to US jobs data, the looming US government shutdown and the auto workers strike
By Citi Wealth Insights |
USD: The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation (core PCE inflation) registers 0.145%MoM in August, the third consecutive softer monthly reading and bringing the yearly gain to 3.9% which represents the lowest annual rise since May 2021. Core PCE services ex-housing is also up just 0.14%MoM after surging 0.47%MoM in July.
Bank of Japan’s mixed messages likely a green light to tactically drive Yen towards 150 against USD
By Citi Wealth Insights |
JPY: The BoJ leaves its monetary settings unchanged at its September MPM on Friday while also keepings its forward guidance unchanged. The BOJ continues to note “extremely high uncertainty surrounding economies and financial markets at home and abroad,” (the same language as July) which makes it difficult to make sweeping policy changes.
CIO believes European markets have priced in an economic slowdown, but not a recession. If there was a further significant reduction to gas flow to Europe, CIO could expect another 10% contraction in European EPS over the next 12 months and further downside to European markets, especially across energy sensitive sectors.
Second wave infections are still rising in several European countries. However fatalities are not rising at the same pace as in wave one, partly because of progress with treatments and also more hospital capacity. Recent vaccine news from pharmaceutical companies are also positive-looking towards the second half of 2021. Lockdowns are likely to be for shorter periods than 2Q and measures are softer.
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(MLP’s) - Energy Related MLPs May Exhibit High Volatility. While not historically very volatile, in certain market environments Energy Related MLPS may exhibit high volatility.
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